What an odd rationale. 

Personally I'm absolutely certain this is just another LRF. No magic formula and no more likely to be accurate than any other, so with that in mind I guess your underdog backing isn't so odd after all. They're all underdogs in a field of forecasting that is light years from sustained, scientifically proven accuracy. 

Yes but his one as  the statistics which show the correlation is very strong indeed, unlike any long range model. Time will tell of course over the coming winters if this is the future of long range winter forecasts or not.

 

What an odd rationale. 

Personally I'm absolutely certain this is just another LRF. No magic formula and no more likely to be accurate than any other, so with that in mind I guess your underdog backing isn't so odd after all. They're all underdogs in a field of forecasting that is light years from sustained, scientifically proven accuracy. 

 

i meant underdogs in the terms of organisation and budgets etc.  not forecast.  Agreed no one has the perfect model yet.  

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Yes but his one as  the statistics which show the correlation is very strong indeed, unlike any long range model. Time will tell of course over the coming winters if this is the future of long range winter forecasts or not.

Im sure it isn't, but it may or may not be a part of what ends up being the future. I remain sceptical for no other reason than we are so very far away from perfecting it. And when it is perfected (I don't think it ever will be BTW) how many winters-worth of data are required for an acceptable sample size? Even if we nailed it tomorrow, we would still probably be decades away from realising it for sure. 

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Interesting OPI forecast, well written, level, honest and well presented. Fascinating to see how this all plays out....  

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What an odd rationale. 

Personally I'm absolutely certain this is just another LRF. No magic formula and no more likely to be accurate than any other, so with that in mind I guess your underdog backing isn't so odd after all. They're all underdogs in a field of forecasting that is light years from sustained, scientifically proven accuracy. 

 

You really are a miserable git

 

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Im sure it isn't, but it may or may not be a part of what ends up being the future. I remain sceptical for no other reason than we are so very far away from perfecting it. And when it is perfected (I don't think it ever will be BTW) how many winters-worth of data are required for an acceptable sample size? Even if we nailed it tomorrow, we would still probably be decades away from realising it for sure. 

Hence why I said over the winters to come as it's still a work in progress Matty.

Hence why I said over the winters to come as it's still a work in progress Matty.

And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

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And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

 

Considering that a fair % of people only visit this site in the winter months purely to ramp up talk of winter weather, it should come as no surprise that a larger number of posts will be of the positive spin towards wintry weather.  Brian could probably attest to this when he looks at site traffic and can see when the temperature plummits, the hits go through the roof.  Therefore being deliberately negative about such behaviour - to an extent serves little benefit to the site.

 

Saying that, a healthy dose of realism to LRFs is useful.  Experienced winter weather followers know when to post and when not.  And - based on the fact that everything in this game is a forecast, nothing is certain, and that shouldnt need to be reminded, its a given.

 

Looking forward, we could or could not be on the cusp of a sold LR forecasting tool that actually works, not you or anyone else can say so.  Its something that we will only know in hindsight.  So being excited about it doesnt really matter.

 

Ill put a  because im not having a go.   

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If seasonal forecasting ever did become possible I wonder if the likes of Brian would actually appreciate it. If a cold, snowy winter were forecast this place would cost him a fortune in bandwidth. On the other hand, if mild and wet this place would be like a morgue, lol. 

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As I have said on may occasions a LRF is 7-10 days , even then at the end of that period the finer details will be incorrect .

Absolutely impossible to say what the weather will do over the UK in the next 3 months

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I've spoken to Riccardo about the OPI and wish him and his colleagues good luck. My take on it is the work should be going via a university / research institute in Italy and a paper needs publishing in a scientific journal to detail it. Finally I'm not clear about the involvement of Dr Judah Cohen.

 

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And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

I pretty much share this view. Look at the OPI forcast and, like almost all other LRF's, it has all the popular bases covered. Cold spells (more of) and mild spells (less of), no dates, some new kind of fancy index, some plausible new 'science',  in other words the usual stuff...

I don't think that LRFing is impossible tho, I think they will improve, but I think it will be a slow process involving throwing more and more computer power at it. Will we ever be able to say, in November, what January the 12th will be like? Probably not.

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And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

I agree with your sentiments as I'm equally as dismissive of LRF, but the correlation on the small sample size is excellent using the OPI but it's not infallible and the authors of this index admit this as such. What it is, is  an interesting forecasting tool that no doubt will have it's faults, these same faults tend to occur with values around  zero  when there is no clear signal looking at the past data. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

 

So if the winter turns out cold or very cold will you ram fruitless folly down the throats of those who forecasted mild? There are usually plenty out there.

You can't kick these outfits for trying. Unless they genuinely have no logic or method and just fabricate words in attempt to con the public and gain credibility without believing a word they write.

Personally I find all the speculation fun and interesting. Sometimes I wonder why people post here if they clearly have no interest whatsoever in teleconnections, long range patterns, new theories etc, but each to their own.

This is a forum attached to a long range weather site after all.

It's all good fun, nobody dies, and I'd rather have access to this kind of material than not. As long as people don't treat it as absolute gospel.

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And will be for decades to come is my point. 

Ive no problem with LRFs per se, it's the numpties that come out with crap like how interesting this or any other winter is looking based on a cold LRF. The same numpties who would undoubtedly dismiss a mild LRF. It's misleading and it thoroughly annoys me. In case you hadn't noticed. 

It it makes me want the winter to be mild and miserable just so I can ram the fruitless folly of these misguided loyalties down people's throats. But it wouldn't make any difference, because next winter they'll still grasp onto every cold LRF out there and proclaim how exciting this winter is looking. 

Saint's right, I am a miserable git, but I have a reason to be. If only others had the balls to say it publicly. Speaking of which, I'd still like to know Brian Gaze's public view on this. 

In the meantime, LRFs are essential. Without experimentation there can never be a successful conclusion. As I stated earlier,  I honestly don't think there will ever be a formula that works, but I may well be wrong. In the meantime I just wish people could accept it for what it is. 

Why?

His guesses aren't any more valid than this one surely?! :D

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So if the winter turns out cold or very cold will you ram fruitless folly down the throats of those who forecasted mild? There are usually plenty out there.

You can't kick these outfits for trying. Unless they genuinely have no logic or method and just fabricate words in attempt to con the public and gain credibility without believing a word they write.

No, you've missed the point. Apart from outfits like C*rbyn I don't knock anyone of them for trying. It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 

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Why?

His guesses aren't any more valid than this one surely?! :D

Private joke ;-)

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It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 

So true, well said

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No, you've missed the point. Apart from outfits like C*rbyn I don't knock anyone of them for trying. It's the twits that see a snowy LRF and then get all excited, tell their mates what's in store and then ultimately moan when it doesn't happen, and then usually blame the MetO. 

Its so maddening when that happens 

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