Onwards...

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Warmer weather could last until October, Met Office says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45085034.

 

Warmer weather could last until October, Met Office says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45085034.

 

If that’s anything to go by, the summer haters are going to be very quiet for the next couple of months.

I’m sure it won’t turn out that way. It would be an exceptional case if this month is followed by two further dry and settled months.

 

Not UK weather but with regards to the heatwave in the Northern Hemisphere - This time it's Canada's turn.:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/western-us-canada-gusty-winds-to-accompany-late-week-heat-relief-perpetuating-wildfire-threat/70005724

 

Calgary, AB could break the all time record and hit a high of 38c and Medicine hat could hit +40c, Whilst Saskatoon, Saskatchewan could hit +39c 

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Warmer weather could last until October, Met Office says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45085034.

 

 

Just hope this continues into the winter then because a blocked pattern in summer giving anticyclonic weather conditions mean dry and warm weather which usually means cold and dry in winter but depending on the positioning of the HP - an easterly could be very raw and cold come November! Just will this pattern last longer? - Let's face it? - Since the SSW which gave us the blocking and provided us x2 - 3 bouts of snow /blizzards in March - we never really saw the return of the Atlantic did we - this was 5 months ago right? - All we need to wait is 4 months time and then we are into winter we could be seeing some really severed extensive frost.  The only caveat would be that the continent would still be warm and may take a while to cool down.

Fewer Hurricanes or even tropical storms - I mean where are they ? to stir up Atlantic? -See what I mean - these are all factors. Looks like Sat into Sunday will be our first appreciable amounts of rain for months!! 

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/weather-forecast/178087 

AccuWeather issues a severe warning for heat in Berlin and most of central and eastern Germany

https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/weather-warnings-13646/178087 

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BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 8 August—Sunday 12 August

Fresher than recently with some showers for most

The remainder of this week will be fresher than recently, particularly over central and southeastern England which experienced a hot start to the week. On Wednesday, much of the UK will have spells of sunshine but there will be scattered showers too; the showers most frequent over western areas. Indeed, a more organised band of showers is likely for a time over parts of Wales and western England in the afternoon. Temperatures will be down on recent days with highs ranging from 15 to 19 Celsius over Scotland and Northern Ireland to 20 to 25 Celsius over central, southern and eastern England.

On Thursday, many central, northern and western parts of the UK will have spells of sunshine but with showers in places; showers most frequent over Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Cloudier over south-east England and East Anglia with a risk of rain. Temperatures typically reaching the high teens to low 20s Celsius. A breezy and cool day for many on Friday with showers spreading from west to east across the country but some sunshine at times as well. This weekend, a low pressure area approaching from the north-east Atlantic is likely to bring increasingly wet and breezy conditions to western and northern parts of the UK. Often dry and quite warm for the south-eastern quarter of the UK this weekend but an increasing risk of rain here, too, by the end of the weekend.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August

Drier and warmer conditions gradually returning

The first couple of days of next week are likely to be rather cool, breezy and showery over large parts of the UK. Indeed, some of the showers could be quite heavy for a time.
Temperatures will most likely be not far from the seasonal average but the wind and showers are likely to make it feel distinctly cool. Through the middle to latter part of next week, many central and southern areas of the UK are likely to see a change in the weather as a high pressure ridge moves closer from the southwest.

Temperatures are likely to rise a little above the seasonal average here with winds falling lighter, making it feel much warmer. It should become somewhat drier too. However, northern parts of the UK are likely to stay less warm with temperatures remaining nearer to the seasonal average as well as experiencing breezier conditions at times. Western Scotland together with Northern Ireland could remain quite wet through much of the week. However, this extent of any rain by the end of the week is rather uncertain. Indeed, there appear to be chances of high pressure extending much further north than we currently expect, which would also extend dry and warm conditions into the north if this happens.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 2 September

Lengthy dry and warm spells for most

The closing weeks of summer are likely to bring some further lengthy episodes of dry and rather warm weather to the UK. Indeed, overall, temperatures are expected to be a little above the seasonal average with rainfall amounts somewhat below what we would normally expect in late summer. However, there most likely will be occasional less warm and showery days as fronts occasionally move in from the Atlantic. Dry and warm days are likely to outweigh the number of any cooler, wetter days. There is a chance of one or two spells of stronger heat although these would appear most likely for the south-eastern quarter of England where a few days of 30+ Celsius are easily possible. Equally, there is the chance of a run of a few wetter and cooler days, although these are perhaps more likely towards the turn of the month. However, the most likely scenario is for any wet and cool periods of weather to be rather short-lived.

