Next week

Cold easterly wind
Wintry showers in east
Sunniest in west

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46462464

 

Compared with the last paragraph during yesterday's update:

"Temperatures likely to recover to be above average at times, with fewer frosty nights."

yes I noticed that too Tally. A sudden overnight flip- ...confidence, albeit low must have tipped the balance in favour of a cold outbreak after Christmas.

finally a respite from the bowels of the Atlantic....?...

Well we need a rest bite as it's been horrendous over the last week.

I guess tomorrow the met Office outlook will flip back to milder? Hope I am wrong. We need some cold and frosty night's to.kill the bugs and germs.

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Next week

Cold easterly wind
Wintry showers in east
Sunniest in west

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46462464

Wrong:

ECM, gem, gfs and UKMO go for SOUTH WESTERLY by mid week. I know this isn't the model output thread but the forecast is wrong!

 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2018 to Thursday 20 Dec 2018:

Next Tuesday and Wednesday are predominantly settled but cold, with a few showers in the east which could be wintry. Sunshine for many, but parts of the west and southwest may be cloudier with a chance of patchy rain. Through the rest of the period there is a fine balance between the colder drier weather in the east, and Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west. The best of the clearer weather should remain in the east, with any wet and windy weather probably confined to the west and northwest, although rain may spread eastwards at times, bringing with it a risk of hill snow. Temperatures generally below normal, perhaps milder at times in the west, as well as in any brief unsettled spells.

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Friday 4 Jan 2019:

This period is likely to start with a mixture of weather, with spells of settled, drier and colder conditions with overnight frost and fog, but also with a chance of occasional bouts of windy and showery weather bringing a risk of snow. By Christmas and through the last week of December there is a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with western areas seeing spells of windy, wet and milder weather, with the best of any drier but colder weather the east and south. By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2018 to Thursday 20 Dec 2018:

Next Tuesday and Wednesday are predominantly settled but cold, with a few showers in the east which could be wintry. Sunshine for many, but parts of the west and southwest may be cloudier with a chance of patchy rain. Through the rest of the period there is a fine balance between the colder drier weather in the east, and Atlantic weather systems trying to push in from the west. The best of the clearer weather should remain in the east, with any wet and windy weather probably confined to the west and northwest, although rain may spread eastwards at times, bringing with it a risk of hill snow. Temperatures generally below normal, perhaps milder at times in the west, as well as in any brief unsettled spells.

UK Outlook for Friday 21 Dec 2018 to Friday 4 Jan 2019:

This period is likely to start with a mixture of weather, with spells of settled, drier and colder conditions with overnight frost and fog, but also with a chance of occasional bouts of windy and showery weather bringing a risk of snow. By Christmas and through the last week of December there is a more general trend towards unsettled conditions returning, with western areas seeing spells of windy, wet and milder weather, with the best of any drier but colder weather the east and south. By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Well, well, another upgrade from the Met, where is Ian lol!!

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">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Well, well, another upgrade from the Met, where is Ian lol!!

 

Doesn't look as though the Atlantic will have its own way 

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Well, well, another upgrade from the Met, where is Ian lol!!

 

Doesn't look as though the Atlantic will have its own way 

 

Very different to both the GFS Op and its ensembles and the ECM Op and its ensembles . Either these or the forecast wil have to change soon.

 

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Next week

Cold but dry to start
Turning wet and windy
Still open to doubt

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46476591 

Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Dec 2018 to Friday 21 Dec 2018:

Many will be dry, settled but cold through Wednesday and Thursday with eastern and southeastern areas often fine with some sunshine. Elsewhere, skies may perhaps be cloudier with western parts seeing rain and strengthening winds, with a risk of hill snow in the north. Through the remainder of this period there is a fine balance between colder air to the east and milder air in the west. Overall, it is likely to be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain at times, with the threat of snow over high ground. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier with the best of the clearer weather, leading to overnight frosts. Overall, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, but coldest in the east and mildest in the west.

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Saturday 5 Jan 2019:

This period, which includes Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground, less so in eastern and southeastern parts of the UK. The best of any settled and drier conditions will probably be across northern parts of the country during this period, where overnight frosts are likely. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK, bringing more settled conditions, although there remains some uncertainty, with an unsettled and westerly airflow equally as likely into the New Year. Temperatures overall look rather mixed, but on the whole generally near normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Saturday 5 Jan 2019:

This period, which includes Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground, less so in eastern and southeastern parts of the UK. The best of any settled and drier conditions will probably be across northern parts of the country during this period, where overnight frosts are likely. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK, bringing more settled conditions, although there remains some uncertainty, with an unsettled and westerly airflow equally as likely into the New Year. Temperatures overall look rather mixed, but on the whole generally near normal.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Another day...another flip - Compared to yesterday's update:

"By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions."

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Where do we go from here...? So much for milder and wetter spells to be brief then!

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">

Another day...another flip - Compared to yesterday's update:

"By the New Year there is very low confidence in the forecast, but there are signs that weather patterns may become slow moving again, possibly bringing a period of colder and at times more settled weather conditions."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Where do we go from here...? So much for milder and wetter spells to be brief then!

I don't see that as being a flip, bearing in mind all the caveats that were attached to yesterday's update and the fact that colder and more settled conditions are still a 50-50 chance. At most it's a slight shift of emphasis.

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Next week

Chilly start but mainly dry
Turning wet and windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46489601 

Next week

Chilly start but mainly dry
Turning wet and windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46489601

 That forecast does get us possibly a wet end to the period which it is referring to but when you look at the bigger picture though, that forecast doesn't look very wet to me overall which is kind of going against the general model output just now, that is pointing towards a very wet period ahead.

 

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">https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46489601

 That forecast does get us possibly a wet end to the period which it is referring to but when you look at the bigger picture though, that forecast doesn't look very wet to me overall which is kind of going against the general model output just now, that is pointing towards a very wet period ahead.

 

We will likely just see a continuation of the dross that has prevailed since August in which it has rained nearly every day but in such paltry amounts that only November managed an above average total and that was only down to near constant drizzle for 10 days 

I'd love to see a massive precipitation total being clocked up during the second half of the month just not in the form of rain. Otherwise would prefer to have a proper dry spell with frost. Surely the extreme tedium of the past four months has to give way to something vaguely interesting sooner or later.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Thursday 13 Dec 2018 to Saturday 22 Dec 2018:

Thursday looks set to be wet and very windy in the west, but cold and dry in the east. Where these two weather types meet, there could be some snow, probably over high ground in the north. Through the remainder of this period, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow will be confined to high ground in the north. Northern and some eastern areas may remain drier and the best of the sunshine is likely here. Clearer colder nights in these parts is likely to lead to some frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Sunday 6 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. The best of any settled and drier weather will probably be across northern parts of the UK during this period, so overnight frosts are more likely here. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of seeing high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Interesting to hear P Avery mentioning the battle between the mild and cold air saying " Thursday could be interesting "

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Week ahead

Chilly but mainly dry start
Risk of snow on Thursday
Turning wet and windy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46494756 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather for the rest of December

Met office

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Dec 2018 to Sunday 23 Dec 2018:

Friday looks likely to be wet and possibly very windy in the northwest, and colder and drier in the far east. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Over next weekend, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week, eastern and southern areas may become drier for a time with more sunshine but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Dec 2018 to Monday 7 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts. There remains some uncertainty about this; if the high pressure is offset to the west or east of the UK, wet and windy weather would dominate.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Not a good update and despite some deriding the BBC monthlies now they’ve ditched the MetO they’ve been on the ball thus far.