The Weather Outlook

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Gavin D
04 January 2019 09:43:06

Storm ”Sophia” Causes Severe Disruptions Across Greece

"The weather system “Sophia” made itself felt throughout Greece on Thursday as several areas experienced heavy snowfall, with disruptions being reported across the country throughout the day. So far, the wintry weather has affected travel to many areas in northern Greece, including the “Seli” ski area in Imathia, which had to shut down due to the heavy snowfall and extreme cold.

Seli Ski Center president Kostas Tzelepis said that the decision “will avert disaster. We don’t want to expose people to danger.” There is an intense snowstorm in the area, he said, and temperatures has dropped to below -7 degrees Celsius (19 Fahrenheit), making travel by road extremely dangerous"

https://greece.greekreporter.com/2019/01/03/storm-sophia-causes-severe-disruptions-across-greece/

Frostbite80
04 January 2019 10:08:23
I am expecting the Meto 15-30 day forecast to change for the better over the next couple of days as they are now giving an 80% chance of the weather meeting the cold alert criteria within that timeframe and that is high odds so far out.
Gavin D
04 January 2019 11:43:28

I am expecting the Meto 15-30 day forecast to change for the better over the next couple of days as they are now giving an 80% chance of the weather meeting the cold alert criteria within that timeframe and that is high odds so far out.

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

 

Not quite

They have a 60% chance for 5 regions out of 9 in England and it ends with the following 'Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend'

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Brian Gaze
04 January 2019 11:51:04

Not quite

They have a 60% chance for 5 regions out of 9 in England and it ends with the following 'Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend'

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Sorry if I am being ignorant, but are you seriously saying the Met Office have cold weather warnings out for the current chill?


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
04 January 2019 12:26:52

 

Sorry if I am being ignorant, but are you seriously saying the Met Office have cold weather warnings out for the current chill?

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Correct 5 out of 9 regions in England have a level 2 cold weather alert in place

Frostbite80
04 January 2019 12:27:35

 

 

Not quite

They have a 60% chance for 5 regions out of 9 in England and it ends with the following 'Milder conditions developing across England over the weekend'

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Hi Gav I’m not talking about the current alert I’m talking about a document I get as a 1st responder that isn’t published in the public domain.

Gavin D
04 January 2019 12:28:31
Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Friday 18 Jan 2019:

Many western and northwestern areas will be dry on Wednesday with long sunny spells after a cold and frosty start. A few showers towards the east, which could be wintry across eastern Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the east and central areas, with a risk of gales towards the coast, adding to the cold feel. Towards the end of next week, it looks like it will stay predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Thereafter, there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Gavin D
04 January 2019 12:29:33

Hi Gav I’m not talking about the current alert I’m talking about a document I get as a 1st responder that isn’t published in the public domain.

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

Ahh. No worries.

Sounds similar to the contingency planners thing they have

Frostbite80
04 January 2019 12:40:08

 

Ahh. No worries.

Sounds similar to the contingency planners thing they have

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

It is a little similar but what struck me is the last update was for a 20% chance so for it to increase to 80% shows some decent confidence.

Brian Gaze
04 January 2019 13:00:02

 

 

Correct 5 out of 9 regions in England have a level 2 cold weather alert in place

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Wow.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

wallaw
04 January 2019 13:22:11

 

Wow.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Wow indeed, could you imagine Canada or Finland issuing weather warnings for 'a slight frost' or a 'bit of a chill'? They would need to issue a blanket warning for 6 months of the year. Madness


Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

doctormog
04 January 2019 13:31:53
I think they are public health alerts due to increased risk for vulnerable groups rather than warnings for the general public who would think “it’s a bit chilly today”?
wallaw
04 January 2019 13:45:01

I think they are public health alerts due to increased risk for vulnerable groups rather than warnings for the general public who would think “it’s a bit chilly today”?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Perhaps Doc, I still find it odd that there are warnings in place for frost, even in today's world


Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

tallyho_83
04 January 2019 14:01:53

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Friday 18 Jan 2019:

Many western and northwestern areas will be dry on Wednesday with long sunny spells after a cold and frosty start. A few showers towards the east, which could be wintry across eastern Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the east and central areas, with a risk of gales towards the coast, adding to the cold feel. Towards the end of next week, it looks like it will stay predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Thereafter, there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Not much talk about this northerly potential then:


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

nsrobins
04 January 2019 14:10:12

 

Not much talk about this northerly potential then:

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Apart from ‘Thereafter (after 12th Jan) there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.’

If I were to draw a chart to roughly illustrate what set up might deliver the above I’d draw the one you posted - ish.

And more importantly that chart is from today’s 06Z run - and for some ridiculous hour in the future. Why would a forecast issued afterwards even mention it?

 


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

nsrobins
04 January 2019 14:12:31

Why can’t I delete a post? 


