John hammond

Some 'up north' living a charmed life. But continental chill in SE Eng will ooze to most of UK by weekend. Possibly coldest spell of winter

I don't class 48+ hours of drizzle as 'charmed'

I don't class 48+ hours of drizzle as 'charmed'

That's a poor forecast by Accuweather, even at this stage. Last winter's forecast was very poor as well. I assume they use the same techniques as they use to produce their North American forecasts?

That's a poor forecast by Accuweather, even at this stage. Last winter's forecast was very poor as well. I assume they use the same techniques as they use to produce their North American forecasts?

 

*************Whether Idle's Winter forecast************

Issued 21st December 2016.  Valid until 23rd March 2017.

Headline - Varied.  Mild start Colder Finish.  Dry in England. Stormy at times, especially so in Scotland.

Methodolgy: SSTs, Ice cover, Experience and Gut Feeling.

SSTs: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

The SST anomaly shows that the North Atlantic GIN sea area and Arctic Ocean are much warmer than the LTA.  Between 1 and 7c warmer.  This means northerlies from the Arctic will lack their usual cold bite.

An area of ocean off Newfoundland ... anomalies on the left and SST actual on the right>

                                                                              

-

The water to the north is much colder, and the water to the south much warmer than usual - the thermal gradient is extreme and likely to produce storm after storm this winter which will ride east towards Europe on the jet.  The water is 20c different temperature in the space of 70 miles.  Astonishing.

Ice:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Shows the current 11.8million km, about 1.3million km 2 less than the LTA for 20 December, and the least sea Ice recorded at this time (its been the same all autumn) since measurements began. We are about 3 weeks "behind "the curve.  This will blunt the depth of any cold that arrives from the North.

  Gut feeling indicates to me the Ice and SST situation will be influential early on (20 Dec-20 Jan).

***********************************************************************************************

Dates provided are for guidance only 😉.....

Broad scenario -21 Dec - 20 January - generally zonal.  Mild the cool then mild as pM air alternates with tM air.  Windier and wetter towards NW.  More settled and drier towards SE.  Mid latitude high will at times deflect storm systems to the N and W of the UK, at other times the storms will affect Scotland.  Excellent month for generation of wind power in N and W of UK.  Possibly exceptionally dry in SE. Lowland snow fleeting and non-disruptive, some frost and fog in the south.

21 January - 24 January  brief easterly type cold, frosty with wintry showers on prone coasts.   Storminess resumes  by around January 26th, possible transitional snowfall.

27 January - 5 February - Stormy, unsettled.  (This time also affecting areas further S). By turn of the month, finally pressure drops over southern and eastern Europe.  Cooler, unsettled, wetter for south.  Windy, wintry showers on northern Hills. Wind between WSW and NW.

7 February - 14 February - Drier and colder period.  Frost.  Isolated snow flurries. Easterly winds with Anticyclonic conditions also.

15-23 February- More mobile and westerly.  Average temperature and rainfall.

23 February - March 12.  COLDEST period of the winter.  Winds swinging NW then N then NE then E with northern blocking. Snow in upland areas and possibly more generally in N and E.

March 13-23.  Anticyclonic, dry, pleasantly mild at times in S and E.

Notes :I expect the sea ice and temperature anomalies will be much closer to LTAs by late winter, resulting in our best shot at snow in the latter third of winter (ie 20 Feb - 23 March). 

The big pattern change that will allow the cooler 2nd half will be the lowering of pressure over eastern Europe as potent storm systems penetrate from west to east. NB potentially very wet and windy in NW from 21 Dec- mid February.

****************************************************************************************************

Whether Idle 21st December 2016.

 

Well, one month in and two to go.

I'm extremely satisfied with the forecast thus far, its probably the most accurate one I've seen on the net!

Two months to go but as you will see the coldest weather is set for the heart of the astronomical winter, coming in 2 bursts.  A similar episode to the current cold spell 2nd week of February, followed by the big one from around February 23rd give or take a couple of days.

With full support of the CFS

WI

There will be surprises for many this winter, definitely not a wet and mild winter like last year.

Ian F on twitter last night

Let's see what unfolds...maybe the last cold phase of winter, if latest longer-range models are to be trusted (!)

Ian F

Cold conditions this weekend give way to less cold/ultimately milder weather through next week; a 60% chance more mobile set-up likely for a while by end next week, but more blocked conditions then slightly favoured to see-out the rest of Feb more blocked conditions then slightly favored to see out the rest of Feb with temperatures overall perhaps slightly below avg & generally quieter/drier conditions, suggest UKMO. By late Feb a strong signal for stratospheric warming, but no sign in GloSea that it will influence troposphere & thus of little value to provide predictions on any (if any) effect on UK weather. Early March looking milder/wetter, but tentative signal

That's a poor forecast by Accuweather, even at this stage. Last winter's forecast was very poor as well. I assume they use the same techniques as they use to produce their North American forecasts?

 

And the more I look at it, the worse it gets!

 

And the more I look at it, the worse it gets!

I see the MWI is on 30, which (if I'm thinking right) is really poor. I can believe it. There's been a minimal number of air frosts and no settling snow (with hardly any actually falling snow)

Whereabouts does it rank in the series?

 

 

I see the MWI is on 30, which (if I'm thinking right) is really poor. I can believe it. There's been a minimal number of air frosts and no settling snow (with hardly any actually falling snow)

Whereabouts does it rank in the series?

 

Its 34 now.

Since 1973

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

2016-17: 34

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

 

Its 34 now.

Since 1973

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

2016-17: 34

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

 

I'm gobsmacked it's not amongst the bottom few - it certainly feels as poor as any other winter in my 44 years.

 

And the more I look at it, the worse it gets!

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/uk-winter-forecast-damaging-windstorms-to-lash-hard-hit-areas-northern-england/60531022

If you read the UK part of that forecast

"AccuWeather forecasters are calling for 15-18 named storms between October 2016 and April 2017; however, the most active period will occur from December to February."

What are we up to now? Still C, Doris was named by the media and even if you take into account a couple of lows that probably should have been named, I can't see how we are going to get up to O to S, in the storm naming system. In any case, they emphasised the winter period as being the most active and we are half way through February more or less.

Surely a Spring 2017 Prospects & Predictions Thread will be open soon, could well be a mild start if the end of Feb & the Predicted Feb CET is to go by with previous high Feb CETs and leading into Spring

..Bring it on I say 

My pressure readings for each day at 18:00 for the winter so far. If there's one word you can use to describe it, it's "anticyclonic."

Manchester Winter Index

Since 1973

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

2016-17: 41

Yet another Winter without any snowcover here!

From 1993 to 2013, every Winter had at least some snowcover here, but remarkably, 3 out of the last 4 Winters have seen no snowcover during the Winter months here, these being the Winters of 2014, 2016 and 2017.   However, I have to admit that we were very spoilt from 2010 to 2013, as our total accumulated snow from those four Winters amounted to 53 inches !