I am on holiday next week and I hope these charts verify:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=204&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Not a stonking HP cell, but could be far worse than that.

Slack HP and no precipitation over the UK.

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Looks like a westerly flow, wetter in the north, drier to the south, temps cool to average.

I am on holiday next week and I hope these charts verify:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=204&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Not a stonking HP cell, but could be far worse than that.

Slack HP and no precipitation over the UK.

It look stonking strong HP nationwide with dry air from Europe which give the north a chance to see proper settled weather.  Remember in summer 1020-1025mb is the best you can get because it does not reach 1030mb often and go high as 1040-45mb only in winter months.  Not sure why in summer it doesn't reach 1040-45mb here. Like what you said I do hope it will verify because we well over due for a nationwide HP days which is very normal to get it often in summer time.

Really hope this models verify and continues showing in the next runs

NAO also looking better ?

Could be a wet couple of days or so for the drier parts of the UK.  With better conditions for Edinburgh? With water levels very low locally and the local chalk stream in danger of drying up for the first time in a very very long while, I hope that these systems do manage to drop a lot of water in the places it is needed.

 

 

Arpege has over 80mm of rain by Thursday morning for parts of East Anglia, and up to 70mm for parts of London. Could be some serious flooding in urban areas.

 

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/runs/2017080800/arpegeuk-25-54-0.png?08-06

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ECM 12z op at 240hrs is horrific for late summer.

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ECM 12z op at 240hrs is horrific for late summer.

Agree with that Kevin- hopefully it's an outlier.

GFS 12z at the same timeframe looks a lot less bad, IMO.

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The latest GFS ensembles have flipped away from a warmer second half of August and now show a generally coolish and unsettled picture for the duration. Yuck.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

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Who said this?  No prizes for correct answer.

stunning summer so far here. Almost constant warm/hot conditions, interspersed with occasional days of average temps and barely any rain of note. Easily the best start to a summer for years. 

We had 9 days of " Stonking " weather in June , yes and probaly 5 days of very good weather in July, but that to me does not constitute a great summer. Like others have said its down to opinion on how you perceive a good summer. 

with the latest signals of unsettled weather I think it will be average to poor overall.

 

last really long, consistant summer we had was 1995, although 2003 was very good and also 2006, not as long lasting

 

Hasn't September tended to be warm and settled the last few years? Hopefullty 2017 will follow the trend and make up for a dismal August.

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We had 9 days of " Stonking " weather in June , yes and probaly 5 days of very good weather in July, but that to me does not constitute a great summer. Like others have said its down to opinion on how you perceive a good summer. 

with the latest signals of unsettled weather I think it will be average to poor overall.

 

last really long, consistant summer we had was 1995, although 2003 was very good and also 2006, not as long lasting 

 

The last August we could class as 'very good' or above was 2003. Since then, most Augusts have been below average in terms of sunny & hot spells.

Average temps may not seem to have taken a hit, but that feels like it's more a combination of mild nights and consistently average maxes in cloudy conditions.

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i have this argument with my brother every year. June and July have been decent ish months. Plenty of high temps to chase, and thunder storms to romance about. This coming after a very pleasant May. this month is no different. August for the past decade or so has been consistently the ugly sibling of the summer months. Colder, wetter overall less useful summer month. September has consistently been the better performer too. Lets not forget astronomically August is the equivalent of April.

Why are people surprised by poor weather in this country. 10 out of 30 days are typically the wet days, which so far, hasnt been far from the truth again this month.

I do fear people hark back to a time when they believed summers were constantly sunny and hot. We live in Britain, surely we know we dont get that kind of weather here - well consistently anyway. If we do get cold weather in the winter - that is unusual. same too is dry setled and warm weather in the summer. Its the exception to the rule for a country so far north and surrounded by water.

One word for this summer - Average.

My veg and plants have all grown well this year.

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last really long, consistant summer we had was 1995, although 2003 was very good and also 2006, not as long lasting

 

Agree about 1995- that is still the best summer overall I can remember in my part of the world. The hot, dry & settled weather really was dominant that summer from mid-June onwards in a way that hasn't been the case with any summer since. 2003 and 2006, although also good, were not quite as persistently settled as 1995 and the good weather in both of those summers seemed to be interrupted more by brief unsettled spells during June and July. August was a bit of a let-down that year though as others have commented in the past.

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A couple of better days on the latest ecm but some really ugly charts on days 8 and 9. We could be talking flooding next week. Astonishing how the weather just flipped overnight back in late July. No sign of any return to summer tonight.

 

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A couple of better days on the latest ecm but some really ugly charts on days 8 and 9. We could be talking flooding next week. Astonishing how the weather just flipped overnight back in late July. No sign of any return to summer tonight.

 

Doesn't surprise me at all. If anyone can show some charts with some decent improvement - Please show them now.

 

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A couple of better days on the latest ecm but some really ugly charts on days 8 and 9. We could be talking flooding next week. Astonishing how the weather just flipped overnight back in late July. No sign of any return to summer tonight.

 

 

A pattern change to unsettled weather around the start of the last third of July is usually bad news for the remainder of summer, from my experience.

This year looks like being a classic example.

Perhaps we will get some better looking model output in September ( a la 1985) which will hopefully verify.

Though, to those in the North and Scotland, it will probably feel like scoring from a penalty in the fifth minute of injury time at the end of the match... when you're 7-0 down.

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A pattern change to unsettled weather around the start of the last third of July is usually bad news for the remainder of summer, from my experience.

This year looks like being a classic example.

St Swithin's Day - 15 July!

If on St Swithin's day do rain/ for 40 days it will remain

If St Swithin's day be fair / for 40 days 'twill rain no more.

Who needs computer models?

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Looks potentially wet during the middle of the month. Drier spells before and after.

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Still nothing too exciting in the models I see - warmest and driest further south east as you'd expect but even here there's a fair bit of rain around for the time of year. Looking at the ECM it's notable that whilst HP ridges over at least some of the UK it doesn't stick about for long and is displaced by more LPs.

Still all it would take to break the pattern is a more robust HP and less influence from the jet and things would look much better. Any bets on whether this happens towards the end of the month, ready for September?

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