Bah!  Humbug!   Stupid hot nights  Time to ditch the duvet

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I think memories of Dec 2010 have spoilt people. My expectations based on decades of living in the south are that a typical winter of the better sort has a crisp and frosty spell end-Nov or early Dec; a wet and windy interlude; followed by more serious and prolonged cold in January. That's when I'd expect snow if we are to get any down here (and conversely, if January doesn't shape up, don't put money on February doing so).

So, for the moment, nothing to get excited about either way.

"As the days grow longer, so the cold gets stronger"

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Nice to bye pass winter with spring like temps this week....

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Had to open the windows in the house this morning because it is so mild. What's even more annoying is we've just had an extension built with underfloor heating and it is seriously toasty so we can't even test it out properly.  

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I think memories of Dec 2010 have spoilt people.

 

I think what Dec 10 did was show us just what can be achieved in early winter with the right set-up. It just seemed so easy.

As for my own thoughts, after clinging onto hope that we'd get a colder spell leading up to Xmas, ideally with a UK high migrating northwards to link with a strong polar/Greenland high, I've now accepted this aint going to happen.

I reckon I'm more than halfway through my life now, and every crap winter is another scratched off an increasingly short list. It's a thoroughly depressing thought.

 

 

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I think what Dec 10 did was show us just what can be achieved in early winter with the right set-up. It just seemed so easy.

As for my own thoughts, after clinging onto hope that we'd get a colder spell leading up to Xmas, ideally with a UK high migrating northwards to link with a strong polar/Greenland high, I've now accepted this aint going to happen.

I reckon I'm more than halfway through my life now, and every crap winter is another scratched off an increasingly short list. It's a thoroughly depressing thought.

 

 

This. 👍🏻

I think memories of Dec 2010 have spoilt people. My expectations based on decades of living in the south are that a typical winter of the better sort has a crisp and frosty spell end-Nov or early Dec; a wet and windy interlude; followed by more serious and prolonged cold in January. That's when I'd expect snow if we are to get any down here (and conversely, if January doesn't shape up, don't put money on February doing so).

So, for the moment, nothing to get excited about either way.

"As the days grow longer, so the cold gets stronger"

 

Certainly when I was growing up December (apart from 81) was generally mild with cold and snow coming later on, sadly the modern era is characterised by the mild December pattern going on into Jan/Feb hence the often quoted 6/7 week shelf life of a zonal pattern.

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I always had a hunch that we could end up having our "winter" in November and unless I'm proved wrong over time, it is now starting to look as this could well end up being the case, which would mean that we have now already had our "winter" for this season.

That doesn't surprise me in any way because there has been so many occasions in the past where we have had a spell of summer-like weather during the spring, only to then end up with a poor summer in that year. 2012 was the best recent example of that as that was the year when temperatures reached 23 degrees centigrade in March, only for that to be followed by all the rain and flooding during the actual summer.

What we have been experiencing so far is just the exact opposite of that scenario (though thankfully, without all the wet weather which had during that particular summer).

 

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I always had a hunch that we would end up having our "winter" in November and unless I'm proved wrong over time, it is now starting to look as this is the case and that we have now already had our "winter" for this season. That doesn't surprise me in any way because there has been so many occasions in the past where we have had a spell of summer-like weather during the spring, only to then end up with a poor summer in that year (2012 was the best recent example of that as that was the year when temperatures reached 23 degrees centigrade in March, only for that to be followed by all the rain and flooding during the actual summer) and so, what we have been experiencing so far is just the exact opposite of that scenario.

Yes late November 1988 was pretty cool, for most that would be the coldest it got 

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Well I've seen enough of the output to realise we can write off the first half of winter for anything sustained in terms of cold, the deep cold over the eastern seaboard will only act to beef up cyclogensis and with a rejuvenated PV the writing is on the wall for the first half of the season. Of course that doesn't rule out a cold snap here and there but for anything else let's see what mid January onwards brings.

Wow, 7 days into the start of winter and we already have 4 pages in this thread

That said, I feel the frustration of many posters- especially with the failed MetO extended outlook and Glosea balls up adding to a milder current spell. You do have to ask however just what does it really take to give us some proper winter weather? Narrow misses, close but no cigar and jam tomorrow runs abound, and even when we finally latch onto something its downgrades all the way. Powderpuff Northerlies, Warm Easterlies,,,, even last winter season without a single frost IMBY. Recent years have seen it all- apart from snow lol 

Such is life in our blessed isle.

