In the hope that a new thread will bring renewed fortunes...

Usual rules.

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I'm still watching the stratospheric warming, not so much out of expectation for wintry weather but if curiosity re. what effects if any it will have on our weather in the UK. There is no strong signal for anything wintry at the moment and the warming is due in a couple of days or so:

http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php?plot=temps&alert=1&lng=eng 

Michael, is there some tenuous link between SWWs and a high-street electronics store that I am not aware of? 😊

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I think this may run for a fair while! 😴

Michael, is there some tenuous link between SWWs and a high-street electronics store that I am not aware of? 😊

Just ruined your fun by putting the correct link in your post 

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HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SATURDAY JAN 23RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weak ridge of High pressure will move away East today as a new set of frontal troughs move NE over SW areas tonight and the rest of the UK tomorrow followed by a very mild and moist SW flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 5000ft across NE Scotland today to 7000ft over the SW rising further tonight to exceed 10000ft for much of the UK tomorrow. With these sort of freezing levels snow cannot be expected.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild but some cooler spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow to blow setting up in a NNE direction up the West and NW of the UK for the next few days. It then realigns to blow West to east across Northernmost parts of the UK for the remainder of the period quite strong at times with much of the UK remaining on the milder side of the flow at least until late in week 2.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows no change to the output of late with persistent and often mild and strong West or SW winds across the UK with fast moving bands of rain running through on the flow. High pressure moves up close to the South at times restricting the heaviest and most persistent falls of rain to the North while these areas too see occasional colder interludes with wintry showers albeit very briefly between weather systems.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is the same as the Operational Run in every respect with mild Atlantic winds maintaining relatively mild and changeable conditions for all with rain at times especially across the North and West with some drier spells across the South and East closest to High pressure over Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are still very mixed but a 60% pack seem to support High pressure lying to the SW of the UK with a West or WNW flow across the UK with average temperatures and rain at times especially towards the North. 40% show High pressure to the SE of the UK and 20% of this group has High pressure well to the SE with the influence of Low pressure right across all areas of the UK in a cyclonic Westerly flow.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows strong WSW winds next week in a changeable pattern of fast moving troughs crossing the North with rain at times followed by brief colder interludes with showers while the South stays milder with more occasional rainfall than further North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today detail the complexities of the mild SW flow with troughs crossing NE or east on regular occasions alternating mild with chillier conditions in the North while the South stays relatively mild and breezy with rain or drizzle at times.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning shows windy weather over the next 10 days with winds always coming from a SW, West and later NW direction. Very mild air at first becomes somewhat cooler though not cold later with rain at times still for many though still most prolific across the North where colder conditions could bring wintry showers at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some slightly colder more showery conditions across the far North and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where some very mild days look likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very disturbed for the UK over the next 10 days. throughout the period a very strong Jet flow across the UK ensures all areas see spells of sometimes very wet and windy weather with temperatures on the mild side of average. It may become somewhat colder at times with brief interludes of wintry showers between weather systems but overall the most important message from ECM this morning is the return of troublesome amounts of rain again to many western and Northern areas in particular.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows rock solid support for Low pressure to the North of the UK and a broad trough west of it to Greenland maintaining a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain and showers at times. While generally mild colder interludes will no doubt affect all areas at times when some wintry showers could affect the North especially in the middle of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts. At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to GFS at 88.3 pts then UKMO at 88.1 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.4 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 49.4 pts to 48.3 pts respectively.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS There remains little differences from the models to that shown of late with absolutely rock solid support from all the main Operational's and many of the ensemble members too for a continuation of the recently set up Atlantic domination we have had to endure for 90% of this Winter. For the next few days it is going to be almost exceptionally mild again with 15C exceeded by many tomorrow, some 22C higher than was the case just 4 days prior. It may be spoilt by cloud and light rain though with the North and West as usual seeing the worst of this. Thereafter the very mildest conditions do seep away somewhat with a more traditional mild then cool alternation of events as various frontal systems run quickly through any one place on the very strong Atlantic flow with gale or severe gales at times. The most alarming thing shown within some outputs this morning is the return of collective rainfall events offering the possibility of a return to flooding issues developing none more so than in the areas already affected this Winter. This may not occur if the passage of troughs is quick but there is some output which shows trailing fronts straddling the UK at times giving sustained rainfall to the places underneath them, something to watch for sure. In the longer term there is still a desire to shift the vortex of Low pressure further to the East towards Scandinavia but unfortunately heights refuse to fall over Iberia leaving the UK in just a rather colder flow from a Westerly point still and Winter still very much on hold as a result. So I'm afraid that it is looking well into February now before any chance of cold returns for the UK and with a flat zonal pattern that exists currently coupled with such a strong Jet Stream again any changes look likely to be slow and arduous.

