Around 22:40 you'll see..? Definitely looking very interesting!?

The awkward moment BBC Breakfast's Carol finds out she hasn't been invited to the Christmas party 🙈 pic.twitter.com/3e0TxwLobN

— Captain Haggerty (@AngelaHaggerty) December 12, 2018

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

December is expected close out unsettled

Wednesday 12 December—Sunday 16 December

Chilly then wet and windy, perhaps with snow.

Wednesday will be a cool day but most central and eastern areas of the UK will be under the influence of high pressure, so it should be a dry day. The west will be cloudier and there will be some outbreaks of rain for parts of Wales and South West England, perhaps also affecting Northern Ireland and Western Scotland. There will be little change to this pattern to end the working week, although western areas should be drier on Thursday and Friday than on Wednesday. It will be colder in all areas with Thursday night looking cold with the chance of a fairly widespread frost. After a relatively settled week we will see a change with more of an Atlantic influence on our weather by the end of the weekend. The transition from one type of weather to the other does look messy.

Whilst we are confident that an Atlantic low pressure system will push rain across the UK on Friday night and during Saturday, the time of arrival of the rain is proving tricky to pin down.  It does look likely that most parts of the country will see some rain before the end of Saturday. As this rain pushes across the country it will meet cold air and there will be a chance of snow. Again, the details are proving elusive, but it is most likely that high ground in the north of the UK will see snow, whilst lower lying sites in the south will more likely see rain. One other point to note is that Saturday looks to be a very windy day for many areas of the country.  Sunday should be brighter and less windy but with showers and rain in some areas. It will feel milder than previous days.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Unsettled but mild for the time of year.

The run up to Christmas looks likely to be unsettled but relatively mild. The main driver of the weather will be a low pressure system or systems, which are expected to be centred to the north-west of the UK and Ireland throughout the week. We expect showers and bands of rain to push eastwards across the UK with most areas seeing at least some rain, but with the west generally wettest. It may also become windy at times, again with western areas probably most prone to seeing the windiest weather. 

Winds will be broadly from the south-west which means that we will have relatively mild air across the country for much of the week. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for mid-December and there is a reduced risk of overnight frosts. The above normal temperatures also mean that any snow is likely to be limited to the Scottish mountains.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 6 January

Staying mild with some very wet and windy days.

The most case is that we won't see much change in the weather for the Christmas period. Broadly speaking, the weather is most likely to remain milder than normal for the time of year although temperatures should be nearer to normal than in the run up to Christmas. There will be a chance of showers and longer spells of rain and it could be cold enough in the north of the UK for there to be the chance of some snow, but this will mainly be on high ground in Scotland.

A white Christmas looks pretty unlikely for most parts of the UK. Looking to the start of 2019, we still see low pressure close to the UK, so further unsettled weather is likely. However, there are signs that high pressure will start to build across the Scandinavia and the north-east of Europe. If this happens then there will be a chance that we could see some cooler air pushing in from the east, so there is the potential for some colder weather during January. Details of the high pressure development will need to be firmed up before we can say for sure whether we will get any wintry weather to start the new year.

Next Update

Will there be any change in the chance of a white Christmas? And will cold weather look more or less likely in January?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Wednesday 26 Dec 2018:

Through the middle of the month, a mix of blustery showers and longer spells of rain looks likely, with a risk of severe gales. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, although the south and west could become rather mild at times. However, a chance of some colder air in the north could give the risk of some hill snow. Heading into the Christmas week, it will probably stay unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain, but interspersed by some brighter and showery weather. Temperatures on the whole look likely to be a little milder than average. However, there is a small chance of colder temperatures, which could bring snow to hilltops in the north, and perhaps to low levels for a time in the northeast.

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Dec 2018 to Thursday 10 Jan 2019:

The end of 2018 is likely to remain fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a small chance things could turn colder in late December. However, as we head into the New Year, there is an increased chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, but also an increasing chance of some snow showers and nighttime frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 8 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Any more unsettled weather at the start of this period is likely to be quite short-lived. The weather is then expected to turn calmer and more settled, but this will bring increased likelihood of fog, especially later in the month. Temperatures will probably be around average at first, with a few milder days but also some overnight frosts under clearer skies. Things may then start to turn generally colder later in the period.

And how much frost have we seen since 8th and will see? Very little if any!!

