- CFSv2 Still going for a blocked end to Jan and Feb looks really blocked too:

Just wish the shorter range models like the GFS could pick up on this 'blocked pattern' - Either the models are not responding to the SSW yet or these longer range models many of them including (JMA, ECM, Met Office Glosea 5, BCC and MeteoFrance, DWD etc) which have gone for a colder than average end to Jan and Feb - could be wrong?

Sooner or later one would have to back down because the GFS model now goes out to the 25th Jan and there is still little signs of northern blocking and a strengthening of the Azores high as well. - as is the case on the latest 12z run.

A lot of Scottish and local weather pages on facebook ramping up the possibilities of a big change in conditions up  here from next week onwards

100% agree 

6 to 10 day outlook

A colder spell
Night time frosts
Chance of wintry showers

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46832541

John Hammonds latest monthly forecast

• Mild start
  
• Turning wetter then colder
• Disruptive snow risk later

Full forecast available to read for subscribers here: https://weathertrending.com/2019/01/11/john-hammond-month-ahead-fed-waiting/

Thanks for posting this, all positive 

Blimey, just read Matt H's latest tweets, that is a ramp if ever I read one 

Snow brings parts of Europe to standstill

"Heavy snowfalls brought chaos to parts of Germany and Sweden on Friday, leaving roads blocked, trains halted and schools shut. The Red Cross helped drivers stuck on a motorway in the southern German state of Bavaria as schools and rail services were also hit. A nine-year-old boy was killed by a falling tree on Thursday. Northern Sweden was hit by a storm that made roads impassable"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46835677

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Jan 2019 to Friday 25 Jan 2019:

Cloudy skies and a spell of rain will slowly edge southeastwards on Wednesday, clearing most places by the end of the day. Behind this it will turn clearer and colder from the north by Thursday, with scattered blustery showers, becoming wintry across northern areas. Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the north at times. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with any milder spells tending to be brief and associated with longer spells of rain. The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas. especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Saturday 9 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Thanks Gavin, short term upgrade there

Another tick in the cold box:

marco petagna‏ @Petagna 22m22 minutes ago

More

Signal for the AO to become very negative with more of a neutral to slightly negative NAO forecast now than recently...all pointing more and more towards colder #weather in the UK.

He also writes this:

marco petagna‏ @Petagna 19m19 minutes ago

Latest from http://weatheriscool.com : The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other yrs in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.6 m/s Weakest zonal wind 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date: -8.4 m/s 2004

Fantastic update in the shorter term and watch this space for upgrades over the longer term in the next day or so. Shades of 47. 😜

It was only a couple of days ago he was scoffing at the prospects of a cold/snowy spell.

I guess that's why he's not really respected as a forecaster.

"Rather than the Beast from the East it may be bursts of colder air set forth from the north"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/46845121

UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2019 to Saturday 26 Jan 2019:

Blustery, wintry showers will continue in northeastern areas on Thursday, but they will gradually ease. It will then be mostly settled, before thickening cloud and outbreaks of rain move eastwards during Friday. Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the northeast at first, but they will ease for a time. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with gales possible in the north. Any milder spells will tend to be brief, and associated with longer spells of rain. The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas, especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

Longer range not yet updated

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Jan 2019 to Saturday 9 Feb 2019:
During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

Updated: 00:53 on Sat 12 Jan 2019 GMT

Has now properly updated:

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Jan 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

That was yesterday's update hense why I didn't post it

Today's

UK Outlook for Sunday 27 Jan 2019 to Sunday 10 Feb 2019:

During the last week of January and into early February, there is an increased likelihood of cold weather being established across all of the UK, with temperatures continuing a downward trend to become cold or very cold. This would bring a greater risk of snow, ice and widespread frost, particularly across northern parts of the country. However, there remains uncertainty over the extent of the cold weather and how long it will last, and it is still possible that some milder and wetter interludes will intersperse this generally cold period, especially in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Nice little upgrade there.

I was trying to spot the difference in yesterdays update to the latest today's met Office update as they are virtually indentical and then I spotted a few words that have been included ..! So it's an upgrade!

These weather stories get dafter by the day

"But in a couple of weeks' time, the temperatures will fall to about 3.5C"

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-forecast-colder-temperatures-and-snow-possible-as-end-of-month-nears-11605525?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

Could explain why site traffic is going up towards Beast levels this afternoon. If things continue like this I'll have to test how easy it is to provision more cloud capacity.