theweatheroutlook

llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2016 15:23:51

An opportune moment for a new one - so here's a nice clean sheet......... 


On topic at all times please and refrain from personal niggles.

"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
Quantum
15 January 2016 15:26:25

950hpa temperature for Saturday night.


Height/Temp. 950 hPa EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 00 GMT


I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a secondary feature forming, which could be very interesting. On the face of it that temperature gradient is very impressive, but the boundary is moving into an anticyclone causing frontalosis limiting any upward motion. If a secondary feature does form though then this could be a very major snow event. The air to the east is really really cold, cold enough for snow on a kata feature which is very unusual for the UK. 


 


 

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
warrenb
15 January 2016 15:31:45
And we are off. Going for undercut and 10ft drifts in this run. (May as well, because the way the charts have been going, probably got just as much chances as any).
Tonbridge 45m 
warrenb
15 January 2016 15:35:50
Looking at the initiation chart the thing that scuppers the whole this is the shortwave between Greenland and Iceland.
Tonbridge 45m 
Quantum
15 January 2016 15:43:25

Interestingly the polar vortex is currently as close to the UK as it was during 2010 sitting just to the north of Greenland with a possible secondary vortex over eastern siberia.


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
15 January 2016 15:46:35

Significantly more trough disruption on the 12z.

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Shropshire
15 January 2016 15:49:49

Slightly better angle of approach for the front on Monday.

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Quantum
15 January 2016 15:50:07

Alex is causing warm air to atrophy cyclones from the north.


cyclosis

Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Quantum
15 January 2016 15:52:03

12Z is starting to look like my fax chart! 


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
Brian Gaze
15 January 2016 15:55:33

Excitement at TWO Towers on Monday should this be correct! 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Shropshire
15 January 2016 15:57:10

You look on the very Eastward extent of it there Brian ! 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
nsrobins
15 January 2016 15:58:17
Yes - accepting GFS is as useful as a cat flap in an elephant house just now, if the 12z solution is close then many areas could see quite a bit of snow on Monday and Tuesday.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2016 15:59:54

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes - accepting GFS is as useful as a cat flap in an elephant house just now, if the 12z solution is close then many areas could see quite a bit of snow on Monday and Tuesday.


Quite a bit of snow on Monday, on the GFS 12z, but then a thaw sets in - across central southern England at least.


 

New world order coming.
kmoorman
15 January 2016 16:01:18

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Excitement at TWO Towers on Monday should this be correct! 




 


I'll bank that one. 

Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
warrenb
15 January 2016 16:02:54

Looks like GFS is going the way of Meto with building the high over scandi then placing it over us.


Just a Meto goes the other way.

Tonbridge 45m 
warrenb
15 January 2016 16:05:52

Meto better in the long run though I think.

Tonbridge 45m 
Rob K
15 January 2016 16:05:53
0C isotherm is across western England on Wednesday at 114. On the last run it was already through and in the North Sea!

Big differences continue. The seesaw is back towards snow on this run.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Maunder Minimum
15 January 2016 16:09:13
Is the Alex conundrum resolving in our favour?
New world order coming.
Quantum
15 January 2016 16:10:49

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 

Is the Alex conundrum resolving in our favour?


Personally I think, yes, it is introducing warm northerly winds into the Baffin bay which is deadly to developing cyclones. 


The ARPEGE has even more disruption than the GFS


Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)

Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.

2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)

Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.

2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):

26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.
llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2016 16:12:44

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Excitement at TWO Towers on Monday should this be correct! 



Perhaps nudge 20 miles or so east?

"Life with the Lions"

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