Have released GWV Winter 16/17 Forecast

Gong for a slightly colder than average Winter and dry.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2016-17-forecast-uk.php

 

Good luck Gav, a fair call in what appears to be a difficult winter to forecast.

Last winter opened with snow on the ground. This winter has opened to mild depressing gunk. Min of 7.2C max of 10.0C, windy and grey. Just awful and the continuation of an extremely boring and uninteresting spell that set in on Saturday. A high to the west with mild Atlantic muck spewing over the top of it is one of the worst set-ups. Need it to move northwards.

If only the rest of the month could be the total opposite of last year. I am at the end of my tether with the ridiculous amount of this type of utter crap we’ve had to endure in winter over the past 6 years. In particular, another poor festive period with barely a frost would be intolerable.

I hear you. Since the legendary Dec 2010 spell we've had just one proper fall of snow here, in January 2013. I can't remember such a snowless period in my life - and the past 3 winters here have had the two wettest and mildest winters in recorded history. Now I look at the models this morn and I see charts that remind me of last December. Now, this winter is just beginning but I'm not getting my expectations up to say the least.

 

I hear you. Since the legendary Dec 2010 spell we've had just one proper fall of snow here, in January 2013. I can't remember such a snowless period in my life - and the past 3 winters here have had the two wettest and mildest winters in recorded history. Now I look at the models this morn and I see charts that remind me of last December. Now, this winter is just beginning but I'm not getting my expectations up to say the least.

Wow that's bad. Whilst it's hardly been snowmageddon here since 2013 we've had a few measurable snow falls since then. But I would ideally have liked more. This is a very good place for frost round here & whilst for a low lying area I do "alright" for snow considering I am only 93m above sea level I also tend to just about get into the marginal snow events like 2 weeks ago & March this year when we had about 4 inches, we also had a lighter covering in late April! But I don't do as amazing as places not far away in my borough of Oldham above 200m. Obviously because I am about 100m lower! "orographic lifting" being the main reason as higher ground squeezes out more precipitation, I tend to get mostly light to moderate coverings a lot of the time (I class snow depth below 6 inches as not heavy) but I suppose it's better than nothing. Heavy snow depth would be welcome like Jan 2013 style or early & late 2010 but I can't see myself moving anytime soon.

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I hear you. Since the legendary Dec 2010 spell we've had just one proper fall of snow here, in January 2013. I can't remember such a snowless period in my life - and the past 3 winters here have had the two wettest and mildest winters in recorded history. Now I look at the models this morn and I see charts that remind me of last December. Now, this winter is just beginning but I'm not getting my expectations up to say the least.

Well that would be the same here though only because I'm in the outskirts of town. Most of the city did poorly from the Jan 2013 fall and hasn't had anything like a decent fall since Dec 2010. Worse than the exceptional snowless period of the late 80s and early 90s when there were decent falls in Feb 1991, Jan 1993, Feb 1993, Nov 1993 and Dec 1993 - all better than anything in the last 6 years.

No sign of this ridiculous snow drought being brought to an end. Absolutely dismal and depressing start to winter - worse than last year with endless mild grey nothingness. Today was supposed to be an improvement but after 20 mins sun earlier - the only sun since Tuesday - the soul destroying drab overcast has returned. Nothing remotely cold with a min of 3.4C and the past 8 days have managed one solitary transitory frost of -0.5C.

At least in the 90s the mild winters were dry and bright and, with the foehn effect common, it often felt springlike. What we get now is ghastly - more like an extension of autumn with the mildness always most pronounced during the night and daytime temperatures barely any higher. Some of the wettest winter weather in decades has occurred in the past few years: Dec 2012,winter 2013/14 and Jan 2016.

Wouldn't mind betting that the frost total of 95.4 hours in November is better than any of the three winter months can muster.

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Just having a look on the other side and what is going on today just emphasises why I rarely ever bother looking at the model threads. It's December 3, the third day of 90 in the entire meteorological winter - still 87 days to go, and the "winter's over" posts start leaking out. I don't know what the hell these people are on sometimes. Even if "the rest of winter " is mild, considering I had snow in this area at the end of April this year, you'd think they would have learned by now.

