AP

Where are you getting that from................looks nothing like those sorts of temps.

 

 

Wetterzentrale Mittel Europa 0.25 charts show 16c next Monday . As has been said for the UK max you can normally add a couple of degrees to that. Very warm for February 

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Given how delayed spring is around these parts it'll make for a welcome change. Not one Daffodil observed anywhere in bloom yet and I cover quite some areas at work. They're usually out just after Christmas and into the first half of Jan.

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Made you click on it though.

Interesting question, can there be such thing as a winter heatwave? Would 19C be a heatwave because it's so far above average or should that term only apply to uncomfortably hot weather (I.e. 19C in the Isle of Sheppey or 45C+ in West Ewell)?

Heh!

I would say a heatwave occurs when the weather could be described as "hot" - which according to the old MetO guidelines is only possible from mid-May to mid-September. This is the list of definitions, which used to be on the Met Office website in years gone by.

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:yZkqMpWUfUQJ:https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applications/core/interface/file/attachment.php%3Fid%3D81944+&cd=6&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk&client=firefox-b-ab

 

 

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GFS showing maxes of 10 in London and 12 in Cornwall today. It'll be a good test of whether it's undercooking the maxes in this warm spell. Still showing 15C in places next Monday.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_9_17.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK00_141_17.png

 

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Think we could see 15 or 16C here on the lee side of the Pennines. Unlike December, mild weather in February is often the result of high pressure and sunshine rather than Atlantic rain and winds. Certainly possible to get sunny, spring-like days around this time of year. Definitely looking forward to it. 

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Feels the coldest here today that it has all winter. Supposed to be 9C according to the Met office forecast at the moment, but with low cloud and misty drizzle it's clingingly cold. Really need the woodburner blazing to take the chill off the house.

Such a contrast with, say, Sunday 22 January, when, despite several days of ice on the water butt, I took the dog down to Exmouth for a walk, and found the beach choc-a-bloc with people enjoying the sunshine. Families with children playing on the sand, even a few swimmers. It could have been August apart from the temperatures being not much above freezing.

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Feels the coldest here today that it has all winter. Supposed to be 9C according to the Met office forecast at the moment, but with low cloud and misty drizzle it's clingingly cold. Really need the woodburner blazing to take the chill off the house.

Such a contrast with, say, Sunday 22 January, when, despite several days of ice on the water butt, I took the dog down to Exmouth for a walk, and found the beach choc-a-bloc with people enjoying the sunshine. Families with children playing on the sand, even a few swimmers. It could have been August apart from the temperatures being not much above freezing.

 

So true. It was quite cold today, only got up to 7.5c at 3pm and it was freezing indoors. Had to put the heating back on. So much for the 'fabled' SSW. Is this what it's all about. Bringing warmth in late Winter. I thought it was supposed to make things colder? 

12C in London and 14C in Skye today, presumably under foehn conditions. The London reading puts it 1-2C above GFS hi res max, so I'm sticking with my 17C guess for highest temperature of this spell.

Not as warm as Iceland though. Got above 19C yesterday.

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Today's GFS12z turns up the thermostat next Monday. If correct we could see temps a couple of degrees higher than this.

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A few 13s today with models showing 11-12C, and this despite not much sun. Next Monday on 18z GFS showing 15C widely and a few 16s. We'll see a 17, I'm pretty sure (and some 14s or possibly 15s in foehn-prone spots over the next 3 days). 

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GFS still largely similar to recent runs, showing 13-15C quite widely with a few spots in the east showing at 16C. Will be interesting to see how warm areas with abundant sunshine and foehn effect-prone spots get. My guess is maybe 17.4C as a high on Monday?

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Hit 12.1c. Already..   Enjoyable sunshine through the cloud.

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Colder in edinburgh this morning than it was at any time during last weekend's easterly. Down to -1 at the airport station. Phew, what a scorcher!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?R=310&LEVEL=140&ART=temperatur&WMO=03160&LANG=en&SI=mph&CEL=C 

A few 13s today with models showing 11-12C, and this despite not much sun. Next Monday on 18z GFS showing 15C widely and a few 16s. We'll see a 17, I'm pretty sure (and some 14s or possibly 15s in foehn-prone spots over the next 3 days). 

Trouble is, with a W or NW tendency to the airstream, the most sheltered locations will be to the ESE of the country (your map above shows this well). There would have to be vast volumes of water vapour in the air, all precipitating out, to produce a worthwhile adiabatic difference over the slight altitude changes involved- so no real foehn effect.

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Trouble is, with a W or NW tendency to the airstream, the most sheltered locations will be to the ESE of the country (your map above shows this well). There would have to be vast volumes of water vapour in the air, all precipitating out, to produce a worthwhile adiabatic difference over the slight altitude changes involved- so no real foehn effect.

Actually on the days there's a foehn opportunity (today, tomorrow) the wind is westerly and the airmass is quite moist so there is every chance of adiabatic warming and this shows in the max temp charts: NE Wales and the Marches.

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Norfolk looks like being the "hot spot" with 16 C by mid-afternoon Monday if this WRF output is to go by on.




However, temperatures will merely be "on the mild side" here at Kent, even though winds are expected to be westerly so we wouldn't be too affected by the relatively cool Channel (currently 8 C at the Strait of Dover, which is actually slightly above average for this time of year).

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Actually on the days there's a foehn opportunity (today, tomorrow) the wind is westerly and the airmass is quite moist so there is every chance of adiabatic warming and this shows in the max temp charts: NE Wales and the Marches.

You're right- a slight effect on Sunday with a more westerly component, but although dew points are likely to be about as high today, I think the wind will be more of a southerly- still a chance along the N Wales coast, and perhaps the N Devon coast but here with most of Exmoor below 500m perhaps only a 2 or 3 degree difference. Aberdeenshire might be in with a shout, do you think?

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You're right- a slight effect on Sunday with a more westerly component, but although dew points are likely to be about as high today, I think the wind will be more of a southerly- still a chance along the N Wales coast, and perhaps the N Devon coast but here with most of Exmoor below 500m perhaps only a 2 or 3 degree difference. Aberdeenshire might be in with a shout, do you think?

I think there will be a Föhn effect of sorts here and we'll end up with a very mild day albeit rather windy and cloudy. I do think the highest temperatures may be elsewhere though (more sheltered eastern parts further south).

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Nice looking springlke charts this morning. The cool blip on Friday may bring a touch of wintriness in parts of the north briefly but with daytime maxes of 7 or 8c down here in south in polar airmass based sunshine it will barely be noticed. 

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Enjoying the milder weather very much! Can go out in a t-shirt, lower heating costs, can hang the washing out this weekend.

I think I'm becoming a mildie! Not unexpected thanks to the poor 'cold' spells this year and the lack of meaningful snow even here!

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