It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.

Precisely.

The possibility of wet, windy and mild weather in January would have been there yesterday just the same as it is today. January is still just over a fortnight away and trying to forecast the weather in the country for a week or less ahead is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone for further ahead.

Until the SSW event has happened and we can see the effects (if any) that it had on the model output that we can see and the extra output that the pros have, nothing can be ruled in or out.

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So why are the GFS models going for unseasonably mild weather into New Year? - sooner or later the FI in these runs esp the OPERATIONAL and Control will have to go cold and blocked soon!?

Because like earlier this year the models will struggle with developments until much closer to the time. Remember the met were bullish well before the ssw in feb while the models were all over the place, patience, patience 

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Run-up to Christmas

Unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Fairly mild
A little cooler by Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46599825 

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Just potency and longevity appears to be where any uncertainty lies.

To me that sounds like a bullish forecast given the range we're talking about. I asked about it on Twitter:

All weather model output is considered when writing the 30day forecasts. However the forecast is worded to emphasise the uncertainties at that stage...no reference to 'will' but 'likely'. Our deputy chief writes this & has access to more info than me so cannot comment further 👍

— marco petagna (@Petagna) December 18, 2018

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'Increasing Likelihood'....That for the MetO..is a very big confident statement...let's see how this one plays

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Wow, great update. Ssw clearly the driver 

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Run-up to Christmas

Unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Fairly mild

Christmas week

Westerly winds
Wetter and windier further north
More settled further south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46613769 

Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Extended period was wrong correct version below

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Jan 2019 to Wednesday 16 Jan 2019:

Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds. Should this occur, then wintry conditions are possible in eastern, southern and central areas with western parts of the UK staying relatively drier. Though should any Atlantic frontal systems try to make inroads western areas could also see some snow. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in early January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

I missed the south west country weather forecast this evening apart from Fergies last three words, which were "watch this space" Did anyone see the rest? would love to know what he was referring too.

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Run-up to Christmas

Unsettled
Wet and windy at times
Fairly mild

Christmas week

Westerly winds
Wetter and windier further north
More settled further south

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46613769

I sometimes wonder where they are getting their data - unless this was written three days ago.

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Because like earlier this year the models will struggle with developments until much closer to the time. Remember the met were bullish well before the ssw in feb while the models were all over the place, patience, patience 

Sure because the models are showing nothing in response to this SSW yet - if anything they are trending milder.

So from what you're saying - we need to wait until the SSW takes place between around 22nd to 25th Dec until we see the GFS/ and other models starting to pick up on this!?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period. However, central and western areas are more likely to see cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain on Christmas Eve, whilst it will most likely be drier and brighter elsewhere. Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather. Thereafter, as we continue towards the end of the year, southern parts will probably see a good deal of dry weather, although with this settled weather comes an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Northern parts, meanwhile, look set to see more changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period. However, central and western areas are more likely to see cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain on Christmas Eve, whilst it will most likely be drier and brighter elsewhere. Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather. Thereafter, as we continue towards the end of the year, southern parts will probably see a good deal of dry weather, although with this settled weather comes an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Northern parts, meanwhile, look set to see more changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

 

Downgrade begins already...?

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed outlook to start 2019

Yes big downgrade inevitable when looking at the output. It would suggest no quick response to the SSW.  Will there be one at all? 

 

Judging by the BBC update they think we have to wait til late January 

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IMO, particular attention should be paid to the words used at the start of the second sentence in the January 3-17 part of the MetO forecast- "low confidence in the forecast thereafter". That only goes to highlight the point I made in the model thread this morning that until the forecast SSW has actually taken place and we then get a better idea as to what effect, if any, it will have, then none of us can be sure.

I think this talk of downgrades is a little premature at the moment, as it would appear that nothing can be rules in or out from early January onwards.

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Nice update just now on BBC news Matt Taylor talking about the forthcoming SSW.  Basically saying potential for significant cold and snow 2nd half of winter. No guarantees but he seemed as confident as you can be at such a range.

 

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IMO, particular attention should be paid to the words used at the start of the second sentence in the January 3-17 part of the MetO forecast- "low confidence in the forecast thereafter". That only goes to highlight the point I made in the model thread this morning that until the forecast SSW has actually taken place and we then get a better idea as to what effect, if any, it will have, then none of us can be sure.

I think this talk of downgrades is a little premature at the moment, as it would appear that nothing can be rules in or out from early January onwards.

Hi David,

What struck me were the words at the start of the forecast for next week: "There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period"

IF they're not even confident about developments in the atmosphere less than a week from now anything beyond that must be even more suspect than usual. That first paragraph is contains 'most likely', 'probably' and 'increased risk'  So, five sentences and four of them contain caveats.  

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