Next Update

Next week we will take a look at what could be in store for early September. Will this summer's mostly dry and warm weather persist?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

Temperatures will be down on recent days with highs ranging from 15 to 19 Celsius over Scotland and Northern Ireland to 20 to 25 Celsius over central, southern and eastern England.

I guess Wales and Northern England no longer exist. 

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Temperatures will be down on recent days with highs ranging from 20 to 25 Celsius over central, southern and eastern England.

Perfect weather in this case then - How our summers should be! Not too hot and not cold, neither will it turn wetter! - who needs weeks and months of 30 to 35c, with nighttime lows of uncomfortable 17 to 21c!? This is ideal. With a bit of luck - night time temps will be cooler between 10 and 15c instead of 15 and 20c like over the past month or throughout most of the summer rather. 

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Latest from Met Office . More changeable for next 10 days

 https://youtu.be/GDY6S47tyd4

Something I didn't know. You can watch forecasts from the met office via the likes of Alex Deakin on Channel 5.

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BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 8 August—Sunday 12 August

Fresher than recently with some showers for most

The remainder of this week will be fresher than recently, particularly over central and southeastern England which experienced a hot start to the week. On Wednesday, much of the UK will have spells of sunshine but there will be scattered showers too; the showers most frequent over western areas. Indeed, a more organised band of showers is likely for a time over parts of Wales and western England in the afternoon. Temperatures will be down on recent days with highs ranging from 15 to 19 Celsius over Scotland and Northern Ireland to 20 to 25 Celsius over central, southern and eastern England.

On Thursday, many central, northern and western parts of the UK will have spells of sunshine but with showers in places; showers most frequent over Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Cloudier over south-east England and East Anglia with a risk of rain. Temperatures typically reaching the high teens to low 20s Celsius. A breezy and cool day for many on Friday with showers spreading from west to east across the country but some sunshine at times as well. This weekend, a low pressure area approaching from the north-east Atlantic is likely to bring increasingly wet and breezy conditions to western and northern parts of the UK. Often dry and quite warm for the south-eastern quarter of the UK this weekend but an increasing risk of rain here, too, by the end of the weekend.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August

Drier and warmer conditions gradually returning

The first couple of days of next week are likely to be rather cool, breezy and showery over large parts of the UK. Indeed, some of the showers could be quite heavy for a time.
Temperatures will most likely be not far from the seasonal average but the wind and showers are likely to make it feel distinctly cool. Through the middle to latter part of next week, many central and southern areas of the UK are likely to see a change in the weather as a high pressure ridge moves closer from the southwest.

Temperatures are likely to rise a little above the seasonal average here with winds falling lighter, making it feel much warmer. It should become somewhat drier too. However, northern parts of the UK are likely to stay less warm with temperatures remaining nearer to the seasonal average as well as experiencing breezier conditions at times. Western Scotland together with Northern Ireland could remain quite wet through much of the week. However, this extent of any rain by the end of the week is rather uncertain. Indeed, there appear to be chances of high pressure extending much further north than we currently expect, which would also extend dry and warm conditions into the north if this happens.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 2 September

Lengthy dry and warm spells for most

The closing weeks of summer are likely to bring some further lengthy episodes of dry and rather warm weather to the UK. Indeed, overall, temperatures are expected to be a little above the seasonal average with rainfall amounts somewhat below what we would normally expect in late summer. However, there most likely will be occasional less warm and showery days as fronts occasionally move in from the Atlantic. Dry and warm days are likely to outweigh the number of any cooler, wetter days. There is a chance of one or two spells of stronger heat although these would appear most likely for the south-eastern quarter of England where a few days of 30+ Celsius are easily possible. Equally, there is the chance of a run of a few wetter and cooler days, although these are perhaps more likely towards the turn of the month. However, the most likely scenario is for any wet and cool periods of weather to be rather short-lived.

