Certainly seem's like we've lost the insane warmth of 2014, even if we've not gone especially cold... (yet  )

True! However the first 2 months of 2015 look v likely to come in above average,albeit only slightly.

If im not mistaken that will make 14 out of the last 15 months above the cet average.

Latest data suggests the CET will finish at 4.01C this month which is 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean.

Tomorrow and Saturday should be a little above average. Thursday looks very warm largely due to high minimums whereas Friday will be close to average. So the CET should rise by about 0.4C in the next 4 days.

Looking at the winter CET as a whole the current estimate is for a final figure of 4.53C compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 4.51C and a 1981-2010 mean of 4.49C. So this year will be bang on average overall.

CET for the first half of winter 5.5C. CET for the second half of winter 3.6C.

GW

Any possibility you can post your graphs of the ongoing daily temps of the 3 stations plus yours plus the current projections, plus Hadley out to end of the month? Also what do you see as an adjustemnt this month? 

Disappointed to see the models adjust things to milder still for the final few days of the month but what can you do eh?

Atmosphere one, models (mostly GFS for first 16 days followed by long range signals from EC-32 etc.) zero.

By contrast, it's an adjustment colder that alarms me for next month... GFS 12z leaves us nearly 2*C below the LTA by 9th of the month as signs of a cold continental feed develop further! 

The signals are starting to look a bit like they once did for the middle of February. Hopefully this one will go the way of the pear too.

Met Office Hadley      3.9c.      Anomaly     0.2c.    Provisional  to  25th.

Metcheck                  3.82c.    Anomaly    -0.38c.

N-W                         3.97c.    Anomaly    -0.24c

Mount  Sorrel            2.9c.     Anomaly     -1.3c.

My Mean                   3.4c.     Anomaly     -2.3c.

Met Office Hadley   4.1c.     Anomaly     0.3c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck              3.81c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.

N-W                     4.11c.    Anomaly    -0.1c.

Mount Sorrel         2.9c.      Anomaly    -1.3c.  Been the same for days.. Since the 14th Feb.....

My Mean              3.5c.       Anomaly    -2.2c.

Met Office Hadley   4.1c.     Anomaly     0.3c.  Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck              3.81c.    Anomaly    -0.39c.

N-W                     4.11c.    Anomaly    -0.1c.

Mount Sorrel         2.9c.      Anomaly    -1.3c.  Been the same for days.. Since the 14th Feb.....

My Mean              3.5c.       Anomaly    -2.2c.

With two days to go my 4.2 looks promising -but what downward adjustment is likely.?

I could do with it being bang on 4c and although it's likely there will be a downward adjustment, I doubt it will be quite enough.

I could do with it being bang on 4c and although it's likely there will be a downward adjustment, I doubt it will be quite enough.

I don't think you will be far off. My latest estimate suggests a final figure of 3.99C

 

I don't think you will be far off. My latest estimate suggests a final figure of 3.99C

There'll be a 0.9c downwards revision, surely!

 

There'll be a 0.9c downwards revision, surely!

Normal 31 day month and it might have gone up a little....

Met Office Hadley    4.1c.      Anomaly      0.3c      Provisional  to  27th.

Metcheck                3.88c.    Anomaly     -0.32c.

N-W                        4.13c.    Anomaly     -0.08c.     

Metcheck                2.9c.       Anomaly     -1.3c.

My Mean                 3.6c.      Anomaly      -2.1c.

Final figure for February was 4.03C

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2015

So Feb was in the end the first negative month since Aug....
At least I spotted a negative month, though I was about 2C too low!!

-0.19C vs the 1971- 2000 and -0.35C vs the 1981 - 2010.

Not far off a neutral 3 months of winter.
I am sure GW will correct me shortly!!.

Edit - Caz absolutely brilliant guess...... (what a shame)  

Never mind... The good news is you are still miles better than my guess.

Thanks Grandad!  I'm not celebrating yet until GW gives us the final figure and then works out my penalties for being late. 

Actually, if I'd seen the output and known how cold it had been here while I was on holiday, I might have guessed lower.  But when I saw I was late, I panicked and hastily plucked a figure out of thin air. 

Over on t' other side  N-W  have it 4.03c.  with an adjustment of  0.1c.    

Congratulations to Caz, GezM and speckedjim who all predicted 4.0C.

Here are the detailed stats for February

Interestingly Rothamsted was much cooler than Stonyhurst.

Here are the charts for February. Both the maximum and minimum CET were 0.2C below average

CET for 1-11 Feb 2.2C (-2.3C)

CET for 12-28 Feb 5.2C (+1.1C)

So a cold start to the month but then rather mild for the final couple of weeks.

The final winter CET came in at 4.54C which is almost exactly in line with both the 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 mean.

A very similar temperature profile to the 1983/4 winter. Much cooler than last year of course.

CET 1-25 Dec 5.8C (+0.6C)

CET 26-31 Dec 2.4C (-2.2C)

CET 1-16 Jan 6.0C (+1.7C)

CET 17-24 Jan 1.2C (-3.1C)

CET 25-28 Jan 5.7C (+1.8C)

CET 29 Jan to 11 Feb 2.3C (-2.0C)

CET 12-28 Feb 5.2C (+1.1C)

We had three distinct spells of cold weather during the winter, the first lasting 6 days, the second 8 days and the last 14 days. There was only limited snowfall away from the hills but nevertheless plenty of interest for cold weather fans this winter.

CET annual prediction competition - February update

Here are the latest tables to the end of February. Unfortunately Caz is no longer at the top of the table despite her excellent prediction in February. As the prediction was very late it incurred a hefty penalty.

Our new leader is John S2 followed closely by Dingle Rob.