The Weather Outlook

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Gusty
16 December 2018 12:49:42

A very good update.  The signals must be strong as normally the words 'low confidence' are used at that range.

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

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Shropshire
16 December 2018 12:51:44

That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

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Gooner
16 December 2018 13:09:04

That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

For balance 

 

It works both ways , a mild update can be upgraded also , though you are more likely to go back to mild just because we are the BI and we have a big bit of water to the West

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Solar Cycles
16 December 2018 13:09:17
Confidence must be high at Exeter on cold blocked conditions taking hold as we head into the New Year. Looks like the +height anomaly will be located to our NE and any frontal attack will come from the SW.
picturesareme
16 December 2018 13:26:50

Confidence must be high at Exeter on cold blocked conditions taking hold as we head into the New Year. Looks like the +height anomaly will be located to our NE and any frontal attack will come from the SW.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

Gooner
16 December 2018 13:40:10

 

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Not really 

The NW can still have rain when other areas further South have a NEly or Ely flow 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



picturesareme
16 December 2018 13:47:04

 

Not really 

The NW can still have rain when other areas further South have a NEly or Ely flow 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

it doesn't say northwest it says north and west.

Solar Cycles
16 December 2018 13:58:48

 

"rain confined to north and west" indicates high pressure to the southeast quarter i.e. south, southeast or east.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

I was referring to the extended outlook into the New Year.

Gooner
16 December 2018 14:07:23

 

it doesn't say northwest it says north and west.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Ok

Not really 

Parts of the North and West can still have rain when further South can be in a NEly flow 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Brian Gaze
16 December 2018 15:58:24

That's as wintry as an update that we are likely to see at that range - but we've had similar ones only for them to be dropped as the time moves nearer and events upstream change.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

I agree. However their December lrf updates have IMO been terrible and I'm usually quite supportive of them. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Whiteout
17 December 2018 12:42:23

Met update still leaning towards a cold first half of Jan 

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Gavin D
17 December 2018 12:45:08
Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

moomin75
17 December 2018 12:58:13

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Another very positive update there. Clearly UKMO believe something is brewing.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Frostbite80
17 December 2018 12:59:42

Met office

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Dec 2018 to Monday 31 Dec 2018:

Saturday looks like being mild with sunshine and showers. It is likely to be breezy in the south. Winds will probably be stronger generally on Sunday with gales around exposed coasts and hills. Rain may be persistent in the south though probably still showery in the north. The UK is likely to stay rather wet and windy for those last minute shopping trips on Christmas Eve. However, there are signs that Christmas Day itself may be drier, brighter, colder and less windy, though wind and some showers remain quite likely in the south. During the last week of December dry cold bright weather is more likely, with rain increasingly confined to the north and west.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Looks like a slight backward step with the mention of wet, windy and mild but otherwise it has some promise but we do not want further back tracks over the next few days.

tallyho_83
17 December 2018 13:26:29

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Frostbite80 

Looks like a slight backward step with the mention of wet, windy and mild but otherwise it has some promise but we do not want further back tracks over the next few days.

 

Yes exactly - the said mild, wet and windy weather is still possible!? 

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

warrenb
17 December 2018 13:27:32
It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.
Tonbridge 45m 
Whiteout
17 December 2018 14:12:14

It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Agree, at that range they would be foolish to rule out our default pattern. 

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Frostbite80
17 December 2018 14:41:16
Then why not put that caveat in their update yesterday? To me it’s because they may have more uncertainty of the cold weather today than they did yesterday?
tallyho_83
17 December 2018 14:42:37

 

Agree, at that range they would be foolish to rule out our default pattern. 

Originally Posted by: Whiteout 

So why are the GFS models going for unseasonably mild weather into New Year? - sooner or later the FI in these runs esp the OPERATIONAL and Control will have to go cold and blocked soon!?

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Solar Cycles
17 December 2018 15:27:37
Not liking the MetO update it virtually rules out heights over Greenland and instead we’re subject to possibly another crap Scandi high no doubt, also the wording doesn’t seem quite as bullish as previous ones....... Sorry though I was in the moaning thread. 😜
David M Porter
17 December 2018 15:32:03

It is not a back-track, it is a percentages game, the odds on is the first 6 sentences but the caveat (Like Leicester winning the premier league) cannot be ruled out.

Originally Posted by: warrenb 

Precisely.

The possibility of wet, windy and mild weather in January would have been there yesterday just the same as it is today. January is still just over a fortnight away and trying to forecast the weather in the country for a week or less ahead is difficult enough at the best of times, let alone for further ahead.

Until the SSW event has happened and we can see the effects (if any) that it had on the model output that we can see and the extra output that the pros have, nothing can be ruled in or out.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Whiteout
17 December 2018 15:44:44

 

So why are the GFS models going for unseasonably mild weather into New Year? - sooner or later the FI in these runs esp the OPERATIONAL and Control will have to go cold and blocked soon!?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Because like earlier this year the models will struggle with developments until much closer to the time. Remember the met were bullish well before the ssw in feb while the models were all over the place, patience, patience 

Home/Work - Dartmoor

240m/785 ft asl

Gavin D
17 December 2018 21:37:40
Run-up to Christmas

Unsettled

Wet and windy at times

Fairly mild

A little cooler by Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46599825 

Gavin D
18 December 2018 12:14:54
Met office

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Dec 2018 to Tuesday 1 Jan 2019:

Sunday will see a band of cloud and rain move northeastwards, followed by a mixture of sunny spells and further organised bands of rain or heavy showers. It'll be windy too, especially towards the coasts in the south and west. Temperatures will tend to stay mild for the time of year. The north and west is likely to stay rather wet and windy on Christmas Eve, with the rest of the UK looking drier. For Christmas Day itself, it may be drier, brighter and colder for most, followed by some rain later. As we head towards the New Year, dry cold and bright weather becomes more likely, with any weather systems becoming increasingly confined to the north or northeast.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Jan 2019 to Tuesday 15 Jan 2019:

In the New Year there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate as winds turn easterly. In the north, dry, cold and mostly calm weather is more likely, with frost and fog on many nights and mornings. Wintry showers are quite likely near eastern coasts. Although weather systems may be rather slow-moving and stay out in the Atlantic, where they do push across the UK there will be an increased risk of snow at times. Although signals suggest that a cold spell is the most likely scenario in January, the extent and longevity of the cold weather is uncertain. Wet, windy and mild weather are still possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Solar Cycles
18 December 2018 12:34:52
Just potency and longevity appears to be where any uncertainty lies.

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