EMS for Birmingham and Loughborough.

A drying and warming trend by the looks of things for now.

 

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GFS 06 still looking good for Bank Holiday, just hope it verifies in all runs now, and other modesl pick up.

6z just about maintains the drying and warming theme.

 

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6z just about maintains the drying and warming theme.

 

It seem that the unsettled weather was programmed to strike us right on cue from 18th July to mid August because it summer peak time and good timing for strong heatwaves to occur.  It all damaged now and lost chances but to avoid very long Autumnal weather this chart above would be welcomed for prolonged usable days and just warm enough to carry on wearing summer clothing, avoid heating and coats. Was in horror to see people wearing coats, hats and scarves last week in August.

12z still hanging on to a better spell, just hope it keeps verifying.  ECMWF maybe latching onto something better too?

Another very good gfs this morning and a good ecm Op for once . For the south its looking pretty good for the next 10 days . The north closer to pesky low pressures but better than the last month. Summer is back ?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

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One day of rain in the next 16 if the GEFS is to be believed 

 

 

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One day of rain in the next 16 if the GEFS is to be believed 

 

 

Bank holiday weekend look iffy but still far away, at least most days will be dry enough to do things outside.  So far no signs for proper heatwave as it already damaged and cannot salvage it back like before and European heat also faded away.

Seven days of rain in the next 10 if the GEFS is to be believed

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850aberdeen0.png 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png 

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Another very good gfs this morning and a good ecm Op for once . For the south its looking pretty good for the next 10 days . The north closer to pesky low pressures but better than the last month. Summer is back ?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

 

Better than the last two-and-a-half months as far as my neck of thw woods is concerned.

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A direct hit from Gert followed by a cool Northerly ? That would just about sum up August nicely.

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Better than the last two-and-a-half months as far as my neck of thw woods is concerned.

 

Sadly the models have taken a turn for the worse again especially for the north. The ukmo being particularly crap this evening.

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html ouch!

 

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Sadly the models have taken a turn for the worse again especially for the north. The ukmo being particularly crap this evening.

 

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html ouch!

 

GFS 12z looks OK for the few days beyond next Monday, though that is a long way from being set in stone at the moment.

Monday has always looked like a poor day- the only uncertainty has been on the exact track of ex-storm Gert.

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Horrific ECM , and a very similar chart to the one that started this prolonged unsettled spell a few weeks ago.

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Horrific ECM , and a very similar chart to the one that started this prolonged unsettled spell a few weeks ago.

Might be an idea to wait and see what the ECM mean charts show us plus what the runs tomorrow indicate before we draw any conclusions, IMO.

FWIW, ECM seems to be handling the track of the LP containing the remnants of Gert at the start of next weeks somewhat differently to UKMO and GFS. They seem to have it as a deeper feature and show it moving away to the east quicker than ECM. Until this is sorted out, we can't be sure as to what follows on from that.

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As an example of what I was talking about in my post above, here is a comparison of the ECM and GFS 12z charts for T+168, i.e a week from today:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

Until exactly what ex-storm Gert is likely to do becomes clear, we should take all output for the period beyond early next week with a pinch of salt, in my view.

 

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Another 11th hour spoiler that potentially threatens to ruin 3 or 4 days next week. For Scotland summer never really got started this year and since 20th July this recurring unsettled theme has also affected the south. 

Fortunately the traditional 8 hour drive west to Cornwall has sensibly been replaced with an 8 hour drive south these days. We leave for 2 weeks on Friday. This gets us to latitude 46N near La Rochelle....far enough south to get us into the high pressure zone with light breezes, ample sunshine and temps in the mid to high 20's.

 

 

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Im definitely getting out of the UK next Summer Steve! Looking ahead at the charts, looks like a continuation of the August pattern with the High Pressure too far south. GFS shows the High building NE though at the start of September which wouldnt surprise any of us!

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No consistency between the big three at the moment wrt early-mid next week. FI starts pretty early at the moment I reckon.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

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Another 11th hour spoiler that potentially threatens to ruin 3 or 4 days next week. For Scotland summer never really got started this year and since 20th July this recurring unsettled theme has also affected the south. 

Fortunately the traditional 8 hour drive west to Cornwall has sensibly been replaced with an 8 hour drive south these days. We leave for 2 weeks on Friday. This gets us to latitude 46N near La Rochelle....far enough south to get us into the high pressure zone with light breezes, ample sunshine and temps in the mid to high 20's.

 

 

Yes a very good summary IMO. 

PS: La Rochelle is a nice place to go on hols. 

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