Historically, GEM has tended to overdo the 850s in plume events (yet not the 2 m temp maximums, strangely enough) while ECM has a curious habit of producing overly sensational plume breakdown events.
So... caution is advised with those two runs this evening. Even more so when considering just how much more stable but fresh(er) the GFS run is, with a stronger ridge that deflects the focus of heat away to the SW.
A halfway house would arguably be the optimum outcome for next weekend; enough of a ridge to delay any electrical shenanigans until Monday evening, but not one so strong that we miss out on a chance to see the high 20s during the May Bank Holiday which is a novelty I for one would like to see 
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Way out in time but - the ECM day 10 poses the interesting question; can an Atlantic trough + UK-Euro ridge be maintained while the Arctic is dominated by an extensive area of high pressure? In theory, the reduced overall westerly momentum could make it possible to lock-in that trough-ridge configuration, but locally increased latitudinal temperature gradients have a habit of bringing about faster sections of jet stream that put an end to such dreams.
With any luck, such extensive Arctic blocking will be avoided in the first place. At that range, the range of possibilities is very wide indeed 
Oh and before I leave;
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On