'If the High Pressure is just offset to the West or East' then wet and windy would dominate' I don't see how that can be the case if it is just to the West, or even quite well to the West. 

The East comment is feasible depending on where it is. Either way, they are not buying the HLB solutions that are being mooted by others for this period.

 

 

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Not a good update and despite some deriding the BBC monthlies now they’ve ditched the MetO they’ve been on the ball thus far.

Problem is that the section of their currently monthly outlook for the middle/end of next week contradicts their current favoured outcome on the TV forecasts. 

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Not a good update and despite some deriding the BBC monthlies now they’ve ditched the MetO they’ve been on the ball thus far.

 That's the Met Office forecast

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'If the High Pressure is just offset to the West or East' then wet and windy would dominate' I don't see how that can be the case if it is just to the West, or even quite well to the West. 

The East comment is feasible depending on where it is. Either way, they are not buying the HLB solutions that are being mooted by others for this period.

 

 

The previous sentence is, "However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK."

It means that if the high pressure is west or east of us then we are exposed to LP systems and troughs instead, doesn't it?

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The previous sentence is, "However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK."

It means that if the high pressure is west or east of us then we are exposed to LP systems and troughs instead, doesn't it?

But if it's just to the West then it wouldn't be wet and windy, you might get the Atlantic rolling weak systems over the top or you might get northerlies, which should be white not wet at that time of year. 'Wet and windy' implies vigorous Atlantic systems to me.

 

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Maybe better wording would be "if HP is to our SW or SE that way it could be wet and windy...

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 That's the Met Office forecast

I was  commmering on the BBC one prior to Gav posting the MetO update.

 

Problem is that the section of their currently monthly outlook for the middle/end of next week contradicts their current favoured outcome on the TV forecasts. 

I haven’t seen any of the TV forecasts for a few days now, I suppose it s covering all bases. 😁

'If the High Pressure is just offset to the West or East' then wet and windy would dominate' I don't see how that can be the case if it is just to the West, or even quite well to the West. 

The East comment is feasible depending on where it is. Either way, they are not buying the HLB solutions that are being mooted by others for this period.

 

 

I didn't think the HLB was predicted to come into play late Jan early Feb???

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But if it's just to the West then it wouldn't be wet and windy, you might get the Atlantic rolling weak systems over the top or you might get northerlies, which should be white not wet at that time of year. 'Wet and windy' implies vigorous Atlantic systems to me.

 

I think it might just be your understanding of the word 'just': in meteorological terms that could mean 500- 1,000 miles.  Plenty enough to let troughs into the country.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather for the rest of December

Monday 24 December—Sunday 6 January

Staying mild with some very wet and windy weather

As we end December, there doesn't seem to be much change in the weather pattern, with low pressure systems moving across the UK bringing plenty of fronts, strong winds, and rain, along with milder temperatures. Western areas of the UK are expected to be the wettest and there are indications that rainfall could be well-above normal for the time of year for some areas, with a risk of flooding.

Strong winds appear most likely towards the end of the month.  The generally unsettled theme dominated by low pressure systems will mean that any lowland snow around Christmas is unlikely. However, a brief cold snap between fronts cannot be ruled out, so there is perhaps just the faintest glimmer that some may see a white Christmas. As we head into the new year, the Jet stream looks set to dip south, bringing the low pressure track across the UK and into the Continent. This will bring colder air into the north with Scotland likely to see some snow even down to low lying areas. Further south it will stay wet, windy, and milder than Scotland but generally a bit cooler than December.

Occasional and brief cold snaps in the south are possible after the cold fronts move through, which could bring the risk for wintry showers to low-lying areas at times.

Next Update

Although a white Christmas looks unlikely, could we some snow somewhere in the UK?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Not over higher ground then?  or assuming that snow is expected over higher ground!?

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I haven’t seen any of the TV forecasts for a few days now, I suppose it s covering all bases. 😁

I don't post in these threads normally but as this afternoons Beeb weekly forecast was interesting I thought maybe no one else saw it so maybe say something. Cutting it very short, they basically said by the end of the week it will be a battle between cold from the east and mild from the west, where it meets could well be be snow, but as usual they don't know where it'll meet.

 

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I don't post in these threads normally but as this afternoons Beeb weekly forecast was interesting I thought maybe no one else saw it so maybe say something. Cutting it very short, they basically said by the end of the week it will be a battle between cold from the east and mild from the west, where it meets could well be be snow, but as usual they don't know where it'll meet.

 

Yep - I mentioned that forecast earlier and how it appeared to contradict the Beeb's text monthly outlook.

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Poor BBC monthly no sign of the forecast SSW having any effect by early January.  

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Poor BBC monthly no sign of the forecast SSW having any effect by early January.  

Given it's already most likely gone to pot by this Thursday by the BBC's own admission (Shaff's "The current thinking has changed in the last 24 hours"), I wouldn't worry too much! 

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Given it's already most likely gone to pot by this Thursday by the BBC's own admission (Shaff's "The current thinking has changed in the last 24 hours"), I wouldn't worry too much! 

His comment was referring to the coming battle between the mild air to the west and cold air to the east; the thinking has shifted today towards the cold air winning out in the initial clashes but he said the milder weather would push in later in the weekend.

 

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Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 15 Dec 2018 to Monday 24 Dec 2018:

A spell of wet and windy weather looks likely to move east across the country on Saturday. There could be some snow where the colder air meets the wet weather, most likely over the hills in the north, but it may fall to lower levels in places too. Thereafter, the weather is likely to be changeable and often windy and cloudy, with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Any snow is most likely on high ground in the north. During the following week,there may be some drier spells for a time with more sunshine, but clearer colder nights would lead to some night frost. Overall, temperatures are likely to be around normal for the time of year.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 8 Jan 2019:

The early part of this period, including Christmas, is looking fairly changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, possibly wintry over higher ground. Temperatures look likely to be around normal for the time of year. However, later in the month and into the New Year, there is the chance of high pressure becoming established close to the UK. This would bring drier and colder weather, and a greater chance of night frosts and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

I wonder when this will be updated?

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob 

Very keen to know what they go for as last month's update trended average - which could mean colder ...so this month's update? 🙂

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US snowstorm kills two in North Carolina

"A heavy snowstorm has swept through US south-eastern states, killing at least two people and leaving hundreds of thousands without power.

A state of emergency has been declared in North Carolina, with some areas reporting as much as 0.5m (18.5ins) of snow over the weekend.

One man died after a tree fell on his car. A search is under way for a driver whose vehicle was found in a river.

Thousands of flights were also cancelled across the region."


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-46504527 

Yorkshire water have obtained drought permits to reduce water shortage risk next year

https://twitter.com/Hudsonweather/status/1072174076431601665