One event that we basically missed out on around here was 22nd/23rd March 2013 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-21910079. It was disappointing to see parts of west Cumbria getting buried, lorries stuck & cars buried! as the link above shows (places that normally get less snow than here) yet all we got here was an inch on the grass and car, didn't even stick on the road. Then someone on TWO mentioned about strong SE winds act as a snow shadow in this area, looking at the radar there was a gaping hole over us for the majority of the event. If the winds were E or NE then we would have been buried. We don't get a snow shadow from those directions, we did well earlier in the Winter from mostly easterly winds with a few snow events so was disappointing to miss out on the late March one.

 

Hi Alan

I'm not that far from you and we got absolutely buried on 22/23 March 2013, roads blocked by the drifting snow - it's was our wintriest spell in about 30 years.

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One event that we basically missed out on around here was 22nd/23rd March 2013 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cumbria-21910079. It was disappointing to see parts of west Cumbria getting buried, lorries stuck & cars buried! as the link above shows (places that normally get less snow than here) yet all we got here was an inch on the grass and car, didn't even stick on the road. Then someone on TWO mentioned about strong SE winds act as a snow shadow in this area, looking at the radar there was a gaping hole over us for the majority of the event. If the winds were E or NE then we would have been buried. We don't get a snow shadow from those directions, we did well earlier in the Winter from mostly easterly winds with a few snow events so was disappointing to miss out on the late March one. 

 

We got lucky. About 15cm level snow, but nice drifting in the strong ESE'ly wind. This was taken near my house; some of the drift formations were great

 

 

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We had our first taste of Winter in Dublin this morning with 3 hours of transitional snow. Didtnt  lodge but it was so nice to see Temperatures took a nose dive fom +7 when I left to go to work to+1 just above freezing, Real good stuff. Roll on December

 

How can the Eurasian continent be above average except Mongolia?!

Re the Jamstec - I love how it is just Mongolia that's blue!

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Interesting snow watch this year, they have just replaced all our street lights with white LED ones.
No more orangey glow over the town.

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Interesting snow watch this year, they have just replaced all our street lights with white LED ones.
No more orangey glow over the town.

I do understand what you mean. That orangey glow was something my mother used to say was a 'sign of snow' even: who needs 850s?

But that was in the 70s.

Joseph Farquharson was a Scottish painter who could have been an anywhere-in-England painter with his orange sun on the snow. His paintings are something to enjoy in winters like last year's. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Farquharson

 

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Interesting snow watch this year, they have just replaced all our street lights with white LED ones.
No more orangey glow over the town.

We had ours done a year or so back...funnily enough they don't seem as good for lampost watching....but that may well be because the first winter to try them out on was 15/16.....

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This SST anomaly map is alarming in many respects though there is at least one piece of good news. The positive anomalies in the Arctic seas are large, and cannot be denied or ignored.  Their cause I will leave you to figure out yourselves. 

One line of thinking could be that the warmth is now so anomalous that the disruptions to the lower atmosphere must be significant, and if this disruption can propagate into the upper atmosphere then, in some parts of the world, (ie NW Europe) a disruption of the PV, and possibly a zonal westerly flow, could be of benefit as cold air (albeit less cold than in ideal scenarios in decades past) could ooze our way as the winter develops.  Here we are in autumn, but the signs are promising in terms of the PV.

My view is that it will be a waiting game, and eventually in December we could see a Scandi-Icelandic High which might form for a week or so and bring a cold snap bringing wet snow to prone locations.

A further positive to be drawn from the map, is that in the seas of warm seas off the Grand Banks there are some negative anomalies, and in areas of colder seas off Newfoundland there are warm anomalies.  Net result - a less steep thermal gradient for cyclogenesis.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

Interesting this year, things are.

 

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I am baffled by the QBO.We currently have record number of consecutive  QBO + months 17 to be precise.One might expect a stronger polar vortex rather than a weaker one.A possible explanation  being advanced is  that the Arctic currently has record breaking + temperature anomalies which would have the effect of reducing the normal temperature gradient thus weakening the jet.

WSI: The European winter now looks colder than originally expected

Dec: Slightly warmer than Normal

Jan: Slightly colder than normal

Feb: Colder than normal

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions 

WSI: The European winter now looks colder than originally expected

Dec: Slightly warmer than Normal

Jan: Slightly colder than normal

Feb: Colder than normal

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-forecast-unusual-early-season-cold-a-sign-of-further-wintry-conditions

 I'm not a big fan of there LRF as they change like the wind.

 

 

I know its one that the Metoffice reviews as part of their forecasting.  So cant be that naff.

It had a bias towards cold that's for sure......ask Gav, last year IIR it had us in blue for the Winter

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This page displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensemble (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days. Aomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. Temporal correlations between hindcasts and observations are used as skill mask for spatial anomalies. Standard deviation to normalize anomalies is the average standard deviation of individual hindcast members. For SSTs, anomalies with respect to 1982-2010 climatology are available here.

This is the description of the CFSv  2 anomalies.I have been looking at the T2m monthly temperature anomalies.

This shows ,over the UK, mild /very mild for E1/normla /mild for E2 and normal for E3.I presume the latest ensembles E3 are the ones to look at?

