Spring begins on Wednesday. Over the next 72 hours temperatures over large swathes of England and Wales rise from 2-3C now to 11C on Wed, hover around the 10-11C mark for a couple of days then jump to 13-14C by the weekend and and then (if GFS is to be believed) stick in the mid teens for a week or so.

I predict we'll see a 17C out of this spell, somewhere in the marches or in the lee of Snowdonia. Let's see.

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17C in February is very good! Only seen on very rare occasions like February 2008 and 1998. In fact, I certainly wouldn't say "no" to a February 1998-type winter heat wave! 19.7C at Greenwich on 13 February 1998 is the record!

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17C in February is very good! Only seen on very rare occasions like February 2008 and 1998. In fact, I certainly wouldn't say "no" to a February 1998-type winter heat wave! 19.7C at Greenwich on 13 February 1998 is the record!

I remember that month as well - it's great you have the chart to match it.

I also remember what happened in April 1998 around the beginning of the month!?

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Looking at the latest set of runs, I think talks of a notable February warm spell is looking a bit premature at this point. A bit of a pity really but, again, not entirely unexpected and it'll still get to feel pleasantly spring-like in any bright spells we do get to have this week and into the weekend.

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I remember that month as well - it's great you have the chart to match it.

I also remember what happened in April 1998 around the beginning of the month!?

Yes indeed. Snow in the early part of April 1998 and then further snow and torrential rain over the Easter weekend. Some places were really flooded out that month.

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17C in February is very good! Only seen on very rare occasions like February 2008 and 1998. In fact, I certainly wouldn't say "no" to a February 1998-type winter heat wave! 19.7C at Greenwich on 13 February 1998 is the record!

WELL - spot the difference between the Feb 1998 chart and FEB 2017 - The chart Looks virtually identical. - especially the positioning of the HP.

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The shape of the HP looks distinctly different to me. In '98 we had southerlies wafting up all the way from N.Africa whilst in 2017 we have SWlies from the Azores. Notably lower thicknesses as well.

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Another very mild gfs run the 6z has 16c quite widely in the north next Monday so 17c maybe even 18c on the cards.

 

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Another very mild gfs run the 6z has 16c quite widely in the north next Monday so 17c maybe even 18c on the cards.

 

What data are you using for that? The highest I've seen is on this chart http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017021306/180-582UK.GIF?13-6 which shows a mild 14°C in parts of central and eastern England a bit cooler in the north and south?

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What data are you using for that? The highest I've seen is on this chart http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017021306/180-582UK.GIF?13-6 which shows a mild 14°C in parts of central and eastern England a bit cooler in the north and south?

 

Wetterzentrale Mittel Europa 0.25. Has zoomed in temps shows 16c for north England 

 

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I wouldn't say "quite widely" but yes, GFS 06z run does have some 16c grid points for next Monday around the eastern side of the south Pennines and Snowdonia.   Indicative of a good fohn effect.   Western coastal districts more like 9 or 10c

That said, even at a range of T+0 GFS tremp charts are considerably less reliable than a Nathan Rao headline    So it could, I suppose, hit 18c 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1774.gif 

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I wouldn't say "quite widely" but yes, GFS 06z run does have some 16c grid points for next Monday around the eastern side of the south Pennines and Snowdonia.   Indicative of a good fohn effect.   Western coastal districts more like 9 or 10c

That said, even at a range of T+0 GFS tremp charts are considerably less reliable than a Nathan Rao headline    So it could, I suppose, hit 18c 

 

If it was extreme cold then it would have no chance of verifying but extreme warmth seems to be easily achievable these days.

 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhgfs1774.gif 

At the moment, that probably seems the most likely scenario should this pattern come to fruition. Probably quite widely 12-14C across the bulk of the country, with some sheltered spots and areas prone to the foehn effect reaching 15-16C. I can't see anything much higher than this at the moment.

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What data are you using for that? The highest I've seen is on this chart http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017021306/180-582UK.GIF?13-6 which shows a mild 14°C in parts of central and eastern England a bit cooler in the north and south?

I'm not sure why their plot is maxing at 14C. The TWO plot one is showing 15C and often local variation mean the GFS values are exceeded by a couple of C.

 

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At the moment, that probably seems the most likely scenario should this pattern come to fruition. Probably quite widely 12-14C across the bulk of the country, with some sheltered spots and areas prone to the foehn effect reaching 15-16C. I can't see anything much higher than this at the moment.

Based on current data that would be my take on things too. Still a bit early for any confidence though and it wouldn't surprise me if everything was a bit further south as has often been the case recently.

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I'm also on 20C-watch for South West France. There are a few 19Cs showing up around Bordeaux this week and a single cheeky 20C next week combined with 19C in central France. A swing in wind direction to a more SSW flow could give us 21C+ in Gascony and the Basque Country.

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Another very mild gfs run the 6z has 16c quite widely in the north next Monday so 17c maybe even 18c on the cards.

 

AP

Where are you getting that from................looks nothing like those sorts of temps.

 

 

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I'm not sure why their plot is maxing at 14C. The TWO plot one is showing 15C and often local variation mean the GFS values are exceeded by a couple of C.

 

So no heatwave then ? 

Thought I had missed something . The title of this thread is a tad misleading .

That's like having a thread for last week and this weekend called " Day after tomorrow to hit the UK"

 

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So no heatwave then ? 

Thought I had missed something . The title of this thread is a tad misleading .

That's like having a thread for last week and this weekend called " Day after tomorrow to hit the UK"

 

Made you click on it though.

Interesting question, can there be such thing as a winter heatwave? Would 19C be a heatwave because it's so far above average or should that term only apply to uncomfortably hot weather (I.e. 19C in the Isle of Sheppey or 45C+ in West Ewell)?

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