Dry and fair with sunny breaks and partial cloud and a very comfortable 22.7 C, just a bit of a north west breeze keeping humidity levels at 40%.

I really couldn't have picked a better day to extend my back yard. I've adopted a long since abandoned and closed off pathway which has never been touched by anyone - including the council - for two decades so I might as well have it, especially as I paid to have a sycamore tree cut down from there. It's only a metre wide but might as well make use of that wasted space to put a new weather station there.

Ian invest in a Davis.  I get irritable reading syndrome (irs) when your  Maplin does its thing.

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Ian invest in a Davis.  I get irritable reading syndrome (irs) when your  Maplin does its thing.

Whoops, my last comment was meant for current conditions!

Well, the good news is that it is going to be a Davis Vantage Vue.

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Well, if anything it's adjusted the low a bit further north so the best we can hope for from this run now is the main low staying west of the UK. Ideally northwest. It does have more in the way of westward extent than on previous runs so that suggests there's a chance, at least.

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Well, the good news is that it is going to be a Davis Vantage Vue.

Wonderful news ! 

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Remember when you used to get loads of running commentaries on model runs?

I think it was a time known as 'winter' 

Anyway - the main low has set up further west as hoped so we're in a fairly slack sunshine and showers setup. Question is, will the low be a good fella and stay west? Given this is the GFS, I'm not getting my hopes up .

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UKMO 12z at 144 for comparison:

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UKMO 12z at 144 for comparison:

 

That's better perhaps only a 2 day unsettled blip. Gfs though is still being a %@#$ . Fascinating output at the moment though models all over the place.

 

 

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That's better perhaps only a 2 day unsettled blip. Gfs though is still being a %@#$ . Fascinating output at the moment though models all over the place.

 

 

To be truthful, I'd be more concerned about things if the GFS chart looked the better one and the UKMO was more unsettled.

Maybe it's just me, but I have always been very reluctant to trust GFS on its own. Too many let-downs with it in the past and all that.

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To be truthful, I'd be more concerned about things if the GFS chart looked the better one and the UKMO was more unsettled.

Maybe it's just me, but I have always been very reluctant to trust GFS on its own. Too many let-downs with it in the past and all that.

GEM at 144 pretty similar to GFS. Interesting that it's the first time in a while with such a difference between UKMO at 144 and the other Ops. We'll see what ECM brings us.

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UKMO 12z at 144 for comparison:

 

A big relief to see it siding with the ECM 00z in terms of the general progression, given how far GFS managed to go wrong anyway despite the low starting off less nearby than on preceding runs. Both it and GEM seem obsessed with keeping lows in our vicinity for some reason .

Here's hoping ECM sticks to its guns tonight for a good old Euro v. N. America standoff 

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I'm just going to keep cheering myself up with obscure GEM ensemble runs, like this evening's P05 and P14. Where there's life there's hope.

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After a couple of iffy days ecm is still fighting the good fight. 1000 times better than gfs . Something will have to give soon.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

 

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After a couple of iffy days ecm is still fighting the good fight. 1000 times better than gfs . Something will have to give soon.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

 

Looks like a 2 or3 day wonder, that trough, before the high reasserts itself.  I'm very happy with the ECM this evening.

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Well the GFS manages to produce something even worse. It has a tendancy to overplay the persistance of low pressure though as seen by the follow up to the late June heatwave which wasn't as bad as modelled.

The ECM really doesn't look that bad at all so hopefully its on the right track.

As for the warm spell on Tuesday, it seems badly timed for storms down here as it moves through during the night. Hopefully I'm wrong though, no storms here yet this year. Maybe we could get some French imports....

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Nice for once to see some discrepancy between the models at that mid range. ECM looks like a middle ground between UKMO and the rest. More runs, as ever.

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Actually the rainfall totals on the latest runs aren't so bad. It's the coldness not only in the south but all the way down into southern France in FI that are sad to see. So there is scope still for GFS to get worse in 18z: a deluge.

Interesting what happens when the pattern gets more meridian all. It's on a knife edge between horrific and scorching. When it's zonal things are simpler, if a little unfair: wet and windy in the North West and Scotland, warmer and drier in the SE.

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0z GFS backs last night's ECM.  Here is the scenario for a week's time at the start of the school hols:  Azores high ridging into SW, cyclonic influence more prevalent in Scotland.  Will be interesting to note what the ECM proffers this morning.

this morning's GFS

12z ECM yesterday:

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GEFS seems to have improved overnight . Warmer less rain

 

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Enough low pressure over S Britain on Wed according to fax and other charts for an ample amount of thundery rain. But GFS 12z rainfall (above) and local MetO forecasts (50% chance of a shower in this area) seem reluctant to turn these synoptics into actual rain.

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Crap ecm Op has to be said . We can count ourselves very unlucky we've ended up here 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

 

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