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Rob K
04 January 2019 14:26:34

 

Wow indeed, could you imagine Canada or Finland issuing weather warnings for 'a slight frost' or a 'bit of a chill'? They would need to issue a blanket warning for 6 months of the year. Madness

Originally Posted by: wallaw 

How meany times do we have to go through this? They are not "weather warnings" and they are not aimed at the public. They are background advice for contingency planning, eg council supplies, hospital logistics and so on and so on. Don't worry, the nanny state isn;t telling you not to go out in the cold. 

 

Brian, in answer to your question "Sorry if I am being ignorant, but are you seriously saying the Met Office have cold weather warnings out for the current chill?" the answer is No, they don't.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
04 January 2019 14:31:26

 

Perhaps Doc, I still find it odd that there are warnings in place for frost, even in today's world

Originally Posted by: wallaw 

There aren't. The only weather warnings out are for wind next week. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-07

 

The cold weather alerts are NOT weather warnings and are NOT for the general public, they are just guidance for public services as to the extent of any cold weather impacts that are likely.

 

Yellow — Alert and readiness

Triggered by the Met Office as soon as the risk is 60% or above for any of the thresholds to be breached. This is an important stage for social and healthcare services who will be working to ensure readiness and swift action to reduce harm from a potential period of cold weather.

 

I guarantee that Canada, Finland and all the other places have similar systems in place, there is nothing unique or namby-pamby about it, it's just called logistics. 

 

 

I guarantee that the same people who whinge about this system would be first to moan about Britain being useless and unprepared for cold weather if social services, gritting depots and so on were given no warning and failed to be ready when cold weather arrived. Some people just love to moan. 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
04 January 2019 14:37:26
It does make you wonder though if the Met Office shouldn't take the cold weather alerts off their site altogether, as they only seem to confuse people, even people who take an active interest in the weather and forecasting. So god knows what Joe Public make of them.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

tallyho_83
04 January 2019 14:43:30

 

Apart from ‘Thereafter (after 12th Jan) there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.’

If I were to draw a chart to roughly illustrate what set up might deliver the above I’d draw the one you posted - ish.

And more importantly that chart is from today’s 06Z run - and for some ridiculous hour in the future. Why would a forecast issued afterwards even mention it?

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

But there has always been a chance of colder weather mid Jan and the Met Office mentioned this and has been for days if not at least a week but they never mention anything to do with a northerly wind like what we can see on the GFS charts for 14,15th and 16th?


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

wallaw
04 January 2019 14:57:22

It does make you wonder though if the Met Office shouldn't take the cold weather alerts off their site altogether, as they only seem to confuse people, even people who take an active interest in the weather and forecasting. So god knows what Joe Public make of them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Whilst i do take your point Rob and stand corrected, whether they are warnings or alerts, whether they are for Joe Public or for contingency planning and agencies, my issue is with the parameters for the warnings We are talking about, and yes it could well change, but a 36 hour snap of temps at or above freezing. That was my issue.

Also, these alerts have been around a long time now and local authorities have still failed to make adequate provision with them in place.

Anyway, me? Moan? You have me confused


Ian

Stockton-on-Tees

Robertski
04 January 2019 15:55:46

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2019 to Friday 18 Jan 2019:

Many western and northwestern areas will be dry on Wednesday with long sunny spells after a cold and frosty start. A few showers towards the east, which could be wintry across eastern Scotland and northeast England. Windy in the east and central areas, with a risk of gales towards the coast, adding to the cold feel. Towards the end of next week, it looks like it will stay predominately settled, with light winds and the likelihood of overnight frost and fog. Thereafter, there could be a transition to more changeable conditions. The most settled weather is likely to last for longest across the south. Meanwhile, northwestern parts are more likely to see cloudier skies with outbreaks of rain at times along with stronger winds and the risk of some snow.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

The same thing being said for weeks now, only the cold weather keeps getting pushed back....

Rob K
04 January 2019 16:25:40

 

The same thing being said for weeks now, only the cold weather keeps getting pushed back....

Originally Posted by: Robertski 

Indeed, compare the wording of this, from Dec 13:

 

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.

 

to this from today!

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

 

Basically the same wording but pushed back three weeks!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
04 January 2019 16:54:50

 

Indeed, compare the wording of this, from Dec 13:

 

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.

 

to this from today!

 

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2019 to Saturday 2 Feb 2019:

Most of the UK is likely to start this period with predominantly wet and windy weather, and a chance of heavy rain and gales at times, especially in the north. Hill snow is also possible, as well as snow to lower levels at times in the north. In the south though, there could be some drier and brighter periods too. Temperatures will vary between mild and rather cold at times, with overnight frosts during settled spells. Towards the end of January onwards, there is an increased likelihood of a change to much colder weather generally, bringing an enhanced risk of frost, fog and snow. This cold spell is by no means certain though, and in any case, some milder, wet and windy interludes are likely during this period.

 

Basically the same wording but pushed back three weeks!

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

To be honest the outlook ain't that far off the 13th December effort.

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
tallyho_83
04 January 2019 17:52:19
Thought i'd share gavsweathervids as it's JMA Friday and this is in agreement with the CFSV2:

Worth a watch 🙂


Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)


Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

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