Its so maddening when that happens 

Don't give up your day job Q, eh?

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O.P.I.= F.o.T.M.

 

 

Flavour of the Month

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Good evening,

I've been researching past winters for quite a while now and I have come up with my thoughts on this winter including the OPI, hence why I am posting this here.

My thoughts for this year will include past instances of the OPI below -1, ENSO, Easterly QBO and historical data including Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, so here goes.

The years I have pinned down from past winters include, 1976/77 - 1986/87 - 2009/10.

2012 came very close, however, the ENSO turned negative (neutral) during the winter period and although the current ENSO is neutral it certainly wont turn to a negative neutral and in fact looks like becoming a weak El Nino.

76/77 Had 2 out of the 3 winter months with below average temps.

86/87 also had 2 months with below ave temps.

09/10 well, all 3 were below .

So one could suggest that we could be in for at least 2 colder than average months during winter based on this, with the AO likely to be negative throughout winter. The NOA will be the player should this also turn negative, although this is far more uncertain. This said here are some NOA scores from the years selected. These are monthly figures:

1976/77

Dec: -1.57   Jan: -1.72    Feb: -1.0

 

1986/87

Dec: 0.83    Jan: -1.85    Feb:  -1.27

 

2009/10

Dec: -1.88   Jan: -1.8    Feb:  -2.69

 

Some very negative NAO scores there so the signals are also good and its possible cold pooling in the Northern Atlantic has a part to play in this. We currently have a cold pool in the Northern Atlantic

 

This year is certainly a far cry from last year and I personally don't expect anything like last years pattern, in fact I fancy quite the opposite. There are already signals suggesting some sort of warming in the stratosphere (wave1) with hints of wave2 and also the NAO is trending negative at month end. However I feel we wont really see our proper cold shot until around the last 3rd of December, but once the pattern changes to cold, it may well be in for a while, perhaps until the end of January or early Febuary. Of course milder intrusions will occur during this period but the cold pattern will be the dominating factor, more likely in the form of a NE/E'ly flow.

 

 

 

 

The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.

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The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.

This sort of thing has occurred to me aswell, I must say I was very skeptical of the OPI when I first heard about it. However, I did check the names of the academics involved and it does seem to check out; at the very least it isn't a bunch of amateurs. 

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The beauty of theories based on previous year pattern matching is the year that you release the 'research', you can tailor the logic of the theory to accurately backtest for however long you like. I wonder how the OPI fares with 100 years backtesting - fairly poorly I should imagine. I fear this theory will never become a theorem because the data set and logic are cherry picked. You can also provide wide brackets for verification. I fear the 'OPI' has all the tenants of an aesthetic theory. For what ends, I'm not really sure. However, it is interesting to note that the host doman www.til.it is a transport and logistics company in Italy and therefore not, I would put it, a particularly credilbe URL to locate scientifc research. Indeed, this appears to be rather some form of 'garage' research!

I would be very surprised to see this verify in the course of the next 30-40 years.

 

Do these tenants rent the site then? (Tenets/tenants)

The work is in peer review, hence the absence from the public domain of details of the hypothesized mechanism to which the authors ascribe the Oct./winter correlation.

Here is the posting from the authors last year where they explained how they had to withdraw the downloadable research paper, as it had gone into peer review with a view to publication.

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html

Hence why the domain is not an "official" academic site, but the online equivalent of a sketch on the back of an envelope.

They left us with this extract from the first page of the paper, which explains the correlations, but not, of course, the calculations:

http://www.meteonetwork.it/cronaca-meteo/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-stagione-invernale

If you're going to have a go at long-range weather outlooks in general, then you have to rely on hindcasting of some kind, as the complexities of all the inputs, outputs and interactions which determine the weather make physical cause-and-effect forecasting impossible. You only have to look at the results from seasonal forecasts based on the outcomes of ensembles of weather models to see that.

So you look for analogues, pattern matches or broad variations from the past and see whether they fit. If they do, then you propose a mechanism to explain them. Then you hope to live for a few hundred years for enough results to come in to see whether you're on the right lines.

So there's always going to be an amateurish and fun element to long-range ideas on weather or climate. There aren't going to be any "theorems", as you put it, though an awful lot of "scientists" out there seem to claim to have them. But that doesn't stop it being a legitimate area of interest imo, as long as people don't treat the ideas put forward as cast-iron scientific theories.

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This sort of thing has occurred to me aswell, I must say I was very skeptical of the OPI when I first heard about it. However, I did check the names of the academics involved and it does seem to check out; at the very least it isn't a bunch of amateurs. 

Indeed Quantum, I too was very sceptical last year when I stumbled across this ( and still remain a tad sceptical ) but the correlation looks good but there are other factors for me which can override the AO signal as you yourself have highlighted.