 

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Nov 2016 to Monday 5 Dec 2016:

This weekend looks fairly quiet and settled across the UK, with high pressure largely in charge of our weather, though breezy in the far north and far south. It will generally be cold, with locally severe frosts across central and northern areas. Into next week, many parts are expected to remain dry, though with some uncertainly as to the extent of cloud cover and thus the risk of overnight freezing fog. Where skies do remain clear, locally severe frosts remain possible. Towards the end of November there are indications that the high pressure may drift to the east, allowing Atlantic depressions to move in from the west, at least for a time, but it will likely remain on the cold side for most places.

Updated at: 1215 on Mon 21 Nov 2016

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Dec 2016 to Tuesday 20 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier conditions to dominate. However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps in to the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will likely average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected.

Updated at: 1215 on Mon 21 Nov 2016

This is the latest METO update covering the roughly the first three weeks of December It is interesting to try and put the synoptics that go with the words

The first week is self explanatory" Towards  the end of November there are indications that the high pressure may drift to the east, allowing Atlantic depressions to move in from the west, at least for a time, but it will likely remain on the cold side for most places.This suggests the milder spell accompanying the depressions fails to shift colder air to the east,/north east.

The following two weeks suggests a similar pattern.The key question is where does anticyclone and cold air sit ?if it is too far east then its stand off time with the westerly flow winning.However the words suggest more of a block to the north east or north restricting milder airc to the south.

Whatever the detail METO are sticking to temperatures on the cold side!A small Hurrah!

 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Saturday 26 Nov 2016 to Monday 5 Dec 2016:

This weekend looks fairly quiet and settled across the UK, with high pressure largely in charge of our weather, though breezy in the far north and far south. It will generally be cold, with locally severe frosts across central and northern areas. Into next week, many parts are expected to remain dry, though with some uncertainly as to the extent of cloud cover and thus the risk of overnight freezing fog. Where skies do remain clear, locally severe frosts remain possible. Towards the end of November there are indications that the high pressure may drift to the east, allowing Atlantic depressions to move in from the west, at least for a time, but it will likely remain on the cold side for most places.

Updated at: 1215 on Mon 21 Nov 2016

UK Outlook for Tuesday 6 Dec 2016 to Tuesday 20 Dec 2016:

There is considerable uncertainty as we look ahead through this period. The most likely outcome is for drier conditions to dominate. However, some milder, windy and unsettled weather is likely at times, and as this bumps in to the cold air, this would bring the risk of some snow. On balance, despite the potential for incursions of milder weather into the south at times, temperatures will likely average out on the cold side, with further frosts expected.

Updated at: 1215 on Mon 21 Nov 2016

This is the latest METO update covering the roughly the first three weeks of December It is interesting to try and put the synoptics that go with the words

The first week is self explanatory" Towards  the end of November there are indications that the high pressure may drift to the east, allowing Atlantic depressions to move in from the west, at least for a time, but it will likely remain on the cold side for most places.This suggests the milder spell accompanying the depressions fails to shift colder air to the east,/north east.

The following two weeks suggests a similar pattern.The key question is where does anticyclone and cold air sit ?if it is too far east then its stand off time with the westerly flow winning.However the words suggest more of a block to the north east or north restricting milder airc to the south.

Whatever the detail METO are sticking to temperatures on the cold side!A small Hurrah!

 

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December outlook

Unsettled start

Trending colder and drier than average

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38072856?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central 

December outlook

Unsettled start

Trending colder and drier than average

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/38072856?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central

The key word is "drier." than average.I have posted elsewhere that I think the most likely cold spell is mid December and marked by frost and fog rather than shed loads of snow.

In H.H Lambs classic book "The English Climate " written in 1964,he identified singularities being periods of weather that appeared more regularly than not. December split into 

Early winter storms  26/11-10/12  Winter return of the westerlies after autumn anticyclonic episodes.

December Continental Anticyclones  17-24 Dec -Before Christmas frosts dryest period of December.

Storms of Mid Winter  26 Dec.-12 Jan 

So December Continental anticyclone is the most likely weather type for  a possible winter cold pell this year.

It is also true to say that rarely is there prolonged prolonged snowy spells in December.Of course there was 2010 but before that only 1981 really had prolonged snow cover. Earlier than that  only December 1961 come to mind with a two week cold cold spell from around Dec 20th.

There are occasions when a cold snowy  spell set in around Christmas and then persists  into a cold January.Into this category comes December 62,December 78  and December 85.

 

It's that time of the year again - where we get to drool as normally warm places get heavy snow (and we don't).

So, to kick things off - hours of heavy snowfall in Tokyo (around 12 degrees below average). Until this morning it was just forecast to be rain at 4C, but it's been upgraded to snow in this morning's run.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/xn76vrqe1#?fcTime=1479945600 

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It's that time of the year again - where we get to drool as normally warm places get heavy snow (and we don't).

So, to kick things off - hours of heavy snowfall in Tokyo (around 12 degrees below average). Until this morning it was just forecast to be rain at 4C, but it's been upgraded to snow in this morning's run.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/xn76vrqe1#?fcTime=1479945600

 

Hopefully we don't see a repeat of what happened frequently in the 2000s; HLB unable to develop so HP ends up ridging SSW out of Russia and Greece/Turkey/N Africa get snow

 

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It is also true to say that rarely is there prolonged prolonged snowy spells in December.Of course there was 2010 but before that only 1981 really had prolonged snow cover. Earlier than that  only December 1961 come to mind with a two week cold cold spell from around Dec 20th. 

 

You're omitting Dec 2009, where a large area of the country got decent lying snow before the 20th, lasting until beyond the 26th. Of course, it depends on one's definition of 'prolonged', but a week+ is very good for the UK.

 

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