Well, having lurked in the shadows for many years and carefully observed all that's gone on, I've decided this year to put my forecasting methodology to the test in the public arena. It's quite a brave forecast too - and hence the reason to test it out publicly. 
If it does verify, then I'll be more than happy to share my methodology - but if it doesn't then so be it, as it would all be rather meaningless... One thing I will say though is I take no notice whatsoever of the models... It constantly amazes me how we all know they are at times very unreliable and yet so many people get hung up on what they are forecasting - or seem to find difficulty in accepting that patterns can and do change!
So here goes. Thanks to Gavin P and K Bradshaw for some of the thinking that's gone in to it.
The key feature of the weather this winter will be the prominence of blocking, mainly centred around or near to the British Isles. This will on occasion link with extended ridging across Scandinavia and Greenland to enable particularly wintry conditions to develop and prevail. This will come as a shock after the run of milder winters experienced in the UK recently. Overall, conditions may exceed those experienced in December 2010, with the main difference being a later onset of them and a much more extended period of below average temperatures.
Month by month this is the forecast;
December
The start to the winter will begin on a benign note with high pressure centred over and to the East of the UK. Clear skies will allow frost to form in places, although cloud could prevent temperatures from dropping at times in some areas. Freezing fog could also become an issue for some.
As we move toward the middle of the month, high pressure will start to slowly sink towards the south with pressure also possibly rising in the Azores. This may bring the chance of transient snow to some areas at first, particularly over higher ground. This change heralds a milder interlude whereby more unsettled conditions will feed into the UK from the West / North West. During this period wetter conditions will generally prevail across the UK, except maybe the far south east corner.
Moving into the final third of the month and high pressure will again start to build over the UK. This will see the return of frosty and at times foggy conditions in places, although cloud may again keep temperatures up elsewhere. The timing of this is a little unclear but around the festive period / leading up to the end of the year, high pressure will turn retrograde and move out towards the Atlantic. This will allow cold air to feed in from the North East and with it the first significant snowfall event of the season.
January
The New Year begins with frosty conditions, with a covering of snow on the ground in many places. During the first week of the month, low pressure systems located to the south of the UK will interact with the high pressure now centred to our North West. This could lead to some significant disruption due to heavy falling snow, particularly in the South West, Western areas and the south of the country. Even further north, accumulations could be significant although the far north should escape the brunt of the snowfall.
As we move towards the middle of the month it will remain cold with further snowy interludes as conditions set up more of an easterly flow bringing snow showers to eastern counties and very cold nights.
At some point, probably approximately around mid-month, there will be an easing of the cold conditions as the high pressure stats to sink south again allowing a more westerly influence to develop. Quite how mild it will become is unclear, although there is also the possibility that this will only lead to a slight improvement in temperatures.
The respite will be relatively short lived as high pressure again reasserts itself over the UK, probably centred more to the north this time and linking with high pressure over Greenland. It is possible that at this time we will see further extensive snowfall for many areas of the UK - and that some of it could be severely disruptive.
The month ends on a cold note with clear and frosty conditions across much of the country. By this stage some areas may have seen lying snow for a number of weeks.
February
With a cold and crisp start to month, high pressure will continue to remain close the British Isles initially. As the month progresses this will again become more centred to our West and possibly lead to the coldest period of the winter. An easterly flow will become established drawing air from Siberia across a cold Europe into Eastern England. Scotland should escape much of the most extreme conditions, particularly the far north. However some particularly cold nights will be experienced by many, with further snow showers and bitterly cold winds.
During this month there will be the potential for further snow at times as low pressure interacts with the cold air over the UK and again, some of this snow could prove to be disruptive. The cumulative effect of snow and ongoing freezing temperatures could see significant accumulations in places.
As we head into the final third of the month and with high pressure initially holding on to cold frosty conditions, it will begin to sink south eastwards. Along with the strengthening sun, this will bring in a milder feel from the south. Timing of this is uncertain - but either towards the final third of February or possibly as late as early March - temperatures will improve considerably with very mild conditions prevailing from southerly winds.
Edited by user
30 November 2016 21:48:52
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Reason: Not specified
Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent