This Friday UKMO and GFS the next named System James if they name it then, will be affecting the far Western NW UK third of UK, East and SE and NE dry bright with pressure higher, less windy.

On Saturday: The (if) Named Low at 975 mbs from 985 Low brings a bit cool or nearer normal temps in the NW areas, but still a bit above average further South and East, bands of rain or scattered heavy showers and fairly strong winds as the Low spins over West NW Central UK.

On Sunday: Colder with further heavy rain and for NW and North UK hill snow with rain showers lower down, and in the SW South and SE a bit above normal to average temperatures with a spell of hill snow West and North and NE of the Short wave trof, or spell of heavy rain from SW then Central S and SE UK.

On Monday: A New PV Low moves in from the West mid North west Atlantic which moves ESE then East NE as it merges with NW UK Polar Vortex Low, for we will get heavy snow in North Central Ireland NW and North England and much of Scotland even to lower levels, but more likely the further north of this area e.g Scotland ahem.  The South SE and SW UK likely colder than Sunday  with chance of further rain with some hill snow in the west and north here, otherwise before and after this frontal Low from the West UK passes there it will bring bluster showers with rain-hail and sleet/ snow on hills with average temperatures by then while Scotland and Northern Central Ireland see below average temperatures.

This is the current thinking.

😀😋🌧.

 

 

That's exactly how I'm seeing Saturday Laiq.

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Dire set of run's again - looks like staying mild - even by mid month when it was forecasted /expected to turn colder and drier:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif 

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Have to wait until March to see some drier and colder weather: - But I thought this would be the case February as predicted / expected but seeing as it's going to stay mild the whole month especially for the SOUTH we need to look ahead to March, a spring month. - if you run this sequence it's cold for almost 2 weeks. Between 720h - (2/3/2016) and 1050h - (16/3/2016)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

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Dire set of run's again - looks like staying mild - even by mid month when it was forecasted /expected to turn colder and drier:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.gif

 

You really have to wonder what the METO/Ian F are looking at, there is so much cyclogenesis that it seems inconceivable that an Atlantic or UK High could build to bring a settled spell in 10-14 days time.

The 06z is churning out another very progressive and stormy effort.

 

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Ok, fine but I know where my money is going at this present time.

 

 

Well maybe you can show in chart form ..? as it seems that you never back up your comments with any visuals

 

Well maybe you can show in chart form ..? as it seems that you never back up your comments with any visuals

 

Ok, Saturday morning average temps ahead of the system :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn10217.gif

Next lot of crud rolls in, rain :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1084.gif

 

Its cleared through with temps a few degrees above freezing :

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn11417.gif

 

 

 

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Your pithy point was 'I don't know what the Beeb are looking at', intimating that they were making it up or getting their information from scrying into a mystical mirror and glancing at pine cones.

 

 

All that is needed here is the feature to run a little more southerly than is modeled on the GFS.  The Beeb even says it will be a feature for heavy rain for southern counties - which doesn't line up with GFS.  hence the confusion on here.

 

If the MEt/Beeb have the feature modeled to run through the central and southern England, then its fair to say at the northern edge away from the mild sector - this could well be snow.  Similar to Boxing day 2014.

 

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I'm currently composing a eulogy to the Great British Winter - a combination of El Nino and GW has done for you, which you will all get to here v.soon.

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Let's hope that Ian is right here.

Me too! The fact we have only had one or two dry days throughout the whole of January says it all. Now we are in February and things don't look any different - let's hope this is short lived!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3361.gif

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But I thought this would be the case February as predicted / expected but seeing as it's going to stay mild the whole month especially for the SOUTH we need to look ahead to March, a spring month. 

You may end up being right, but how on earth can you be so sure, especially given IF's tweets?  Your comment is a triumph of pessimistic expectation management over objective analysis.....   Even if the GFS is correct in modelling out to t+384 (and since when has GFS been reliable at even close to this range, even when the pattern seems set!), then to extrapolate that for another two weeks is surely crazy.

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You may end up being right, but how on earth can you be so sure, especially given IF's tweets?  Your comment is a triumph of pessimistic expectation management over objective analysis.....   Even if the GFS is correct in modelling out to t+384 (and since when has GFS been reliable at even close to this range, even when the pattern seems set!), then to extrapolate that for another two weeks is surely crazy.

IF?? Ian Fergusson?

Well, just hope he is correct - what is his tweet?

Just can't see anything cold in the models - just shows zonal weather - wet and windy weather with occasional drier /cooler spells but even these only lasting a day.

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IF?? Ian Fergusson?

Well, just hope he is correct - what is his tweet?

Just can't see anything cold in the models - just shows zonal weather - wet and windy weather with occasional drier /cooler spells but even these only lasting a day.

I keep telling ya! The models don't have a handle on the coming changes yet - give it another 4 or 5 days and we will be seeing some real eye candy.

Changes are coming - we just have to be patient for another couple of days or so.

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I keep telling ya! The models don't have a handle on the coming changes yet - give it another 4 or 5 days and we will be seeing some real eye candy.

Changes are coming - we just have to be patient for another couple of days or so.

I think you must be Steve Murr's prodigy

Meanwhile the zonal train looks pretty stormy and with a couple of bouts of more southerly jet, the south will doubtless get a hammering from rain if not the strong winds.

Ensembles suggest most runs are maintaining that tedious upper profile of between +5'c and -5'c 850 hPa which is pretty cack for the south although favoured northern areas will continue to see spells of wintriness.

Roll on spring

 

I keep telling ya! The models don't have a handle on the coming changes yet - give it another 4 or 5 days and we will be seeing some real eye candy.

Changes are coming - we just have to be patient for another couple of days or so.

 

We will have to see Maunder, I find it very hard to see where mid-latitude ridging is coming from never mind what might be called 'real eye candy'. I notice on the other side some of the more usually upbeat posters are throwing towels in and GP the torpedo man as disappeared completely ! 

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There's growing, if still tentative, signs now (bolstered further by today's EC Monthly on the heels of GloSea5, plus the EC 30d MJO outlook) for a likely change of type further into this month towards a more settled & colder flavour. The transitional period mid-month (post-MSLP rises to W) is tricky for models: may be transitory, but ditto any return to mobility thereafter looks potentially short-lived, ahead of something drier/chillier to close this winter.

From IF earlier this morning

 

All my banging on about the MJO may yet pay off.

Actually, I say that, but it has already made a huge difference to the projected strength of the ridge into the Arctic that leads to the U.S. cold shot and could allow for a mid-Atlantic ridge and sliding low combination mid-month (this being the tricky transitional period).

So the verification of MJO-led expectations has been good for the N. hem pattern as a whole, but unfortunately this has not yet worked out for the UK in terms of getting more than transitional, north-focused snow out of it. Sounds very typical doesn't it?  Events in the stratosphere have not played ball and this is the main reason for our troubles mid-month. It could have been so much quicker and easier but when that second bout of warming came into view some 10 days ago, it became clear that there was a considerable risk things would not go well (it had to produce a split vortex to deliver the goods. No dice.).

 

Still plenty of indications, now being hinted at by Fergie, that the MJO will traverse 6/7/8 during the final 10 days of the month, which corresponds strongly to increased HP influence which then transfers to the N and NW of the UK. Only when the actual extremity of the resulting pattern becomes apparent will I know whether to be happy about that or not... in my books, it has to be something special to justify a delay to spring!

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I don't understand the downbeat tone on here especially taking into account this mornings interesting update on the Meto 6-30 day forecast. Surely people must understand that the UKMO have access to a wealth of non-public domain data that we do not have access to??

Surely people must understand that the UKMO have access to a wealth of non-public domain data that we do not have access to??

 

 

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Wrapping this thread up very shortly......

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