Sure because the models are showing nothing in response to this SSW yet - if anything they are trending milder.

So from what you're saying - we need to wait until the SSW takes place between around 22nd to 25th Dec until we see the GFS/ and other models starting to pick up on this!?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 2 Jan 2019:

There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period. However, central and western areas are more likely to see cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain on Christmas Eve, whilst it will most likely be drier and brighter elsewhere. Meanwhile, many will most likely see a mild day on Christmas Day itself, with increasing amounts of dry weather. Thereafter, as we continue towards the end of the year, southern parts will probably see a good deal of dry weather, although with this settled weather comes an increased risk of overnight fog and frost. Northern parts, meanwhile, look set to see more changeable weather, with showers or longer spells of rain at times.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A mixed outlook to start 2019

Wednesday 19 December—Sunday 23 December

Wet and breezy at times but mild.

Through the remainder of this week, it will be wet and breezy at times but generally mild, particularly in the south. On Wednesday and Thursday, most areas will have bright or sunny intervals but with a brisk southwesterly wind bringing showers for some. The showers will be most frequent in the west of the UK where a few of the showers could be heavy and thundery. Southeastern fringes of the UK, particularly Kent and Sussex, will also have some heavy showers.

Highs will range from around 6 or 7 Celsius over Scotland to nearer 10 or 11C over southern Britain. On Friday, outbreaks of rain are expected to sweep northeastwards across the country, perhaps giving way to brighter but windy weather for the southern half of the UK. This weekend is likely to see some showers or longer spells of rain. Sunday currently looks like the wetter day of the weekend with more widespread rain.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Unsettled in Scotland. Quiet further south.

Through next week, including the Christmas period, westerly winds are likely to bring wet and breezy conditions at times to northern areas of the UK, particularly western Scotland. Further south, it is likely to be often drier and less breezy, thanks to an area of high pressure not far away to the southwest of the country. However, there could be a lot of cloud at times, particularly over the western half of the country.

Temperatures next week are likely to be variable, but on average it should be a little milder than expected for December for many. Occasional night frosts are possible, particularly in the south and southwest under lighter winds there. Chances of a white Christmas appear to be rather low. We're more likely to see a wet Christmas in some areas, particularly in the north where there will be some rain at times.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 13 January

Dry and calm for a time, then turning wetter.

The start of 2019 looks likely to bring a relatively dry and calm spell of weather to England, Wales and Northern Ireland. However, with lighter winds, there will be an increased chance of some overnight frost and fog. In Scotland, breezier conditions are more likely to prevail with temperatures a little above the seasonal average and rain at times.

For the second week of January, there are indications that areas of low pressure may move in from the Atlantic, bringing a change to breezier and wetter conditions across large parts of the UK. Temperatures are favoured to fall, bringing a risk of some snow mixed in with the rain at times, particularly over northern parts of the UK. However, there is a chance that much milder conditions prevail. Furthermore, any significant or prolonged cold weather should hold-off until at least the second half of January.

Next Update

More changeable weather on the way for January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Yes big downgrade inevitable when looking at the output. It would suggest no quick response to the SSW.  Will there be one at all? 

 

Judging by the BBC update they think we have to wait til late January 

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IMO, particular attention should be paid to the words used at the start of the second sentence in the January 3-17 part of the MetO forecast- "low confidence in the forecast thereafter". That only goes to highlight the point I made in the model thread this morning that until the forecast SSW has actually taken place and we then get a better idea as to what effect, if any, it will have, then none of us can be sure.

I think this talk of downgrades is a little premature at the moment, as it would appear that nothing can be rules in or out from early January onwards.

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Nice update just now on BBC news Matt Taylor talking about the forthcoming SSW.  Basically saying potential for significant cold and snow 2nd half of winter. No guarantees but he seemed as confident as you can be at such a range.

 

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Hi David,

What struck me were the words at the start of the forecast for next week: "There is low confidence in the forecast as we head into the Christmas period"

IF they're not even confident about developments in the atmosphere less than a week from now anything beyond that must be even more suspect than usual. That first paragraph is contains 'most likely', 'probably' and 'increased risk'  So, five sentences and four of them contain caveats.  

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Met office CPF 

December update

January to March 

Temperature summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures. The likelihood of impacts from cold weather is greater than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for January-February-March will fall into the coldest of our five categories is between 30% and 35%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is between 10% and 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For January and January-February-March as a whole, below-average precipitation is more probable than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for January-February-March will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).​​​​​​​

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-jfm-v1.pdf

https://www.facebook.com/287501884208/posts/10156315705299209/

 

Hopefully the MO 10 day forecast from Alex Deakin will work.

Mentions the SSW.

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Hi Peter

I agree totally with your comments above. In many ways, I think we are in almost the same kind of situation now that we were in back in early-mid February this year. Back then, a lot of us were guessing as to what exactly what the SSW that took place that month would mean for our prospects as we headed towards the end of last winter. Those of us who like cold and snow were not disappointed!

At the moment, we just don't really know what the upcoming SSW will deliver fur us this time, assuming it leads to any major changes from the current pattern. "Wait and see" is probably the best approach to take at the moment, IMO.

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A great forecast, good to have the met and the beeb singing from the same Christmas hymn sheet, very confident about the ssw which is what we want to hear. Now we just have to wait and see what effect it has on the UK.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Thursday 3 Jan 2019:

Christmas Day should be bright in the north and east, though there could be a touch of frost and any morning fog patches may be slow to clear. Further south and west it will be mild and cloudy; the cloud should gradually spread northeastwards. It should be mostly dry with only a little drizzly rain in the west. Boxing Day is also looking largely settled but cloudy for many with rain likely for the far north. It should stay often dry through the end of December and into 2019, especially in the south. Further north it may become more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, which may spread further south at times. Whilst temperatures will be around average, some overnight frosts are possible in any clearer spells.

UK Outlook for Thursday 3 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

The beginning of this period most likely brings further dry weather in the south but showers and longer spells of rain in the north. However, the unsettled weather may extend to all parts for a time in early January. There is low confidence in the forecast thereafter, although we will most probably see a colder and drier period with the potential for easterly winds and a chance of some wintry weather for parts of the UK. We may also see occasional frontal systems try to make inroads, bringing the chance of further wintry weather in the west. However, despite this potential shift to colder weather, wet, windy and mild weather may still be possible at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Oh dear.😕

The only "Oh Dear" is the incessant hanging on every word of, and I will put it in quotes "FORECAST" at 3 weeks range.

Get over it, it might be cold it might be mild.

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So we may as well not post them or look at any of the model output beyond five days then. There’s no getting away from the fact that confidence isn’t as high as it was a few days ago, either GLOSEA has picked up on another signal which wasn’t a player prior or they’re just making it up as they go along. 😉

Or someone else is writing the forecast with a slightly different nuance. We don't know the confidence in the forecast, and I believe (not just with this but things these days) we read way to much into what is written, when standing back and looking at that point in time, it says that cold easterly weather is still possible and more likely than mild.

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I don't see any change which implies that cold weather is any less likely than before?

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