Met Office Hadley            5.2c.           Anomaly       1.7c.  Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                         4.54c.         Anomaly       0.39c.

Netweather                      5.05c.         Anomaly       0.86c.

Peasedown St John     5.4c.          Anomaly   0.86c.  

Yes, I have to say I'm quite surprised at how high the CET figure currently is - feels like a different world here in Kent with frost after frost and low daytime maxima!

Aye, well Kent isn't in balmy central England - where we see more flying unicorns than we do cold days .....

As usual in cold weather the provisional CET is way way too high. So expect a large downward adjustment at the end of the month.

Up to and including today I calculate the CET to be at 4.5C.

It is very true that the coldest CET station is in the south east and the warmest in the north west this month.

Stonyhurst has a mean of 5.1C including a minimum of 3.2C which is way above the other two stations.

Pershore has a mean of 4.5C and Rothamsted has a mean of 4.0C. This is still quite a bit above what we have seen further south-east.

As to where we finish up this month well I currently estimate a final figure for the CET of 4.98C. This assumes a significant warm up in the final 5 days of the month which is by no means certain at this point. As at the 26th I currently estimate the CET will be back at the 4.5C it is currently at. So somewhere between 4.5C and 5C is likely to be where we finish.

Yes was thinking its higher than the daily max/min temps implied. It's been a very uncertain month to estimate as to where HP would come to sit in relation to the Uk. 

As you say GW, you estimate 4.98, I feel it could be quite a bit lower.  But I'm in awe of your track record with these third week predictions so I will keep schtum.

As you say GW, you estimate 4.98, I feel it could be quite a bit lower.  But I'm in awe of your track record with these third week predictions so I will keep schtum.

To be clear it is not a personal prediction just an estimate of the likely outcome based on what the models are currently showing. If the models change significantly then so will the predicted outcome.

Met Office Hadley  5.2c. anomaly 1.7c Same for the last 3 days.

Metcheck               4.5c.         Anomaly        0.37c.

Netweather            4.96c.       Anomaly        0.77c.

Peasedown St John        5.3c.     Anomaly     -0.8c. 

Yes, I have to say I'm quite surprised at how high the CET figure currently is - feels like a different world here in Kent with frost after frost and low daytime maxima!

Same here in my part of Surrey too, cold, cold! 😀

Met office Hadley

5.2 to the 19th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month is 5.3c on the 11th

 

To be clear it is not a personal prediction just an estimate of the likely outcome based on what the models are currently showing. If the models change significantly then so will the predicted outcome.

If the block to our E/SE keeps grimly clinging on, I'd imagine your entry for the month could be bang on the button.

Now that the colder air is inching further N and W, the Pershore & Stoneyhurst figures should be much lower (here in NW England, the past several days have seen leaden skies, drizzle and temps never deviating from between 7c and 10c regardless of the time of day. Much clearer today and temps forecast to got to around zero overnight for the next few days at least.

Day 4 of Met Office Hadley at 5.2 Anomaly 1.7c.

Metcheck      4.46c.  Anomaly   0.30c.

Netweather   4.92c.  Anomaly   0.73c.

Peasedown St John     5.1c.     Anomaly  -1.0c.   

Day 4 of Met Office Hadley at 5.2 Anomaly 1.7c.

It should stop to drop off now that Pershore is out of the doldrums

Here are the predictions for January so far. 64 in all. No penalties for predictions up to 23:59 today given the January thread was a little late being opened. 

Great to see several new people taking part this year.

Anyone between 4-5c looks in with a shout depending on the Block/Atlantic.

My own is running at 3.9C.

My 3.5c guess is looking poor. I've started this year as badly as I ended the last one!  

Met Office Hadley          5.1c.           Anomaly         1.6c.     Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                       4.35c.         Anomaly         0.18c.

Netweather                    4.8c.           Anomaly         0.61c.

Peasedown St John     4.9c.           Anomaly      -1.2c.