Enjoyed watching Tom Schaf's weather for the week ahead on the BBC.

He was forecasting so well until the very last sentence at the end "Things may settle down...Just for a short while!"

Anyone else catch this?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 6 Dec 2018 to Saturday 15 Dec 2018:

Thursday should get off to a clear start with widespread frost. It is then expected to turn cloudy, wet and windy from the west later with some snow likely over northern mountains. The rain should clear through Friday with blustery showers following and winds staying strong. It will become milder but may not feel it in the wind and rain. The weekend is then likely to be unsettled with some gales. The heaviest rain should be across western and southwestern upslopes and the heaviest showers in the north and west. Things should start to turn drier and colder during the following week. There will likely be bands of rain with hill snow in the north, these interspersed with drier and clearer, but at times showery conditions.

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

The second half of that forecast shows how the models must be all over the place at the moment! I think every base is covered just in case.
Tough work forecasting at the moment- flip flopping around.
Martin

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Would they not be better off going "we dunno!?". It would be interesting to take their lrf for the first of each month and see how it actually panned out...

PS "This will bring heavy rain and gales or severe gales, with a chance that it may even turn stormy at times"... isn't heavy rain with severe gales pretty much the definition of stormy anyways?

Would they not be better off going "we dunno!?". It would be interesting to take their lrf for the first of each month and see how it actually panned out...

PS "This will bring heavy rain and gales or severe gales, with a chance that it may even turn stormy at times"... isn't heavy rain with severe gales pretty much the definition of stormy anyways?

I think the MetO's description is fair, given that classification of wind divides into Gales, Strong (Severe) Gales, and Storm force.

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Yes, as far as I know the Met Office will only use the word stormy in association with storm force winds rather than named storms.

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Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 

 

I think the MetO's description is fair, given that classification of wind divides into Gales, Strong (Severe) Gales, and Storm force.

 

That sounds Fair to Breezy enough

Yes, as far as I know the Met Office will only use the word stormy in association with storm force winds rather than named storms.

The well-used phrase springs to mind - ‘an I’ll wind is oft given a stupid name for no reason’ 😎

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The well-used phrase springs to mind - ‘an I’ll wind is oft given a stupid name for no reason’ 😎

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Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Friday is set to be wet and very windy in the north with severe gales on coasts and hills. The rest of the UK is likely to have a windy day too, though with less disruptive winds and lower rainfall totals. The weekend is likely to be unsettled too, alternating between sunshine and showers. By the end of the weekend, thicker cloud and rain are likely to move from west to east. The heaviest rain may well be across the north and west. The weather will tend to turn drier and colder during the following week with lighter winds. Lower temperatures and longer dry spells will mean that night frost and fog become more likely.

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Friday is set to be wet and very windy in the north with severe gales on coasts and hills. The rest of the UK is likely to have a windy day too, though with less disruptive winds and lower rainfall totals. The weekend is likely to be unsettled too, alternating between sunshine and showers. By the end of the weekend, thicker cloud and rain are likely to move from west to east. The heaviest rain may well be across the north and west. The weather will tend to turn drier and colder during the following week with lighter winds. Lower temperatures and longer dry spells will mean that night frost and fog become more likely.

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A big contradiction come on ahaha! are they that clueless? There are two extremes there!? Very stormy, windy and milder is the exact opposite of drier and colder. ..!?

So in other words either cold and dry or stormy and milder?If so then at least it won't be a boring weather wise - i.e 12 or +13c by day and night with overcast cloudy skies, dull days with drizzle and/or light rain etc, 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2018 to Sunday 16 Dec 2018:

Friday is set to be wet and very windy in the north with severe gales on coasts and hills. The rest of the UK is likely to have a windy day too, though with less disruptive winds and lower rainfall totals. The weekend is likely to be unsettled too, alternating between sunshine and showers. By the end of the weekend, thicker cloud and rain are likely to move from west to east. The heaviest rain may well be across the north and west. The weather will tend to turn drier and colder during the following week with lighter winds. Lower temperatures and longer dry spells will mean that night frost and fog become more likely.

UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Dec 2018 to Sunday 30 Dec 2018:

As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather. However, occasional bursts of unsettled and milder weather are likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells as well.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Likely lads doing the weekend shift?

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It seems quite clear that the most probable outcome in that time period is an increase in the colder more settled spells interspersed with briefer (much) more unsettled spells? Or a more I reading that wrong?

It’s not contradictory and just states that’s the prevalence of one type of weather will increase yet there will still be briefer bouts of a very different type.

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">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

A big contradiction come on ahaha! are they that clueless? There are two extremes there!? Very story windy and milder is the exact opposite of drier and colder. ..!?

So in other words either cold and dry or stormy and milder?If so then at least it won't be a boring weatherwise - i.e 12 or +13c by day and night with cloudy skies, dull days with drizzle or and light rain etc, 

 

 

Yes high pressure building but vigorous Atlantic systems briefly during a 2 week period, an unlikely scenario because if you have the latter it's usually associated with a progressive zonal train.

 

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Likely lads doing the weekend shift?

They've certainly gone downhill during the last year or two and  I've no inclination as to why as they use to be really well presented.

Update to the longer range text forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

For the middle part of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather, bringing a greater chance of overnight frost and fog. However, for the weeks immediately before and after Christmas, wetter and milder weather will become more likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells, and above average temperatures. Any snow associated with these wet spells is likely to be confined to hills in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Update to the longer range text forecast

UK Outlook for Monday 17 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

For the middle part of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather, bringing a greater chance of overnight frost and fog. However, for the weeks immediately before and after Christmas, wetter and milder weather will become more likely, with the potential for some windy or even stormy spells, and above average temperatures. Any snow associated with these wet spells is likely to be confined to hills in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

So the before earlier today you posted: - 

"As we head through the second half of December there are signs that there will be more frequent periods of dry and colder weather."

.............is not the case now?  Also 17th December - 31 December falls within the weeks immediately before and after Christmas...? They mention for the middle part of December it will be drier and colder but the middle is on 15th and this forecast is from 17th??

haha - just wait until we see some cracking GFS models soon and then the Met Office will flip back to cold again. 

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Seems to be a high level of confidence of some colder and drier weather around mid-month but weather online keeps this HP going! They have early December right so far.

Not many people talk much about Simon Keeling on here, SO i assume he is not as popular or a well known forecaster!?

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https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Valid from 26/11 to 23/12 2018
Valid from 26/11 to 23/12 2018
Issued: Saturday 24th November 2018
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling


Frost and fog, more unsettled later in the month

Higher pressure is expected build during the month increasing the risk of fog and frost as well as dry weather. The Christmas period may become more unsettled with rain and strong winds. Perhaps becoming colder too.

*26/11/18 - 3/12/18*
Deteriorating conditions. Wind and rain to the west, spreading east. Becoming milder

*4/12/18 - 10/12/18*
Unsettled start with rain. Improving through the week.

*11/12/18 - 17/12/18*
Higher pressure brings fog and frost risk again. Dry for many.

*18/12/18 - 24/12/18*
Pressure stays high with fog and frost risk overnight. Dry for many. Need t watch for change in northern Scotland later.

*25/11/18 - 1/12/18*
May become unsettled and colder from the north. Rik of gales and some wintry conditions.

**ends**

Simon Keeling
Email me at [email protected]

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Met office CPF forecast

November update

December to February 

Temperature summary

For December-January-February as a whole, below-average temperatures are more likely than above-average temperatures, with the highest chances of impacts from cold weather later in the period. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for December-January-February will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 25%, and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-djf-v2.pdf

Precipitation summary

For December-January-February as a whole, the chances of above- or below-average precipitation are approximately similar. The probability that UK-average precipitation for December-January-February will fall into the driest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 20% and 25% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-precip-djf-v2.pdf

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and mild weather to come