Ooh La La! It was being slammed by Ian Brown earlier as a "minor model". Not sure Meteo France would agree with that analysis – they are a serious government forecasting body. Not really sure why Arpege isn't given more credence on these forums – the UKMO for example are said to rate the French model. 

 

Yep - thought the same myself.   This period of model watching is one on the most fascinating I can remember,  not because we're going to get particularly cold weather (although we might) but because it let's us understand the complexity and challenges faced in forecasting the future when there are soo many variable involved.

It was tricky enough, and then you throw a hurricane into the mix!!   Madness.

interesting chart, but BBC news has just revealed Sunday will reach 7 and 8 in the south west just 24 hours before this?

GEM may be regarded as unreliable, but it is producing a fabulous run.

It's pretty good but turns into another Balkan wonder 

interesting chart, but BBC news has just revealed Sunday will reach 7 and 8 in the south west just 24 hours before this?

Yes I saw the same forecast, but it also said "disruptive snow possible" and stressed the uncertainty.

And I agree with Mr Moorman that this is the best spell of model watching I can remember.

">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011512/gfs-0-186.png?12

Ah, back to reliability.

The Chambers Dictionary

Reliability n. 

Zonality, raging south-westerlies, mild dross.

That would have been based on the 6z runs. Forecasts are changing by the hour

Be interesting to see what the Met12z run shows today. 

 

Yes I saw the same forecast, but it also said "disruptive snow possible" and stressed the uncertainty.

 

And I agree with Mr Moorman that this is the best spell of model watching I can remember.

rob I quite agree- fascinating model output. It has a touch of 70's and 80's Atlantic - Continental battleground feeling- with an ex-hurricane thrown in for good measure :-)

 

Be interesting to see what the Met12z run shows today. 

Here's the UKMO 12z on Wetterzentrale:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

 

Think its a higher res model than the big three?? but dont know its verification stats at all 

How I rank high res models:

WRF NMM

ARPEGE/AROME

DWD/ICON

HIRLAM

EURO4

However keep in mind the NMM uses GFS data, so it could well be that the ARPEGE is my favourite now.

Here are the Arpege 81 to 84 precip type charts:

 

Here's the UKMO 12z on Wetterzentrale:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

 

After a week or more of being the model that holds everything back, it's now quite a lot more progressive than ARPEGE (the new favoured model it appears!) and GEM.  Huge uncertainty still....

Brian on those Arpege charts do the white dots signify anything or is that just the white shading over heavier rain/snow?

They just signify heavier snow. The charts are still in development and I'll be integrating with TWO once the next version of the app is live.

 

They just signify heavier snow. The charts are still in development and I'll be integrating with TWO once the next version of the app is live.

So basically all snow.... 

Edit... except for Planet Thanet. Sorry JB!

Model chaos!  Just when things couldnt get more wayward they do.  Here is a chart which is a possibilty:

Arpege 114:

With A Wetter for the GEM around the same time:'

 

So basically all snow.... 

 

Edit... except for Planet Thanet. Sorry JB!

Grrr! ARPEGE is merd! Down with the ARPEGE! 

PS - If the now flavour of the month ARPEGE handles lengthy high pressure systems well, does that make it the new kid on the block?...

 

 

Grrr! ARPEGE is merd! Down with the ARPEGE! 

PS - If the now flavour of the month ARPEGE handles lengthy high pressure systems well, does that make it the new kid on the block?...

Actually, if you look at the high-res Arpege charts...

There's a load of rain first

but then even Thanet gets a decent wedge of snow on the back edge

 

 

After a week or more of being the model that holds everything back, it's now quite a lot more progressive than ARPEGE (the new favoured model it appears!) and GEM.  Huge uncertainty still....

I always giggle when Meto showing progressive charts illicit ''uncertain'' or ''knifeedge'' or indeed no comment whereas GFS showing progressive charts are normally termed a ''pile of shite'' or ''bin it''

The chart you want to see is always the best one!