Met Office Hadley      3.3c.     Anomaly     -0.5c.    Provisional   to   16th.

Metcheck                  3.13c.   Anomaly     -2.86c.

N-W                          3.25c.   Anomaly     -0.96c.

Mount   Sorrel           2.9c.    Anomaly      -1.3c.

My Mean                   2.6c.    Anomaly       -3.2c.

At the rate the CET is rising, I'm starting to think my 4c could be a little too low.   

0.9c here

Met Office Hadley       3.3c.      Anomaly      -0.4c.    Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                   3.22c.    Anomaly      -0.98c.

N-W                          3.3c.      Anomaly      -0. 91c.

Mount  Sorrel             2.9c.      Anomaly      -1.3c

My   Mean                  2.7c.      anomaly      -3.1c.

Met  Office  Hadley       3.5c.       Anomaly      -0.2c.     Provisional  to 18th.

Metcheck                     3.41c.     Anomaly      -0.79c.

N-W                            3.48c.     Anomaly      -0.73c.

Mount     Sorrel            2.9c.      Anomaly       -1.3c.

My     Mean                  2.7c.      Anomaly       -3.1c.    

So the provisional Hadley CET is now a whole degree Celsius above my local mean... I am not amused.

Using 3.5*C to 18th as a starting point, the 12z GFS produces a final CET of around 3.8*C.

Allowing for adjustments to the CET it could be as low as 3.6*C but I'm not counting on it. A 1.0*C error is not bad going for the model + signal projection I suppose, though it looks like using a model + LTA combination (i.e. just going for an average second half of the month instead of applying a cold or warm anomaly signal) would have landed closer.

I wonder if March will have a clear signal one way or the other by the final days of this month. At the moment, longer range tools keep switching between high latitude blocking and a strong Azores High extending across the south of the UK... two opposing extremes! 

Met Office Hadley     3.6c...     Anomaly     -0.0c.    Provisional  to 19th.

Metcheck                 3.50c.     Anomaly     -0.70c.

N-W                        3.65c.     Anomaly     -056c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.9c.      Anomaly      -1.3c.

My    Mean               2.9c.      Anomaly      -2.9c.

Met Office Hadley    3.7c.     Anomaly        0.0c.  Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                3.49c.   Anomaly       -0.7c.

N-W                       3.68c.   Anomaly       -0.53c.

Mount Sorrel           2.9c.    Anomaly        -1.3c

My Mean                 3.0c.    Anomaly        -2.8c.         

Met Office Hadley     3.7c.     Anomaly     0.0c.   provisional  to  21st.

Metcheck                 3.42c.   Anomaly    -0.78c.

N-W                        3.66c.   Anomaly    -0.55c.

Mount   Sorrel          2.9c.     Anomaly    -1.3c.

My    Mean               3.0c.     Anomaly    -2.8c.

My Annual  reads 4.0c. Anomaly -1.7c.   

Met Office Hadley      3.7c.     Anomaly     0.0c.      Provisional to  22nd.

Metcheck                   3.47c.   Anomaly    -0.73c.

N-W                            3.66c.   Anomaly    -0.55c

Mount       Sorrel           2.9c.     Anomaly    -1.3c.

My      Mean                   3.0c.     Anomaly    -2.7c.

 Met Office Hadley      3.7c.      Anomaly       0.0c.   Provisional to 23rd.

 Metcheck                  3.53c.    Anomaly       -0.67c.

 N-W                          3.71c.   Anomaly       -0.5c.

 Mount  Sorrel             2.9c.     Anomaly       -1.3c

 My    Mean                 3.1c.     Anomaly       -2.6c.

I'd be surprised if there was much change in the CET now and it's probably as high as it's going to get.  I could do with just a couple of degrees higher.

Latest data suggests the CET will finish at 4.01C this month which is 0.2C below the 1971-2000 mean.

Tomorrow and Saturday should be a little above average. Thursday looks very warm largely due to high minimums whereas Friday will be close to average. So the CET should rise by about 0.4C in the next 4 days.

Looking at the winter CET as a whole the current estimate is for a final figure of 4.53C compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 4.51C and a 1981-2010 mean of 4.49C. So this year will be bang on average overall.

CET for the first half of winter 5.5C. CET for the second half of winter 3.6C.

A finish of 4.01c would be just perfect for me GW!   

In all the years I've taken part in the CET competition, I think this is the first time I've been at the top of the table and I'm loving it! 

First 10 days of March currently looking close to average at 5.95C (about 0.2C above average).

The first day of the month should be very mild but then temperatures will be about +-1C from the mean on each of the next 9 days.

A finish of 4.01c would be just perfect for me GW!   

In all the years I've taken part in the CET competition, I think this is the first time I've been at the top of the table and I'm loving it! 

Unfortunately your late prediction for February (which was technically outside the window for even a late prediction) is going to land you with a hefty penalty which is a shame. Looks like it was a very good prediction.

 

Unfortunately your late prediction for February (which was technically outside the window for even a late prediction) is going to land you with a hefty penalty which is a shame. Looks like it was a very good prediction.

Such a shame when that happens - meanwhile some of us can penalise ourselves.....

First 10 days of March currently looking close to average at 5.95C (about 0.2C above average).

Certainly seem's like we've lost the insane warmth of 2014, even if we've not gone especially cold... (yet  )

Met Office Hadley           3.8c.       Anomaly    0.1c.   Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                       3.59c.     Anomaly   -0.61c.

N-W                               3.8c.       Anomaly    -0.41c.

Mount  Sorrel                 2.9c.       Anomaly    -1.3c.

My Mean                        3.2c.       Anomaly    -2.5c     

Unfortunately your late prediction for February (which was technically outside the window for even a late prediction) is going to land you with a hefty penalty which is a shame. Looks like it was a very good prediction.

I'll take the penalties on the nose like a man and put in a big effort with my guesses for the next ten months!