Next Update Sunday January 24th 2016 from 09:00

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The slight cooler 12z ECM has moved towards the very mildGFS this morning so all models agree on a spell of very mild unsettled weather.

I mentioned a few days ago the possibility of a 1998 type of February with exceptional temperatures and a Super Bartlett to the south and that us exactly what is being modelled on some of the output. It was in February 1998 that Pauul Bartlett christened his creation and there are some huge Bartletts around during the next two weeks, it's not so much a Uncle Barty as Grandad Barty and all his cousins!

Early days but could the mildest winter on record be up for grabs? With the record December and mild January February will be the decider but I wouldn't bet a months salary against it.

Time to go and sharpen the blades on the lawn mower.

Andy

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That high pressure looks like it's really going to dig it's heels in.

The slight cooler 12z ECM has moved towards the very mildGFS this morning so all models agree on a spell of very mild unsettled weather.

I mentioned a few days ago the possibility of a 1998 type of February with exceptional temperatures and a Super Bartlett to the south and that us exactly what is being modelled on some of the output. It was in February 1998 that Pauul Bartlett christened his creation and there are some huge Bartletts around during the next two weeks, it's not so much a Uncle Barty as Grandad Barty and all his cousins!

Early days but could the mildest winter on record be up for grabs? With the record December and mild January February will be the decider but I wouldn't bet a months salary against it.

Time to go and sharpen the blades on the lawn mower.

Andy

If it does turn out that way then the Met have got their seasonal prediction badly wrong.

I saw a clip from M Taylor on here yesterday and he was still saying a potential for a colder Feb and March

 

Time will tell

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The slight cooler 12z ECM has moved towards the very mildGFS this morning so all models agree on a spell of very mild unsettled weather.

I mentioned a few days ago the possibility of a 1998 type of February with exceptional temperatures and a Super Bartlett to the south and that us exactly what is being modelled on some of the output. It was in February 1998 that Pauul Bartlett christened his creation and there are some huge Bartletts around during the next two weeks, it's not so much a Uncle Barty as Grandad Barty and all his cousins!

Early days but could the mildest winter on record be up for grabs? With the record December and mild January February will be the decider but I wouldn't bet a months salary against it.

Time to go and sharpen the blades on the lawn mower.

Andy

I had to cut the grass in both November and December.  Mind boggling! I'm NOT writing off all of February, I think the "colder second half to winter" will kick in around mid February and then, as SB said in the last thread:

 March will slap us all in the face with its horrid stinging Nor'easters, horizontal sleet and icy starts to the day

Just a gut feeling, which is backed up by the models (insofar as they currently show mild way into FI) and that look at second half of winter issued by the  BBC,  and by the musings of the lovely Tamara.

 

 

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Not much hope here

But it can soon change in your favour

Doesn't last long but you get the idea

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I had to cut the grass in both November and December.  Mind boggling! I'm NOT writing off all of February, I think the "colder second half to winter" will kick in around mid February and then, as SB said in the last thread:

 March will slap us all in the face with its horrid stinging Nor'easters, horizontal sleet and icy starts to the day

Just a gut feeling, which is backed up by the models (insofar as they currently show mild way into FI) and that look at second half of winter issued by the  BBC,  and by the musings of the lovely Tamara.

 

 

Cutting grass in November and December isn't that odd too be honest, had to do it back in the 80's and it still does on to this day

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The place to watch is the US where marked changed can be seen on the ECM 00z days 7-10. These reflect the tropical + Strat Warming coupling starting to take effect upstream, the next stage is to get the changes in the Atlantic.

This propagation probably won't be handled well by the models at the current range, but is day ECM would start to make the Atlantic pattern into more of a neg NAO setup by around two weeks from now.

GFS sort if tries but never really gets the right pattern. Still waiting for it to catch on.

It is a fair but of waiting to be done I know, but no need to worry too much. Powerful highs over Europe have been in place not long prior to some decent cold weather periods in times past :)

But yeah, I would like things to speed up a bit from an IMBY perspective. It's not impossible given the unusual forcing combination in place which potentially would make even full cross-model consensus rather meaningless.

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The place to watch is the US where marked changed can be seen on the ECM 00z days 7-10. These reflect the tropical + Strat Warming coupling starting to take effect upstream, the next stage is to get the changes in the Atlantic.

This propagation probably won't be handled well by the models at the current range, but is day ECM would start to make the Atlantic pattern into more of a neg NAO setup by around two weeks from now.

GFS sort if tries but never really gets the right pattern. Still waiting for it to catch on.

It is a fair but of waiting to be done I know, but no need to worry too much. Powerful highs over Europe have been in place not long prior to some decent cold weather periods in times past :)

But yeah, I would like things to speed up a bit from an IMBY perspective. It's not impossible given the unusual forcing combination in place which potentially would make even full cross-model consensus rather meaningless.

Over on NW in the Strat thread they seem very happy with ECM at the moment, someone called singularity is optimistic about cold in the UK and Europe further down the line

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From IF on NW

 

Latest (yesterday's) GloSea5 remains consistent and - as I mentioned on Thursday eve - has ECMWF support:

- Broadly westerly pattern to mid-Feb

- Switch to meridional pattern mid-Feb onwards, with ridging in Atlantic; UK flow NW-N'ly

• Thus increased prospect of colder weather relative to 1st half of month

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Cutting grass in November and December isn't that odd too be honest, had to do it back in the 80's and it still does on to this day

Marcus, I've been at my present home for 11 years and having to cut the grass in both Nov and Dec (in order to stop the local cats using the long grass as a convenient loo!) is new to me.  Every other year its needed a November cut, but I had to do this again on Dec 30th and that is indicative of the effects of the 4th mildest November followed by the mildest ever December on record.  Going forward who knows?  But this mornings models are not indicative of a quick route to cold. At least we had a week of cold and some frost.

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Ongoing poor output this morning and as has been the case in recent years even when there is a transfer of low heights to Scandinavia, a strong lobe of the PV remains to our NW.

Hopefully we can avoid 4 weeks of zonality but the conveyor is well set.

 

 

 

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From IF on NW

 

Latest (yesterday's) GloSea5 remains consistent and - as I mentioned on Thursday eve - has ECMWF support:

- Broadly westerly pattern to mid-Feb

- Switch to meridional pattern mid-Feb onwards, with ridging in Atlantic; UK flow NW-N'ly

• Thus increased prospect of colder weather relative to 1st half of month

great some frosts to look forward to then lol 😀

Some of the worst output of the winter this morning if you're looking for cold. Options vary from a euro slug, to a raging north aligned jet to a massive expanse of HP from the mid atlanti all the way over to Eastern Europe

To see proper cold and snow I'll have to stick to my plans and move to Canada

The pattern looks remarkably stable and robust with heights to the south and a strong PV to the north self perpetuating itself to create an incredibly strong run of zonality for the foreseeable.

In such circumstances it is fair to say perhaps controversially that FI can be extended to 10 days.

For the south high pressure appears close enough to retain a generally dry theme in an otherwise very mild, breezy and often cloudy set up.

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Singularity, Tamara and GP have very coherent thoughts with respect to developments out to mid-Feb.

 

Thinking about what GFS seems to be missing out on, here's the latest MJO outlooks:

Notice UKM(E) and ECM(F) taking the MJO out to phase 4. This is the beginnings of an expected eastward propagating MJO across the Pacific (travelling phases 4/5/6/7/8/1 much as the last one did that you can see as the black line).

There is some uncertainty about the timing though, with UKM(E) considerably faster than ECM(F). With the previous event, UKM(E) performed well with the initialisation and it will be rewarding if it does so this time as well, as that would lead to the fastest modification of the U.S. and then Atlantic pattern in Feb.

GEFS is basically lost, confused by there being a lot of anomalous warmth in both the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean at the same time.

 

As for that update on GloSea5, remember it's an ensemble model and there will be some variation within. Hence 'broadly westerly' to mid-Feb. It's a decent call though given that even the most optimistic signs in the current output don't indicate any marked change earlier than 7th Feb.

If you want a change sooner rather than later you'd best hope GloSea5 is also being fooled by the unusual tropical forcing to some extent. I expect that even if the Met Office suspect as such they can't be confident enough to adjust any public guidance accordingly. After all, I've had to give a wide range that goes as far as mid-Feb as well - though I don't have access to as many or as advanced a set of tools as they do.

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