 

Do these tenants rent the site then? (Tenets/tenants)

The work is in peer review, hence the absence from the public domain of details of the hypothesized mechanism to which the authors ascribe the Oct./winter correlation.

Here is the posting from the authors last year where they explained how they had to withdraw the downloadable research paper, as it had gone into peer review with a view to publication.

http://forum.meteonetwork.it/meteorologia/150683-opi-october-pattern-index.html

Hence why the domain is not an "official" academic site, but the online equivalent of a sketch on the back of an envelope.

They left us with this extract from the first page of the paper, which explains the correlations, but not, of course, the calculations:

http://www.meteonetwork.it/cronaca-meteo/october-pattern-index-opi-un-nuovo-indice-altamente-predittivo-stagione-invernale

If you're going to have a go at long-range weather outlooks in general, then you have to rely on hindcasting of some kind, as the complexities of all the inputs, outputs and interactions which determine the weather make physical cause-and-effect forecasting impossible. You only have to look at the results from seasonal forecasts based on the outcomes of ensembles of weather models to see that.

So you look for analogues, pattern matches or broad variations from the past and see whether they fit. If they do, then you propose a mechanism to explain them. Then you hope to live for a few hundred years for enough results to come in to see whether you're on the right lines.

So there's always going to be an amateurish and fun element to long-range ideas on weather or climate. There aren't going to be any "theorems", as you put it, though an awful lot of "scientists" out there seem to claim to have them. But that doesn't stop it being a legitimate area of interest imo, as long as people don't treat the ideas put forward as cast-iron scientific theories.

Thanks that's a good post. Personally I think this method has good promise for predicting the AO, although that is still a significant step away from predicting what kind of winter we will have.

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http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp 
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Looks like a continental easterly flow dominating. We've not had that type of winter for a long time.

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Looks like a continental easterly flow dominating. We've not had that type of winter for a long time.

I think the anomaly is for a semi permanent block to our E/NE, like you say it's been quite a while since we've seen such a set up. I suppose a lot will depend on how strong the jet is coming out of the eastern seaboard but with such a block in place over such a period of time the jet should be well to our South, if of course this forecast verifys.

http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Very similar to the BCC forecast

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http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

If you look carefully Scandinavia,E Europe and C Europe have negative temp anomalies.However Scotland an western Spain Portugal are positive.

It looks like will be right on the edge of the HP influence.With HP to the east there is always the risk that we remain in the nomansland between the Atlantic depressions and the cold air to the east.That strikes me as the likeliest outcome rather than perpetual  easterlies.

 

If you look carefully Scandinavia,E Europe and C Europe have negative temp anomalies.However Scotland an western Spain Portugal are positive.

It looks like will be right on the edge of the HP influence.With HP to the east there is always the risk that we remain in the nomansland between the Atlantic depressions and the cold air to the east.That strikes me as the likeliest outcome rather than perpetual  easterlies.

Thats why I referred to it as semi permanent block as I believe we will be under the influence of the Atlantic at times with the ebbing and flowing of the block to our East. Also parts of Scotland rarely do well out these set ups apart from the Eastern side that is so the anomaly showing will be correct if it pans out like that.

I've spoken to Riccardo about the OPI and wish him and his colleagues good luck. My take on it is the work should be going via a university / research institute in Italy and a paper needs publishing in a scientific journal to detail it. Finally I'm not clear about the involvement of Dr Judah Cohen.

 

Cohen's words:

You certainly have done your homework if you know that I met with the Italian scientists that are developing the OPI. For now there isn’t much for me to say. The idea is interesting but still needs to be vetted and I hope that we can collaborate on this potentially significant advancement in seasonal prediction.

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

It's an interesting interview, in which (I think) he explains how the polar low which has appeared over NW Asia this month was not an event he expected on the basis of the rapid advance of snow cover in October, and one which has resulted in restricting both the expansion of the Siberian high and wave activity into the stratosphere:

The deep polar low in Northwestern Asia that developed in November has interfered with the expansion of the Siberian high.  The WAFz was active in November but I believe that it would have been even more active had the polar low not formed in that unusual location.

 So not exactly winter's over, but perhaps a good test of the OPI as a forecasting tool.

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http://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
Cohens forecast for this winter is out.

Tick tock. Tick tock.

 

Tick tock. Tick tock.

I think he has since changed it

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I think he has since changed it

As did I. I predict that Winter 2013/14 will be mild and wet with substantial flooding on the Somerset Levels and in the Thames Valley.

 

As did I. I predict that Winter 2013/14 will be mild and wet with substantial flooding on the Somerset Levels and in the Thames Valley.

I predict January and February will be severely cold and snowy everywhere.
I will change it in due course to fit the conditions, which may be the total opposite of the above.

See, this LRF game is a doddle

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Verdict?

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