Thankyou GW.

I will refrain from posting on each daily change as you are clearly already collecting the data.

I did find tha above interesting,if its not too much effort to produce could you produce it on a regular montly basis? 

Of course - I produce it in the background anyway as part of my calculations so it does not add to my workload at all

Temperatures look like being above average for the rest of the month now. Should mean the CET will end up very close to average. Could change of course as we are not quite half way through the month yet.

The winter CET looks like ending up a fraction above average. But basically a very average winter overall.

 

Correct. The data used on the Hadley page is the 1961-1990 mean. The mean for 1-12 Feb is 4.2C whereas the mean for the whole of Feb is 3.8C.

One of those odd things about the British average weather: there's a double dip of the coldest mean temperatures, once in early January and again in late February. I'm not sure anyone's ever explained why.

Temperatures look like being above average for the rest of the month now. Should mean the CET will end up very close to average. Could change of course as we are not quite half way through the month yet.

The winter CET looks like ending up a fraction above average. But basically a very average winter overall.

Hi GW.

I might use these charts for my Blog over the weekend. If that's OK?

This came up in January as well, IIRC it uses the LTA to the specific date 

 

Hi GW.

I might use these charts for my Blog over the weekend. If that's OK?

Of course Gavin. No problem at all.

Correct. The data used on the Hadley page is the 1961-1990 mean. The mean for 1-12 Feb is 4.2C whereas the mean for the whole of Feb is 3.8C.

Thanks GW.  It's interesting that the LTA temp for the first half of February is higher than that of the second half! 

The difference is quite marked for the 1961-1990 mean with the first half of February at 4.0C and the second half at 3.5C

However, that difference disappears almost entirely in the 1971-2000 mean. It reappears in the 1981-2010 mean to some extent with the second half of the month 0.2C colder than the first half.

As it happens the coldest week of the winter in the 1981-2010 averages is the period from 14-20 Feb with a mean of just 3.76C.

Back in November when I was looking at various variables that might impact the winter temperatures I picked out 2011/12 as one of the years that potentially had a number of similarities to the way that the end of 2014 was shaping up. The temperatures in Autumn 2011 were almost identical to 2014.

The first two months of this winter have looked very similar to 2011/12 in many ways.

The average NAO index for Dec / Jan 2011/12 was 1.8. For 2014/15 the figure is also 1.8

The average number of sunspots in Dec / Jan 2011/12 was 66. The figure for 2014/15 is 73

The average QBO for Dec / Jan 2011/12 was -16.2. The figure for 2014/15 is -26.0 so somewhat lower this year.

The ENSO however was in a different phase in 2011/12 compared to this year

The mean CET for Dec/Jan 2011/12 was 5.7C. This year it has been 4.8C. Perhaps the more negative QBO has helped to hold temperatures down this year relative to 2011/12 but other facts have prevented this year from being particularly cold despite the QBO figure.

The QBO readings for Dec / Jan 2014/15 are the lowest on record for those two months both individually and combined since data is available from 1948. The figures for Dec / Jan 2011/12 place it in equal 6th place in terms of low readings.

Other factors have clearly enabled the NAO to stay very positive this winter despite the easterly bias implied by the QBO.

The relatively high sunspot readings clearly don't help. If we had been at a solar minimum this winter I think it is likely we would have seen colder conditions.

Back in November when I was looking at various variables that might impact the winter temperatures I picked out 2011/12 as one of the years that potentially had a number of similarities to the way that the end of 2014 was shaping up. The temperatures in Autumn 2011 were almost identical to 2014.

The first two months of this winter have looked very similar to 2011/12 in many ways.

The average NAO index for Dec / Jan 2011/12 was 1.8. For 2014/15 the figure is also 1.8

The average number of sunspots in Dec / Jan 2011/12 was 66. The figure for 2014/15 is 73

The average QBO for Dec / Jan 2011/12 was -16.2. The figure for 2014/15 is -26.0 so somewhat lower this year.

The ENSO however was in a different phase in 2011/12 compared to this year

The mean CET for Dec/Jan 2011/12 was 5.7C. This year it has been 4.8C. Perhaps the more negative QBO has helped to hold temperatures down this year relative to 2011/12 but other facts have prevented this year from being particularly cold despite the QBO figure.

The QBO readings for Dec / Jan 2014/15 are the lowest on record for those two months both individually and combined since data is available from 1948. The figures for Dec / Jan 2011/12 place it in equal 6th place in terms of low readings.