Or is it just because December 2010 has skewed people's perceptions that much?

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Given the recent output, I reckon a winter moaning thread is called for!

 

I agree - after reading some of the bilge posted on the MO thread, the Mods must be tearing their hair out.

The model output seems to be showing the mild spell, but then the 850's heading downwards after a handful of days - with a good number of ens members hitting -5, a couple -10. Worth remembering that the NWP usually pick up a cold spell by firstly showing unremarkable colder runs, which then gain momentum in both number and temp as runs progress.

 

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I am going to roll the dice here and go for February being the month with most of the wintry action.

December and March in recent years have returned notable -ve temperature anomalies with January less so but even this was larger than any February -ve anomaly since 1991. I feel the statistical elastic band is stretched on this and must be close to snapping. 

A really cold February must be around the corner.

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I am going to roll the dice here and go for February being the month with most of the wintry action.

December and March in recent years have returned notable -ve temperature anomalies with January less so but even this was larger than any February -ve anomaly since 1991. I feel the statistical elastic band is stretched on this and must be close to snapping. 

A really cold February must be around the corner.

There's a certain logic to that.  A back loaded winter.

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This start to this winter has been so awful it's making me see positives in December 2015. Yet another pile of stagnant cloud has arrived to ruin what was meant to be a sunny day. It's beyond  joke. Cloud cleared overnight only for the muck to return by dawn, just preventing a frost and extending this rank period of gloom.

Worst start to winter since 2002, I would say, with barely half an hour sun in five days and the odd bit of drizzle the only thing that could constitute weather. Yet another period of protracted gloom -a 2016 speciality - and two useless write-off weekends on the trot.

Can't wait to see the back of this garbage high. Would far rather have mild zonal south westerlies than this tiresome, depressing tripe but it really is hard to find anything to like about winter these days. It has become a write-off season and nothing I can see to look forward to at the moment. 

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Well you are going to get the mild southwesterlies! I think I'll comment on whether this winter is garbage in three months time.

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Following on from Japan's first November snowfall in over 50 years, the latest entry in the "places that have snow that usually don't" category is Hawaii:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38199730 

"Parts of the US state of Hawaii have received a winter weather warning, with up to three feet (90cm) of snow over the past few days.
Weather experts say that it is not unusual for snow to fall in tropical Hawaii, but rarely has it fallen so heavily at such low altitudes."

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Matt Hugo? Yes he's been an embarrassment of late, unbelievable some call themselves professionals.

Unlike Brian of course!

The one and only WM. I rate Brian's forecasts highly keeps things simple and discards the myriads of new fads which appear each year with the end result more than likely closer to the mark than many of the others out there.

I am going to roll the dice here and go for February being the month with most of the wintry action.

December and March in recent years have returned notable -ve temperature anomalies with January less so but even this was larger than any February -ve anomaly since 1991. I feel the statistical elastic band is stretched on this and must be close to snapping. 

A really cold February must be around the corner.

I've been thinking along those same lines myself Kev. I think all talk of a front loaded winter looks to be on shaky ground even at this early stage of winter, though if slightly below average temps and a mid latitude high is as good as it gets then I suppose it could indeed be correct. 😄

Well it's worth a punt I suppose.

I'm torn in two for this winter. I don't think average is on the cards, but I can't make my mind up which way it'll go. On the one hand I see a very mild 87/88 88/89 type winter leaving most of us reaching for the noose. The other side obviously is something much more akin to the season and memorable for a few. If the latter is to show its hand it'll probably be starting or on the cards around the 19th of Dec. The other one will see us chasing our tails before we realise time has run out.

Nothing scientific, just a few thoughts on how I see it going.

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One thing that's changed since this thread started is that the "blob" of anomalously high temps in the N Pacific, whose appearance coincided with our recent lousy winters, has suddenly become a blob of anomalously low temps.