Next Update

Next week we will take a look at what could be in store for early September. Will this summer's mostly dry and warm weather persist?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_weather

 

Well no front loaded summer then after all!? 

We have had more typical summer over the past few days but no real appreciable amounts of Rain but din't want to jinx it! Saturday night will soon be here. Good news that it's short lived anyway. Also where are the hurricanes this year? seems so so tranquil the Atlantic ? This time last year we had 2 if not 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic at one time and two were major if I remember!?? This was in the space of a week? Not heard of one so far!?

This is an interesting read here by the standard:

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-weather-lowest-temperatures-since-early-june-as-rain-falls-on-capital-a3907851.html

 

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Met office
UK Outlook for Friday 17 Aug 2018 to Sunday 26 Aug 2018:

Many areas starting dry and fine on Friday, but cloud and patchy rain will move into western parts and slowly spread eastwards through the day. Into the weekend, we are likely to see a band of rain sink southeastwards across many central areas Saturday, with clearer, showery weather following. Into next week, it continues changeable and perhaps windy at times, with bands of rain moving southeast, but also some brighter and drier interludes. The heaviest rain is likely to be in the northwest, with the driest conditions in the southeast. It is likely to become generally drier, brighter and more settled later in the period, especially for southern parts of the UK. Temperatures will be around average in the northwest, but warm or very warm at times in the southeast.

UK Outlook for Monday 27 Aug 2018 to Monday 10 Sep 2018:

High pressure is likely to be dominating at the start of this period, with the west and southwest perhaps seeing the driest and brightest weather. Further outbreaks of rain and strong winds may move across the north, and perhaps sink southeastwards at times. Into September, confidence decreases. However, temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for many. The south and east will have the warmest conditions, and it will probably be drier than average here too.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Next few years 'may be exceptionally warm'

The next few years could be "anomalously warm", according to a new study.

Researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how average global surface air temperatures will vary over the next few years.

The results suggest that the period from 2018 to 2022 could see an increased likelihood of extreme temperatures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45185721

Next few years 'may be exceptionally warm'

The next few years could be "anomalously warm", according to a new study.

Researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how average global surface air temperatures will vary over the next few years.

The results suggest that the period from 2018 to 2022 could see an increased likelihood of extreme temperatures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45185721

😂😂😂

A load of nonsense really as we all know how difficult seasonal forecasts are let alone jumping a few years in advance. On the plus side maybe my MetO approved Mediterranean plants will flourish. 😁

Next few years 'may be exceptionally warm'

The next few years could be "anomalously warm", according to a new study.

Researchers have developed a mathematical model to predict how average global surface air temperatures will vary over the next few years.

The results suggest that the period from 2018 to 2022 could see an increased likelihood of extreme temperatures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45185721

Figure 1 in the reference shows the "Residual" global mean temperature change after subtracting forcings due to AGW and Volcanoes.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8

Without trying to follow the pages of variance analysis and stats that followed on, I could see quite clearly that these "Residual" effects showed peaks in 1880, 1940 and 2000 (or thereabouts) and troughs in 1910 and 1970. This is uncannily consistent with the 60 year AMO Natural cycle which peaked in 1945 and 2005 with a corresponding trough in 1975. Furthermore the amplitude of the trough-to-peak in their analysis was around 0.3C which is the same as the measured AMO amplitude.

So I conclude they have re-discovered the same thing !

The news is though that the heating effect of this natural 60 year oscillation is declining since 2005 and reaches a trough around 2035 so this is the exact opposite of their conclusions in that respect

Of course we may get another super EL Nino which will introduce a short (2 year or so) rapid warming which will make them right as this would swamp the 60 year natural cycle

 

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Here is a BBC article which Jerry from the south side of Edinburgh might be interested in since his user name on this forum appears in that article's title. This should therefore provide a good clue as to how he came to choosing that as his user name.

 

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Met Office have updated Long range model probability maps:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Looks like no clear signal re precipitation as we go into start of winter but of course the bias has always been for a milder than average winter and this year is no exception. Always, always forecast milder than average!! But again only 50 - 60% chance of it being milder than average but a 40 to 50% chance of it being near normal.

