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is this a possibilty
is this a possibilty http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/run/2016011512/arpegeeur-0-96.png?12
Possible or not, it is much more desirable than the GFS for the same period.
Absolutely. Just about anything is a possibility. Best model watching spell ever!
Wasn't Arpege the model that nailed the 1987 "hurricane"?
Perhaps nudge 20 miles or so east?
Just what I was thinking - we are colder but drier from this set up but it's not settled yet.
Clearly, as it's been modelled, then it is.
What's interesting is the view that Alex is going to disrupt cyclone development, which may completely alter the pressure patterns to our north in the medium term, so this could be possible.
That Arpege run looks like an absolute snowfest to me. The 0C isotherm gets this far and then is brutally banished from our shores....
Clearly, as it's been modelled, then it is. What's interesting is the view that Alex is going to disrupt cyclone development, which may completely alter the pressure patterns to our north in the medium term, so this could be possible.
And a low near the south coast on that chart too
GEM is going the same way.
The northern flank of that blob would get clobbered...
(ignore the "risque de neige" - the white hatching doesn't show up on these charts even in Greenland and Norway!)
After the endless dull charts of December, we certainly have plenty to watch now!
Yes it is, how reliable is this Arpege ? We know the GEM is extremely unreliable.
The northern flank of that blob would get clobbered...(ignore the "risque de neige" - the white hatching doesn't show up on these charts even in Greenland and Norway!)
That's global warming for you
I read that the Met Office regard it highly, plus it was of course the only model to correctly forecast the Oct '87 'Hurricane' that hit Southern England,
Ooh La La! It was being slammed by Ian Brown earlier as a "minor model". Not sure Meteo France would agree with that analysis – they are a serious government forecasting body. Not really sure why Arpege isn't given more credence on these forums – the UKMO for example are said to rate the French model.
Think its a higher res model than the big three?? but dont know its verification stats at all
Heavy rains in Siberia
Meanwhile the Guesswork Forecasting System spins up a deep runner low by 180 which pushes away the block with ease.http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011512/gfs-0-186.png?12
Ah, back to reliability.