ECM has masses of blocking can we get a cold feed?

ECM at 240 ends up where we are now (well almost), but cold seeping in. Very interesting with the charts killing off the Atlantic.
Martin

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ECM has masses of blocking can we get a cold feed?

 

Models definitely starting to sniff something around Christmas time. This could be the Beginning!

 

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Looks like a slice of mildness from the NAVGEM this evening in the run up to Christmas.  

the 12zs find JMA in similar mood:

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I’m awaiting Ian’s report on the zonal consistency of the ECM before commenting further.

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Something is brewing, the Atlantic looks to be losing its grip. Plenty of HP options, we just need a favourable feed

Something is brewing, the Atlantic looks to be losing its grip. Plenty of HP options, we just need a favourable feed

I think we may well need one or two bites at the cherry.  Possibly during the twelve days of Christmas will the cold arrive in more earnest?

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Certainly enough in the 12z GEFS to whet the appetite in the run up to Christmas!!

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I’m awaiting Ian’s report on the zonal consistency of the ECM before commenting further.

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I’m awaiting Ian’s report on the zonal consistency of the ECM before commenting further.

bit controversial 😂😂

I’m awaiting Ian’s report on the zonal consistency of the ECM before commenting further.

it may be a bit delayed ... he is no doubt out campaigning for St Jeremy 

 it may be a bit delayed ... he is no doubt out campaigning for St Jeremy 

He's popped out for some pizza this evening. He'll be back to view the ECM 12z soon 

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Sone very cold members starting to show up on the ECM De Bilt ensembles.

Something's definitely brewing.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

 

 

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Again, some interesting output tonight. After far too many years of looking at NWP, the one thing I know is that when I see charts like this:

..it's not indicative of "this is what will happen", rather it's "*IDK! Give Me a Break".

A pattern shift is potentially in the offing in the mid- to longer term. Expect the models to toy with blocking/non-blocking like a cat with my boot laces for a few days yet before it's resolved.

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Whats worth noting is rewind about 7 days & some posters the amount of 'emphasis' being placed on 'zonal' weather returning quickly to move away the blocking, yet were out to day 10 & its still there...

No zonal weather insight- infact the UKMO 144 is pretty blocked-

I’m really surprised this place isn’t a little more busy. I think we are well placed for a cold snap between Christmas and New Year.

I’m really surprised this place isn’t a little more busy. I think we are well placed for a cold snap between Christmas and New Year.

could be. Certainly, things have improved notably from the dredge of a week or so ago.

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I’m really surprised this place isn’t a little more busy. I think we are well placed for a cold snap between Christmas and New Year.

It's possible but at the moment only 5 frames out of 352 brings the blues within sight of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=294&chartname=ps_850tempuk&chartregion=uk&p=1&charttag=PS%20850hPa%20temp

 

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I’m really surprised this place isn’t a little more busy. I think we are well placed for a cold snap between Christmas and New Year.

The Web as a whole seems to be pretty quiet. I imagine that a lot of people are busy doing their pre-Christmas preparations or partying.

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The Web as a whole seems to be pretty quiet. I imagine that a lot of people are busy doing their pre-Christmas preparations or partying.

Either that or they are too pre-occupied with the Brexit thread in UIA.

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