There is also the possibility that due to the eastern bloc collapsing at the end of the 80s that industrial pollution has decreased rapidly thus with cleaner air there is less sunlight reflected and less cooling going on at the surface, is it a coincidence that after 1989 easterly blasts became rarer compared to before?  I think Retron mentioned this the other day - a very complex topic and hard to prove one way or the other. Whether February will deliver cold or not is anyone's guess - if it doesn't let's have a February 1998 which for some places would be better than the whole Summer last year was .  I suspect chances of a February 1998 may be higher than a February 1991 looking at today's output and given that was also a strong El Nino year as well. On the cold chance side of things, at least GFS has stopped moving the strat warming back now and a minor one still due in the nearer time frame.  Poor output today though again it has to be said for cold weather fans.

 

Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.

 

 

One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.

 

 

Doesn't matter for us anyway, James Madden says the snow in the NE is heading our way 

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I think there has been a significant change in weather patterns at mid latitudes in the last three decades. The absence of high level blocking to our north east in mid winter is, for me, the clearest indicator that something is different.

We have had high level blocking to the NE (Kara Sea)  for weeks this winter. 

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Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.

Yes even in March 2013 we had lying snow in the evening and morning but come lunchtime that sun was strong as hell and melted anything not in the shade - as you say mid Feb is the tipping point for us down here. If we can't have cold let's at least have a Feb 98 with no further cloudy mild muck days like tomorrow is going to be, waste of a Winter's day.  Latest GFS run has something of a hint of something in 324 hours time (JFF - that's how bad the output is!):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0

And really JFF just look what the CFS is showing for early March..you couldn't make it up:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1002&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Did much of that have to do with solar activity ? I think it did.

That is wriiten where?

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Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!

This is the point unless its justaimed at the UK

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Yes even in March 2013 we had lying snow in the evening and morning but come lunchtime that sun was strong as hell and melted anything not in the shade - as you say mid Feb is the tipping point for us down here. If we can't have cold let's at least have a Feb 98 with no further cloudy mild muck days like tomorrow is going to be, waste of a Winter's day.  Latest GFS run has something of a hint of something in 324 hours time (JFF - that's how bad the output is!):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=0

And really JFF just look what the CFS is showing for early March..you couldn't make it up:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1002&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

 

 

 

That wouldnt bother me

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Lol I suspect a Feb 98 looks a more realistic option than anything colder at the moment, hopefully we'll see some changes in the output soon but to be honest once we reach mid February and beyond I ain't interested in cold and snow due to the Suns strength and lacklustre attempts at snow over for lowland England & Wales.

I agree, even this far north snow will be thawed by the sun from the third week in February onwards unless it's exceptionally cold and I doubt that this year!

Even at the end of the very cold winter of 2009/10 we had a snowfall on the 2nd March on frozen ground but it had melted by the evening despite a dry day and max of only 2c.

IMO we have one month of winter left max and it ain't looking good.

Andy

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To re-iterate: latest GloSea5 ensembles have predominance of -ve temp anomalies after mid-Feb. Latest EC Monthly has neutral or -ve bias. Crucially, neither exhibit a +ve signal. 

From IF

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One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.

 

Well, to be precise it's about where you live relative to large land masses and large expanses of ocean.  

The north west coast of the USA and west coast of British Columbia have similar winter weather to the British Isles and if it wasn't for the Rockies that influence would extend some way further inland.  As it is the Great Continental Divide separates the west coast maritime climate from the continental climate that exists east of the mountains.

Weather in winter in North America is still influenced by the behaviour of the jet stream and the PV.  You haev only to contrast this winter to date with a couple of years ago when the PV dropped down into North America for a time.

 

 

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Nothing cold in the forseeable future.

Nothing cold in the forseeable future.

No, not especially, but at least back to normal and not a repeat of the very mild conditions of December.

Meanwhile here's the ECM 00z ensemble for London.  Pretty solid agreement through to next Thursday. After that the usual scatter but buried in there is a coldish cluster and a looser grouping of mild runs, resulting in a mean farily close to average.

 

The Op was very much at the top end of the rainfall spread.  If it's correct there's a very active cold front coming our way next Wednesday, as indicated on the 850 hPa chart below

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

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I agree, even this far north snow will be thawed by the sun from the third week in February onwards unless it's exceptionally cold and I doubt that this year!

Even at the end of the very cold winter of 2009/10 we had a snowfall on the 2nd March on frozen ground but it had melted by the evening despite a dry day and max of only 2c.

IMO we have one month of winter left max and it ain't looking good.

Andy

That's where your perceptions differ from mine.  One of the ONLY ice days in 11 years IMBY  (none in December 2010) was achieved in mid March 2013.

March 2013 proved to some (admittedly not all the country, but large swathes of it) that when March puts its mind to it, it is capable of severe cold that makes most January's blush.

The latter half of February is THE main banker time of the year for snow in Kent at least, and early March is probably the second best opportunity.  The seas will be at their coolest and the Arctic Ice approaching its greatest extent, making northerlies potent with the added bonus of land and sea based convection.  In my book winter runs til the equinox.

 

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This mornings ECM 00z mid term ens:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html 

Mobile for the foreseeable. Going to get very wet again for everybody. The north and west should be on orange alert already in my opinion for more disruptive flooding.

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That's where your perceptions differ from mine.  One of the ONLY ice days in 11 years IMBY  (none in December 2010) was achieved in mid March 2013.

March 2013 proved to some (admittedly not all the country, but large swathes of it) that when March puts its mind to it, it is capable of severe cold that makes most January's blush.

The latter half of February is THE main banker time of the year for snow in Kent at least, and early March is probably the second best opportunity.  The seas will be at their coolest and the Arctic Ice approaching its greatest extent, making northerlies potent with the added bonus of land and sea based convection.  In my book winter runs til the equinox.

 

I agree , March can really deliver when it wants to, sometimes more so than December

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Can you post charts for mid Feb and March to back that up....................how can you make a comment like that ?

They see a lot more info than we do , the signs must still be there ?

Some people will never learn.  

 

The latter half of February is THE main banker time of the year for snow in Kent at least,

Your bit of Kent, maybe!

March 2013 failed to bring any ice days here - before December 2010, the last ice day was in 1997 (and before that, 1996, 1995, 1993, 1991, 1987, 1986, 1985... you get the idea). March 2013 also failed to deliver more than a slushy dusting, although that itself was the first March snow here since the 80s.

By the latter half of February it's generally too late for ice days and decent snow where I live - the only time I've known it to happen was 1986, but that was an exceptional month through and through.

Still, winter's only just half-over and TBH given how dismal it's been so far I'd grab a slushy dusting of snow with both hands!

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Your bit of Kent, maybe!

 

For most of it, I would have thought.  Leysdown is an extreme environment in many respects Darren, and is not hugely representative of the rest of Sheppey, let alone Kent, especially in terms of snow.

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There does seem to be evidence that the jet-stream has become more amplified globally as a result of the Arctic warming more than the tropics - reducing the temperature contrast which powers the jet-stream. While many have suggested this may result in greater increase of blocked patterns it could also have the opposite effect for us. A trend in recent years has been for the jet-stream to fire North along Western USA and back south across Eastern USA. This has given the drought to California and some of the big cold and snow events across Eastern USA.

The effect of the jet-stream digging S across E N. America is that it drags very cold air from Arctic into the Atlantic, which engages with the warm tropics and fires up the jet-stream and depressions which then smash into Blighty. Winter 13/14 was a classic example of this.

So while the jet-stream hemispherically becomes overall weaker it could result in a localised strengthening in winter across the N. Atlantic and for us. There's also the fact that Greenland is melting with the cold melt-water possibly cooling SSTs in that area. This could further enhance the temperature contrast and the jet.

This is only a theory but a plausible future trend for our winter climate, but we need many more winters to be confident this is a permanent trend.

For most of it, I would have thought.  Leysdown is an extreme environment in many respects Darren, and is not hugely representative of the rest of Sheppey, let alone Kent, especially in terms of snow.

Actually, having lived here for 34 years now - it is representative of the rest of Sheppey. I live half a mile inland from the sea and if it generally doesn't snow here it doesn't snow anywhere on Sheppey. The only difference is that the hills to the west (all of 200ft high) get a wee bit more snow when it actually does decide to snow!

We certainly didn't have any problems getting snow before 1998, but as I've said before something's changed since then to stop us getting deep cold easterlies. Nobody would like to see the end of the drought more than me, believe me... Sheppey and the north Kent coast in general was well-known for its silly amounts of snow in the late 70s to the mid 90s, although that snow affected all areas westwards towards the North Downs.

From what I can glean of the longer term outlook (largely thanks to IF's posts about ECM and GLOSEA), it looks like the February cool-down, assuming it happens, will come via northerly and NW'ly winds - useless for here, frankly, but should bring some cheer for those further north and west. There doesn't seem to be any sign at all of a deep cold easterly spell, sadly.

 

 

 

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