Speaking as someone who's been enjoying a week of the coldest temps experienced here for 6 years, and who's looking out at yet another white garden, with the hedges covered in frost and the old outside khazi frozen solid, I would be inclined to suggest that we have a chance of a decently cold winter thanks to that change on the other side of the world. We've at least started with one in the West Country.

It's been pointed out to me on other threads that these temps are nothing to celebrate, with no joy in these frosts owing to the lack of snow, but I think that may be down to most people living in a town. Unless something falls from the sky, there really isn't too much difference in what you see or how you feel from day-to-day in an urban environment, regardless of the air temperature. But rurally it makes a huge difference. 

Sorry about the anti-moan.

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It's been pointed out to me on other threads that these temps are nothing to celebrate, with no joy in these frosts owing to the lack of snow, but I think that may be down to most people living in a town. Unless something falls from the sky, there really isn't too much difference in what you see or how you feel from day-to-day in an urban environment, regardless of the air temperature. But rurally it makes a huge difference.

While frosts are good (and I've enjoyed all 2 of them here so far), it's really not what I crave - I want snow, I want ice days, iclcles and the rest. I know I'm not alone on this and the key word there is "snow". Down here that implies 850s of -10C or below and they've been as rare as hen's teeth recently. Once you've got snow and an easterly in place you can get away with much higher 850s, but that initial cold shot has to be there for the rest to work!

As I've said before, in the last 100 years there's never been such a long wait for a proper deep cold midwinter easterly. This was the last one we had - in the dying days of 1996.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1996/Rrea00119961231.gif

Nothing other than easterlies will do here to give a prolonged cold and snowy spell. I would dearly love to see one again but as in my "death of the midwinter easterly" thread earlier this year it really does seem almost impossible to get all the blocks to fall into place these days.

 

 

 

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(Makes mental note never to move to Leysdown-on-Sea.)

I do understand, having spent the first half of my life in towns in the south east and on the south coast (apart from 1981-2, when I went to work in a small rural town in W Germany - how inspired was that?)

And I'm probably just feeling pleased with myself at the moment because I extended the veg patch by digging over a piece of the lawn this time last week, in the hope that the rarely forecast frosts would break up the soil for the spring. The new bed froze that night and is still frozen right now, beyond anything I could have hoped for.

I think the two big problems you have are firstly, as you say, you need that easterly set-up down there, which meant that the once-in-a-century event of Dec 2010 was no big deal for you; and secondly I recall a post of yours where you described an easterly of the 1980s, when you were a kid, that delivered everything you described, including the joy of being genuinely cut off. The trouble is, being that age you don't appreciate at the time the good fortune of everything falling into place, just assuming that you'll have more chances to relish it in the future.

In Dec 2010 I was living a few miles south of Taunton, 100m asl at the foot of the Blackdowns. The girlfriend had moved out, taking the car with her (not that I've learnt to drive in any case), so the dog and I were properly cut off, the way you remembered from that 1980s winter. The lanes were impassable, owing either to drifts or the farmer having turned them into ice rinks by attempting to clear them. By Christmas Eve it was clear that said girlfriend wasn't going to be turning up with any Christmas cheer, so the dog and I set out on foot for a mile and a half across fields literally knee-deep in snow to Blagdon Hill Post Office for something to eat the next day. 

As a year earlier I'd stupidly transferred the house to joint ownership, I'd had to sell it to give the girlfriend half the money, and I knew that in a few weeks I'd be moving out to my current gaff, a miserable 32m asl. So I knew then, as I followed the dog back through the trees creaking with snow, that this was epic, this was as good as it could ever get, this was the winter to savour. I remember spending half of Christmas Day just yelling with joy at the dog as she attempted to keep up with me sledging down the hill behind that house again and again.

And this was another illustration of the advantages of living in the sticks, because by Christmas this forum was dominated by the breakdown and winter being over (which it was), while out there on Christmas morning I was still able to open my curtains to this (note: genuine icicles!):

I think this is why I tend to be grateful and optimistic about any sort of cold on offer in winter now. Not only did December 2010 give me everything I could ever hope for, but a combination of circumstances meant I appreciated it to the full at the time. Anything else in subsequent years is just icing on the, er, icing. The moral is, if you live somewhere cold is rare, but some sort of cold does happen while you're an adult, do try and appreciate it and experience it at the time rather than looking for ways in which it's not the real thing or how it's going to end.