Other factors have clearly enabled the NAO to stay very positive this winter despite the easterly bias implied by the QBO.

The relatively high sunspot readings clearly don't help. If we had been at a solar minimum this winter I think it is likely we would have seen colder conditions.

Fascinating analysis GW.As you say the -ve QBO was not sufficient to offset the +NAO.The question is what factor drove the + NAO?

The best indicator for winter type was the METO forecast pressure anomalies for the DJF period which had an HP anomaly to the  west of Ireland.The winter weather was largely shaped by the position of the  Azores HP which shifted into mid Atlantic on occasions allowing a more nw to se flow and colder outbreaks.Notthern blocking has been noticeably absent.As you say GW more favourable conditions will likely arise nearer to solar minimum around 2019/20. 

I think 10th January-9th February CET is about 3.2C

Could we just go under 3C in the rolling 31 day average? 10th January was very mild.

13th January-12th February 2015 about 2.9C

I think that's 6 out of the last 7 winters that have had a 31 day rolling period that went sub 3C

How many winters from 1997-98 to 2007-08 actually had a 31 day period that went sub 3C? 2000-01, 2001-02?

 

13th January-12th February 2015 about 2.9C

I think that's 6 out of the last 7 winters that have had a 31 day rolling period that went sub 3C

How many winters from 1997-98 to 2007-08 actually had a 31 day period that went sub 3C? 2000-01, 2001-02?

 

have just looked at GW's CET figures.For the 28 days  16th Jan to 12th feb the mean CET was 2.6C. If the 13,14,15th of January are included then the figure riese to 2.8 which gives you your sub 3C for 31days.

Met Office Hadley        2.7c.      Anomaly      -1.4c.   Provisional to 13th

Metcheck                   2.64c.     Anomaly      -1.56c.

N-W                          2.72c      Anomaly      -1.49c.

Mount   Sorrel            2.9c.       Anomaly      -1.3c 

My    Mean                 2.0c.      Anomaly       -3.8c.     

 

Of course Gavin. No problem at all.

Thx.

 

The difference is quite marked for the 1961-1990 mean with the first half of February at 4.0C and the second half at 3.5C

However, that difference disappears almost entirely in the 1971-2000 mean. It reappears in the 1981-2010 mean to some extent with the second half of the month 0.2C colder than the first half.

As it happens the coldest week of the winter in the 1981-2010 averages is the period from 14-20 Feb with a mean of just 3.76C.

Thanks for the info! 

After such a promising start, this month is turning into one of the least interesting I can remember, lots of 'nothing much' conditions so far and from the looks of it some more to come. Occasional Atlantic influence but nothing noteworthy. The shortfall compared to what was suggested a couple of weeks back goes to show how useless the computer models are at the longer range.

With some mild westerlies now appearing in the output I'm almost into a rare spell of hibernation. 

Always a silver lining though - very usable conditions for the most part, not bad for getting out cycling or walking.

Edit 24 hours later: classic response by the model output, increasing the number of rain events and suggesting possible wind events too. Starting to look more interesting again 

Met Office Hadley     2.9c.     Anomaly     -1.0c.   Provisional  to 14th 

Metcheck                 2.96c.   Anomaly     -1.24c.

N-W                        2.95c.   Anomaly     -1.26c.

Mount    Sorrel         2.9c.    Anomaly      -1.3c.

My    Mean              2.3c.     Anomaly      -3.4c.

Met Office Hadley      3.1c.    Anomaly     -0.7c.    Provisional  to  15th.

Metcheck                  3.07c.  Anomaly     -1.13c.

N-W                         3.11c.  Anomaly     -1.1c.

Mount Sorrel             2.9c.    Anomaly    -1.3c.

My Mean                   2.5c.    Anomaly    -2.3c.

It's still heading in the right direction for me (and my heating bills). 

 

To paraphrase the old adage, two days is a long time in model output watching !

On the 9th, the trend was for increasing unsettledness as the month progressed. Now the models are hinting at either a more settled spell returning, or even a chilly evolution.

It wouldn't surprise me if the final figure was about halfway between your 2.4c and my 3.9c

But, course, the NWP rollercoaster has many a twist & turn

If two day is a long time, what's a week...?

Chillyish zonality seems the order of the day from now to the end of the month. I'd wager my trousers that my estimation ends up closer than yours