I always had a hunch that we would end up having our "winter" in November and unless I'm proved wrong over time, it is now starting to look as this is the case and that we have now already had our "winter" for this season. That doesn't surprise me in any way because there has been so many occasions in the past where we have had a spell of summer-like weather during the spring, only to then end up with a poor summer in that year (2012 was the best recent example of that as that was the year when temperatures reached 23 degrees centigrade in March, only for that to be followed by all the rain and flooding during the actual summer) and so, what we have been experiencing so far is just the exact opposite of that scenario.

Well of course you have just as much chance of being right as you do of being wrong so worth a punt I guess (although, with respect your methodology sounds a bit suspect to me), but to make such a statement on the 7th day of meterological winter really does beggar belief....

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Certainly when I was growing up December (apart from 81) was generally mild with cold and snow coming later on, sadly the modern era is characterised by the mild December pattern going on into Jan/Feb hence the often quoted 6/7 week shelf life of a zonal pattern.

Xmas & New Year 2012/13 was a mostly mild and very unsettled period, which commened in mid-December after a coldish spell early that month. But on that occasion if lasted no longer than after the end of the first week of January 2013.

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Well I've seen enough of the output to realise we can write off the first half of winter for anything sustained in terms of cold, the deep cold over the eastern seaboard will only act to beef up cyclogensis and with a rejuvenated PV the writing is on the wall for the first half of the season. Of course that doesn't rule out a cold snap here and there but for anything else let's see what mid January onwards brings.

So what you're saying is, the winter can be written off until at least January 16 when the mid-range models only extend out to December 23, as of today. Let's also remember that anything after 7 days is really quite unreliable, so that narrows the date down to December 14 for a reliable outlook. I'm sorry but I don't understand your logic.

Why is it, whenever we get a spell of mild weather in early December, do all the histrionics come out saying how winter is over and how snow will never happen again in this country?

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That eerie pinky red glow outside again now. Seems to be happening frequently this year for some reason. It is a glow that rather than coming from the sky, seems to be emitting from the earth itself.

Edit. Very striking now. The pinky redness is getting into the house. Even looking at my hands typing this, they are glowing.

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Xmas & New Year 2012/13 was a mostly mild and very unsettled period, which commened in mid-December after a coldish spell early that month. But on that occasion if lasted no longer than after the end of the first week of January 2013.

Correct but a SSW (I can't recall if it was a 'full' SSW) occurred and this allowed for the jet to go South. Nothing of the sort is on the horizon at present and the blues are becoming purple to the NW..

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So what you're saying is, the winter can be written off until at least January 16 when the mid-range models run only extend out to December 23, as of today. Let's also remember that anything after 7 days is really quite unreliable, so that narrows the date down to December 14 for a reliable outlook. I don't understand your logic.

Why is it, whenever we get a spell of mild weather in early December, do all the histrionics come out saying how winter is over and how snow will never happen again?

The reason is because of the longevity of zonality in the modern era, I did some research a few years ago which showed that a mild December USUALLY led to a mild Jan and Feb in the modern era - whereas if we could guarantee that there would be a pattern change from what we have now to something colder later on, people wouldn't be moaning so much. It's just that everyone has recent years at the backs of their minds, quite justifiably IMO.

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This thread is properly funny, has anyone said pattern reset yet or do we now prefer a SSW ?

 

So what you're saying is, the winter can be written off until at least January 16 when the mid-range models only extend out to December 23, as of today. Let's also remember that anything after 7 days is really quite unreliable, so that narrows the date down to December 14 for a reliable outlook. I'm sorry but I don't understand your logic.

Why is it, whenever we get a spell of mild weather in early December, do all the histrionics come out saying how winter is over and how snow will never happen again in this country?

What I'm saying is the longer term signals are not conducive for cold and these don't just turn at the flick of a switch, we will need some sort of Stratospheric help here and as it stands there's none forecasts this month. This isn't some wrist slitting winters over posts but a analysis  of where we are at this moment in time, sure things can change rapidly such as a SSW event but none are forecasts within the foreseeable so mid January is fair punt for changes aloft.

What I'm saying is the longer term signals are not conducive for cold and these don't just turn at the flick of a switch, we will need some sort of Stratospheric help here and as it stands there's none forecasts this month. This isn't some wrist slitting winters over posts but a analysis  of where we are at this moment in time, sure things can change rapidly such as a SSW event but none are forecasts within the foreseeable so mid January is fair punt for changes aloft.

Ive a feeling you are going to be proven correct,sc, the signal`s do not look good for cold in the short to medium term and imo the first two weeks of January will determine the rest of the winter.December is looking like being mild and dry and probably warmer than November.