Easier said than done though.

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Hi Some faraway Beach, 

Yes I remember 2010 well. I live just north of Guildford in Surrey and Dec 2010 was epic. It had everything you could wish for, lots of snow, very cold temps and longevity. I knew that this spell of weather should be enjoyed because I knew once finished, I may never see something like this again as it was a once in a century event especially after inter 2009/2010. 

I'm sure we will see another month like this again sometime in the next 20 or 30 years but events like this will get rarer and rarer as the UK climate warms and if the arctic continues to warm at its current rate where the ice sheet disappears during summer, the chances of seeing temps of below -25C in this country could be a thing of the past for a very long time which is a big shame. 

December 2010 was truly epic and it might be the last truly severe spell we see in the UK for a very long time. Hopefully not though of course!

 

(Makes mental note never to move to Leysdown-on-Sea.)

If we ever get back to the climate we had up to 1997, it's a great place to be - when conditions are right it's one of the snowiest parts of the country.

And I'm probably just feeling pleased with myself at the moment because I extended the veg patch by digging over a piece of the lawn this time last week, in the hope that the rarely forecast frosts would break up the soil for the spring. The new bed froze that night and is still frozen right now, beyond anything I could have hoped for.

Blimey, I was outside earlier mowing the lawn. Hopefully I won't be mowing it in January!

I think the two big problems you have are firstly, as you say, you need that easterly set-up down there, which meant that the once-in-a-century event of Dec 2010 was no big deal for you; and secondly I recall a post of yours where you described an easterly of the 1980s, when you were a kid, that delivered everything you described, including the joy of being genuinely cut off. The trouble is, being that age you don't appreciate at the time the good fortune of everything falling into place, just assuming that you'll have more chances to relish it in the future.

Yup, that 1987 spell (with being cut off, an extra week off school, bread and milk delivered by Chinook etc) was truly amazing. I savour it to this day and it's what led to the weather being one of my hobbies. I still remember my gran telling me that some years it didn't even snow at all... unbelievable to my 7-year-old self, but she was of course spot on.

I think this is why I tend to be grateful and optimistic about any sort of cold on offer in winter now. Not only did December 2010 give me everything I could ever hope for, but a combination of circumstances meant I appreciated it to the full at the time.

Indeed, it's always a good idea to make the best of what you have available - for you never know when the next time will come. (I recall Justin W making a similar point about the 2005 snowy spell here - with Philip Eden saying to him that such spells were going to become rare in future.) In your case despite all that was going on, you have some superb memories - and I daresay you'll remember 2010 for the rest of your days, just as I remember the glory days of the 80s and 90s.

Hopefully one year we'll get a countrywide spell which we'll all remember!

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Always wise to keep on cutting the lawn. That way, if it does snow, you don't suffer from blades of grass poking through and spoiling the effect. Especially important if all you get is the standard half an inch and you want to pretend it's a snowbound landscape you're viewing.

I do think people make too big an issue of mowing the lawn past October, as though it's something unusual or concerning. Right from when I first moved down here 30 years ago, every holder of livestock I've known who wintered their animals outdoors expected and counted on a fresh growth of grass in November, just when you think it's finished. It's an oddity, but I've had paddocks turned into lakes of mud by horses or cattle in the autumn, yet by early December there's been a fresh cover of fine green grass. It's not thick blades like the summer grass, but it definitely appears. And this has been my experience for decades.

It's not really something commercial farmers might notice, as it makes more sense to winter livestock indoors and feed them the grass crop from their fields as silage, without letting them churn it up as pasture and thereby waste it.

I don't know. Maybe the effect is more pronounced now, or maybe we all just notice an untidy lawn as we get older, whereas when we're younger it's either someone else's responsibility or we've got better things to do than worry about the state of the garden.

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