Well its the ecm turn to be bad cop this morning . Always thought Gem was the best model anyway. A stunner this morning 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.html

 

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Ecm getting there by day 9 again but its a painfully slow route 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

 

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We now appear to have reached some sort of resolution for the end of the week.

Low pressure close to the NW giving Scotland a continuation of their torrid summer. It could be quite cool on the east coast of Scotland if any easterly sets up in the cyclonic flow. The unsettled conditions should merely brush the south before high pressure from the Azores soon nudges back in resulting in a corresponding rise in temperature to maintain the good summer overall. 

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We now appear to have reached some sort of resolution for the end of the week.

Low pressure close to the NW giving Scotland a continuation of their torrid summer. It could be quite cool on the east coast of Scotland if any easterly sets up in the cyclonic flow. The unsettled conditions should merely brush the south before high pressure from the Azores soon nudges back in resulting in a corresponding rise in temperature to maintain the good summer overall. 

0z ECM gets the cyclonic bug but shrugs it off by day 9. Detail for next weekend still sketchy.

 

 

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We now appear to have reached some sort of resolution for the end of the week.

Low pressure close to the NW giving Scotland a continuation of their torrid summer. It could be quite cool on the east coast of Scotland if any easterly sets up in the cyclonic flow. The unsettled conditions should merely brush the south before high pressure from the Azores soon nudges back in resulting in a corresponding rise in temperature to maintain the good summer overall. 

Some sort of resolution? 😂😂 Have you seen ECM? There is no resolution whatsoever. It's completely up in the air as usual. The joys of model watching in the UK. 😊😊😀😉

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Some sort of resolution? 😂😂 Have you seen ECM? There is no resolution whatsoever. It's completely up in the air as usual. The joys of model watching in the UK. 😊😊😀😉

ECM has azores high moving in in a weeks time. Of course all that could change but that is what the model is showing at present. GFS also shows azores high heading in the right direction.

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Ecm mean Better than the Op. Shows pleasant conditions developing for most but no heatwave.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

 

 

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We now appear to have reached some sort of resolution for the end of the week.

Low pressure close to the NW giving Scotland a continuation of their torrid summer. It could be quite cool on the east coast of Scotland if any easterly sets up in the cyclonic flow. The unsettled conditions should merely brush the south before high pressure from the Azores soon nudges back in resulting in a corresponding rise in temperature to maintain the good summer overall. 

Agreed with the usual caveats 

Ecm mean Better than the Op. Shows pleasant conditions developing for most but no heatwave.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.html

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

 

 

I think largely settled and warm basically sums up them charts, despite the generally westerly flow.

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GFS 6z shows the south gaining HP influence with brisk W to Swlies over the country as Scotland contends with cyclonic influence by next Friday evening/ Sat am:

 

 

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GFS 6z shows the south gaining HP influence with brisk W to Swlies over the country as Scotland contends with cyclonic influence by next Friday evening/ Sat am:

 

 

Very much what Steve was saying and in line with the summer theme of Azores ridging.

Shame the trolling of this thread is continuing though

 

Shame the trolling of this thread is continuing though

Glad you mentioned that. This is supposed to be a serious and meaningful section of this forum.

I'll be going through the posts on here and there will be some warnings.

Please stay on topic.

 

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Glad you mentioned that. This is supposed to be a serious and meaningful section of this forum.

I'll be going through the posts on here and there will be some warnings.

Please stay on topic.

 

 

"Warnings" just lol. You have two previously multiple times banned members. Did you guys expect them to change? And then you have a donut who screams summer is over or it's 1976 with every changing run. Warnings? Bans. 

Anyway - back on topic. Agree with Gusty to an extent. Appears to be relative agreement in the models at present. Not bad for south of the midlands. Worse the further north you go, so not good news for those still to taste summer oop north. Caveats of changing outputs at that range apply. 

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We just have to laugh at the 12z ecm and hope its wrong 

 

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We just have to laugh at the 12z ecm and hope its wrong 

 

Will be interesting to see what the ECM 12z mean shows when it comes out later on. This morning's 00z mean run seemed to show a less unsettled scenario compared to the op run, so hopefully this evening's mean will follow suit.

Seems to me that the models are in a land of confusion at the moment, at least to some degree.

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Will be interesting to see what the ECM 12z mean shows when it comes out later on. This morning's 00z mean run seemed to show a less unsettled scenario compared to the op run, so hopefully this evening's mean will follow suit.

Seems to me that the models are in a land of confusion at the moment, at least to some degree.

 

We'd be incredibly unlucky if the ecm is correct tonight.  Nightmare run.  Pretty mixed output all in all .

 

 

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If the ECM were to verify we would likely see some extremely tasty convection. 

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ECM has been every bit as volatile as the other models for some time..its not in my view all it's cracked up to be and has been constantly flip flopping between wet and dry hot and cool.
I think it's pretty clear that anything past midweek is complete FI at the moment.

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ECM has been every bit as volatile as the other models for some time..its not in my view all it's cracked up to be and has been constantly flip flopping between wet and dry hot and cool.
I think it's pretty clear that anything past midweek is complete FI at the moment.

Can't really disagree there, Kieren.

I think the real fly in the ointment as far as the models are concerned right now is the thundery low that is forecast to move northwards from France from Tuesday night onwards; this wasn't spotted by the models IIRC until a couple of days ago. I don't think it will be until maybe Tuesday when the models will have a better grip on exactly how the low from the south is likely to interact with the one approaching from the atlantic on Wednesday before they know with any certainty what is likely to transpire from late next week onwards.

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The flip in the models to unsettled conditions has been extraordinary . From 1976 to 2007 . This morning there's virtually no sign of any good weather at all. 

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