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Wednesday 15 August—Sunday 19 August

Breezy, and often wet in the north

After a rather humid, breezy day in the south, with cloud and patchy rain spilling into western and northern Britain, on Wednesday night northern areas can expect to gradually become clearer and drier. A band of fragmented rain will continue to push south-east into central and southern England, however.

By Thursday morning, central and south-eastern England will have a wet start, with persistent rain expected for a time, before the rain eases and the responsible front slowly edges into the North Sea. Northern and western Britain will have a drier and brighter day, with sunny spells but also some heavy, thundery showers moving in from the west.

Friday will see another area of cloud and patchy rain moving into north-west Britain, bringing fresh winds too. Much of England and Wales will remain dry with good spells of sunshine and some fair-weather cloud, although the sunshine may be hazy in the west.

By the weekend, a weak front is expected to straddle central Britain and Ireland, giving a lot of cloud and a few spots of rain on Saturday. Warm to the south of the front, some light showers are likely to affect western Scotland.

More widespread rain looks like moving across central or northern Britain on Saturday night and early on Sunday, but the far north of Scotland and southern England should remain dry. Warm and humid in the south on Sunday, with temperatures reaching the mid-20s Celsius in London, while the rain only slowly eases in the north.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 26 August

Higher pressure in the south

Monday and Tuesday next week will see lighter winds than preceding days, because pressure will rise to the south of the UK. However, a weak front may still bring some patchy rain to central, northern and western parts of the country, while south-eastern England sees the driest and warmest weather.

Northern Britain will see temperatures around, or slightly below normal, with a risk of a few showers developing. By the middle and latter half of the week, high pressure will attempt to ridge across the UK from the south-west.

Although there is some uncertainty regarding how widespread the high pressure will be, it looks like southern Britain will remain closest to the centre of the high, meaning a lot of dry and settled weather is expected here.

Temperatures may rise slightly above average here, with light winds and sunny periods becoming more widespread. For northern areas, particularly Scotland, frontal systems are likely to bring cloudier and damp conditions, with patchy rain at times and somewhat breezier conditions.

The cloud, rain and general westerly airflow from the Atlantic will keep temperatures below average here, although there is a chance that these breezier and cooler westerly air flows may develop further south across England and Wales for one or two days, as weakening fronts encroach south-eastwards.

Monday 27 August—Sunday 9 September

Becoming settled in September

A weak area of high pressure is likely to linger across the UK by the start of the following week, continuing warm and generally dry conditions for southern and central areas. Winds will mainly be light too, and there is a chance that the warmth could become more extensive across the UK for a couple of days during the beginning of the week, as there are signs that the high could become established right across the UK for a time.

During the second half of the week, areas of low pressure will become favoured to the north of Scotland once again, although it is uncertain how quickly this transition will occur. It is likely to become cooler for all, with temperatures falling below-normal across northern Britain.

Fronts will be encouraged to move across much of the country from the north-west, giving a wetter and windier end to the week for all areas, but especially in the north. By early September, a return to high pressure to the west of the UK is favoured, although areas of low pressure could linger for a time early on.

Therefore, the coolest, wettest and breeziest weather looks likely during the first few days of the month, with low pressure systems to the north of Scotland responsible. Then, building high pressure from the south-west is expected to bring a return to more widespread drier and settled conditions.

Next Update

Will we see some late Summer weather in September?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 26 Aug 2018 to Tuesday 4 Sep 2018:

After a cold and dry start on Sunday, cloud and rain is likely to spread east into western areas later in the day. For Bank Holiday Monday, the rain is likely to gradually continue south and east, with drier and brighter conditions following. Temperatures should be around the seasonal average. The middle part of the week is likely to see a north-south split in the weather. Northern areas will generally be more changeable with some rain or showers at times, but it is likely to become more settled in the south with warmer temperatures. Drier and warmer weather may become more widely established into early September, as high pressure starts to build in from the south.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Sep 2018 to Wednesday 19 Sep 2018:

Through the beginning and middle part of September, there is an increasing chance that much of the UK will see a good deal of dry, warm and settled weather. Northern and western areas could occasionally have wet and windy spells towards the middle part of the month, but these should be short-lived. Temperatures are likely to be generally warm across the UK, with a chance of very warm conditions developing in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast