I think the BBC weather team are going to have egg on their faces from Matt Taylor's video yesterday going for a very high chance of much colder Feb and March - nothing from today's output to suggest this - in fact the total opposite

---

I think the BBC weather team are going to have egg on their faces from Matt Taylor's video yesterday going for a very high chance of much colder Feb and March - nothing from today's output to suggest this - in fact the total opposite

Can you post charts for mid Feb and March to back that up....................how can you make a comment like that ?

They see a lot more info than we do , the signs must still be there ?

---

Winter is over.

---

Winter is over.

 

Please stay on topic and sriram your comments may end up being as inaccurate as they are premature. Time will tell. 

Things look very mobile but for reasons already mentioned by others in the thread I think it is worth watching how things look in the coming few days. 

Until then there is always the chance of something wintry passing by briefly for more NWern parts http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif In the midst of the more general westerly flow.

---

Some of the worst output of the winter this morning if you're looking for cold. Options vary from a euro slug, to a raging north aligned jet to a massive expanse of HP from the mid atlanti all the way over to Eastern Europe

To see proper cold and snow I'll have to stick to my plans and move to Canada

 

There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?

---

 

 

There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?

No

Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......

---

 

 

There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?

In one word: No!

And don't start wittering on about the "modern winter" again!

 

---

 

No

Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......

 

What I am saying is every year is improvement on the last in terms of modelling and knowledge; if events don't turn out how teleconnections suggest they should, then we need to look at why that may be the case. As I've said before, this period from the late eighties onwards has often defied conventional wisdom.

 

 

---

 

Can you post charts for mid Feb and March to back that up....................how can you make a comment like that ?

They see a lot more info than we do , the signs must still be there ?

Absolutely agree. This morning's output focuses on a different timescale to the one Matt alluded to, with the very comprehensive range of signs that he considered; and it's the coincidence of those signs that matters.

We shouldn't forget that the models combined threatened a continuation of December's dross in the New Year; what followed wasn't a perfect cold spell, as another thread on here has made clear; but nor was it expected by the outputs.

---

 

No

Ian you wouldn't have posted that 3, 4 or 5 years ago when we were in a run of winters that produced decent snow events .......

 

Did much of that have to do with solar activity ? I think it did.

---

I think there has been a significant change in weather patterns at mid latitudes in the last three decades. The absence of high level blocking to our north east in mid winter is, for me, the clearest indicator that something is different.

---

Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!

---

 

 

There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?

 

In one word: No!

And don't start wittering on about the "modern winter" again!

 

To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 

---

 

To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 

Indeed Brian there has been a change in circulation patterns but these are fickle beast as 2009/10 and December 2010 showed. It could easily flip into a period of much cooler extremes with the declining solar output and the next flip in the AMO.

 

To be fair I think Paul Bartlett first mooted the possibility of a change (or arguably 'reinforcement' as Kevin Bradshaw may consider it) in the global circulation in the late 1990s. The 'Bartlett' high wasn't a new phenomenon but the increasing incidence of it was. I posted a chart in early winter (can't find unfortunately) which showed that since the 1950s there has been an increase in + height anomalies over Europe and an increase in - height anomalies to the north west of the UK. Depending on our beliefs we may choose to think this is either part of a natural cycle or a consequence of AGW. Either way, we should not be denying the possibility that something has changed. 

The problem is that it is impossible to aver that the regional climate has changed on the basis of a few decades - these things are measured in centuries. Go back to the 1920s and you may find a similar patternb, because our weather is infinitely variable. We have had snow droughts in earlier decades - the 1970s were not particularly notable for good winters, although the 1960s and early 1980s were. I am pretty sure we will get another decent winter before long, but whether that is in 2016-17 or 2017-18 or later, I shall leave up to the weather.

Yes, it is deeply frustrating, but that is the way it is. In 50 years, they will be able to look back and say more clearly whether there was a genuine pattern change in the current period or not.

---

 

 

There's a lot of talk about changes down the line and why this should happen etc...if after all that it's remains zonal, will people start to accept that there has been a significant change in our winter weather patterns ?

I think our winters are the same as they always have been - mild and largely snowless, typical of an island facing a large ocean on the western side of a continent at the mercy of the prevailing westerly wind which is largely to blame for our anomalously mild climate relative to latitude. The frequency of cold winters has clearly decreased, as it has almost everywhere in the world as the result of a general warming trend over the past 3+ decades (which is more pronounced in high latitudes than in mid-latitudes), but that's about it.

---

 

 

What I am saying is every year is improvement on the last in terms of modelling and knowledge; if events don't turn out how teleconnections suggest they should, then we need to look at why that may be the case. As I've said before, this period from the late eighties onwards has often defied conventional wisdom.

 

 

to be honest that's a very fair point. Computer power and our meteorological understanding has increased no end over the last decade, unless there is a mystery overseeing all encompassing "other factor" that we are missing then you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see what facts are staring you in the face. There have been marked changes no doubt, possibly due to natural variation or other factors.

Indeed Brian there has been a change in circulation patterns but these are fickle beast as 2009/10 and December 2010 showed. It could easily flip into a period go much cooler extremes with the declining solar output and the next flip in the AMO.

There is also the possibility that due to the eastern bloc collapsing at the end of the 80s that industrial pollution has decreased rapidly thus with cleaner air there is less sunlight reflected and less cooling going on at the surface, is it a coincidence that after 1989 easterly blasts became rarer compared to before?  I think Retron mentioned this the other day - a very complex topic and hard to prove one way or the other. Whether February will deliver cold or not is anyone's guess - if it doesn't let's have a February 1998 which for some places would be better than the whole Summer last year was .  I suspect chances of a February 1998 may be higher than a February 1991 looking at today's output and given that was also a strong El Nino year as well. On the cold chance side of things, at least GFS has stopped moving the strat warming back now and a minor one still due in the nearer time frame.  Poor output today though again it has to be said for cold weather fans.

 

Try the "modern winter" rubbish on the east coast Americans this morning!

 

One of the changes, arguably the biggest one is +ve NAO in the winter months, the Amercans are not dependent on that.

 

 

---