Latest update from the Met Office continues to suggest an increased chance of colder weather beyond Christmas.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 18 Dec 2018 to Thursday 27 Dec 2018:

Tuesday will see some unsettled and windy weather with coastal gales, cloud, and outbreaks of rain and drizzle moving eastwards across the UK. The rain and drizzle will be followed by sunny spells and scattered, blustery showers. Showers will fall as snow over northern higher ground. As we head through the remainder of the week and into the Christmas week it will probably stay unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain, these interspersed by some brighter and showery weather. Temperatures on the whole look likely to be a little milder than average. However, in the period after Christmas Day there is an increased likelihood that milder spells will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime could become established across the UK.

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Dec 2018 to Friday 11 Jan 2019:

The most likely scenario for the end of December is for periodically unsettled Atlantic weather to move across the UK from the west. However, there is an increased likelihood that the milder, Atlantic weather will become short-lived and a colder and more showery northerly or northwesterly regime will become established across the UK. Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood of a return to colder than average conditions with an increase in the likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow.

Updated: 02:10 on Thu 13 Dec 2018 GMT

Yep, am liking that update

Interesting update today from the Met Office. Note the final sentence of each section.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Dec 2018 to Friday 28 Dec 2018:
Cloud and rain should clear east early on Wednesday with sunshine and blustery showers following. The showers most frequent in the northwest and west where there is the risk of hail and thunder with some hill snow in the north. Some patchy fog may be slow to clear on Thursday with fewer showers and lighter winds. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around or a little above average. However, there is a small chance of a colder and showery spell developing during Christmas week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:
The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

Updated: 03:25 on Fri 14 Dec 2018 GMT

Level 2 cold weather alert issued for all of England apart from London and the southwest

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 08:59 on Thu 13 Dec 2018

There is a % probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0600 on Friday 14 Dec and 0900 on Monday 17 Dec in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

High confidence for increasingly widespread overnight frosts by the weekend, and less cold conditions spreading east during Saturday. Low confidence at this stage for the extent of any heavy snow and icy conditions on Saturday and at first Sunday across more northern areas.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

We don't bother with those up here. We just do up another button 😂

Someone from Yorkshire cracked a similar joke last winter in response to a cold weather warning, along the lines of "You'll need your winter coat on"

It's not a severe weather warning for the public - just the 'public' version of an alert for the NHS and local authorities that is automatically triggered by temperature and other criteria that are known to impact on bed availability and other service provision.

Level 2 isn't very high. I'm only guessing but any possibility of freezing rain will mean A&E face a spike of elderly people with leg and hip fractures and planning for that helps a lot.

Unsettled

Fairly mild

Colder in time for Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46574706 

N Miller hinting at colder weather for Xmas 

What? it was 5c today in London?...too windy for frosts and ice? been no rain ...so how? As for snow? Not cold enough? Why cold weather alert? Why do we have to be alerted anyone?

Even here in Edinburgh, we haven't had a single official air frost at any of my three local stations during this so called "cold" spell which when you consider that this is supposed to be our "winter" after all, is just really abysmal.

Yesterday afternoon, it had looked as though we might finally get that elusive air frost as the temperatures showed signs of dropping immediately after sunset. Since then though, the temperatures have actually gone up a bit as the night has gone on, to the point where it was now up to around 3°C here at midnight.

Now I know that the warning in question only applies to England, but you have to ask the question of what chance there is of it being really cold down in England when we can't even get a decent cold spell in this part of Scotland which should be colder on average.

I don't know why people bother posting these warnings here. They're not part of the severe weather warning system that applies to the general public and the non-healthcare parts of local authority emergency planning (that I once sat on). Their terminology is tied in with NHS planning documents and is largely meaningless outside that context. Level 2 is essentially just being prepared for colder conditions and the effect they have on NHS admissions and staff resources based on past correlation. It's about as low a warning as one can get this time of year. The triggers are listed on the alert page - they do not require particularly extreme conditions and the probability can be as low as 60%.

I suspect the slight possibility of freezing rain has provided an ice trigger for the alert as this can severely impact A&E.

Dunno about slight - it's in with a big clutch of weather warnings for quite a large area of the country - high impact (obviously) and just short of 'very likely' on the detailed grid. But I see the M4 weathershield is in operation - just ordinary rain down here, though persistent.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-12-15 

Yes, quite heavy rain too. Even if it's shortlived, this could be rather nasty. I've never experienced it to the extent that it brings down power lines but I've seen roads become like skating rinks in a few minutes.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning colder in the new year?

Saturday 15 December—Sunday 23 December

Rather unsettled but relatively mild.

After a relatively settled but cold week, this weekend will see a transition to wetter, windier but milder weather. The change of pattern will be marked by a band of rain pushing eastwards across the country on Saturday. This rain will move into cold air lying across the UK and, as is often the case in this kind of situation, we expect to see a mix of rain, sleet and snow across the country on Saturday. The sleet and snow should be mainly limited to the north of the UK, particularly higher ground although snow could fall to sea level in parts of Scotland and perhaps to low levels across northern England and perhaps even north Wales.What is more unusual is that it is likely that some central and particularly northern parts of the UK will be affected by a short but potentially very dangerous spell of freezing rain. Freezing rain occurs when rain freezes on impact with the ground, and such a process may occur across some parts of the UK on Saturday, bringing treacherous travelling conditions.

However, the bulk of the rest of the UK will only see rain, and this rain could become very heavy in some areas. It will also be a windy day, with gales possible in the afternoon, evening and for a time overnight.Sunday will seem relatively calm compared to Saturday. There will be a brisk westerly wind with sunny spells and showers for most of the country once any lingering rain has cleared. It will feel milder than Saturday. Sunday night will be mainly dry and it will become chilly. Low pressure will remain close to the UK next week, so the weather will remain unsettled with some spells of wet and windy weather expected. Tuesday could be a very wet day for some areas. However, with winds predominantly from the south-west it will be a relatively mild week for the time of year.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Staying unsettled and relatively mild.

Low pressure is expected to remain close to the UK for the rest of December. As a result, it is likely that we won't see too much change in the weather during Christmas week. This means that, over the week as a whole, temperatures will probably be a little above where they would normally be at the end of December. It looks unsettled with showers and longer spells of rain and perhaps some windy weather too.

However, since our last update there has been a slight change to the forecast. We are now seeing indications of a spell of cooler weather at the start of the week, so it could be a little colder than average for a time around Christmas Day. We still aren't seeing any significant indications of widespread cold weather for the UK, so a white Christmas still looks unlikely for most of us. This doesn't rule out snow on high ground in the north of the country though. The rest of the week is likely to see temperatures returning to above normal, so any cool spell of weather looks quite short-lived.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 13 January

Potential for colder weather heading into January.

The very end of 2018 and the start of 2019 could bring a change in the weather. It is looking increasingly likely that the relatively mild and unsettled conditions we expect to take us to the end of this year could be replaced by something colder, less wet and less windy. The change is likely to be driven by changes in the winds in the stratosphere over the North Pole. Without going into too much detail, changes in the circulation pattern over the Arctic can have an influence on the weather at ground level across Europe.

We're currently seeing indications of a more 'blocked' pattern across northern Europe in January, and this would tend to lead to cooler weather for the UK. However, there is some uncertainty over when this change will happen and also to what extent it would bring cooler weather to the country. And to add to the uncertainty there is even a 30-40% chance that we will remain in relatively mild south-westerly winds in January.

Next Update

We should be able to say if a white Christmas looks more likely and give more detail about the potential cold weather in January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Dec 2018 to Saturday 29 Dec 2018:

Thursday should start showery, especially in the north and west, but the showers should die out through the day, and the brisk breeze in the south should ease too. Temperatures will be around normal, so some overnight frosts are likely. Further wet and windy weather is then expected to arrive from the west on Friday. It is then likely to remain mostly unsettled through the rest of the period with spells of rain and strong winds. The heaviest rain will be in the west with eastern parts staying generally drier. With the unsettled weather temperatures are likely to be around average, or a little above in the south. However, there is a small chance of a colder and showery spell developing during Christmas week.

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Dec 2018 to Saturday 12 Jan 2019:

The start of this period is most likely to be unsettled with the continuation of wet and windy weather pushing in from the west. Through the first half of January there is an increasing likelihood for it to turn colder bringing the increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost and fog. Some snow is also likely with temperatures expected to fall below normal. However, there is uncertainty in the timing of this change to turn colder, and it could come before the end of December.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

Friday starts dry for most with patchy frost and fog, but cloud and rain already in the southwest will spread northeastwards through the day. Clearer, windy and showery conditions follow from the southwest later, these lasting into Saturday. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into the Christmas period, with further spells of rain possibly preceded by hill snow, and with strong winds at times. However during the last week of December there is a chance that the weather pattern will become slow-moving, with some more settled drier conditions developing, and with any rain increasingly confined to the north and west. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around average, but turning colder should more settled conditions develop.

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Dec 2018 to Monday 14 Jan 2019:

Going into the New Year there is an increasing likelihood of the weather pattern becoming slow-moving or even "blocked", with Atlantic frontal systems held at bay by slow-moving areas of high pressure. This may result in more generally settled and cold weather conditions becoming established. This brings and increased risk of winter hazards, especially frost, and fog or freezing fog which may be slow to clear. When any frontal systems do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow. Temperatures are likely to be below normal, and often cold.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Good update