Summer will return next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/40205520?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central 

:)

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Jun 2017 to Friday 23 Jun 2017:

As next week progresses settled conditions are likely to extend across the United Kingdom with some sunny spells developing, but there may be occasional spells of rain across the north and west, where it will be breezy at times. Feeling slightly warmer as we move through the week, especially in any sunshine, and it could become very warm or hot in places over the weekend, particularly across the south. Into the following week, and it will probably remain settled at first, but there are signs that more unsettled conditions are likely to develop. These more unsettled conditions may well be preceded by thundery downpours, particularly in the south, where temperatures are likely to remain very warm or hot.

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Jun 2017 to Saturday 8 Jul 2017:

The rest of June and early July is likely to see a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or hot spells at times. There are signs that early July may bring a more general period of drier, settled weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Interesting update. Definite shift towards something hotter.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Jun 2017 to Saturday 24 Jun 2017:

On Thursday, sunshine and showers are likely across the north with fresh winds and cooler conditions. In the southeast, it may be very warm and humid, with heavy and thundery showers possible for a time. However, fresher conditions are likely to reach the southeast on Friday, with a mixture of sunshine and showers for many. As we head into next weekend, settled conditions are likely to extend across the United Kingdom with sunny spells but there may be occasional spells of rain and strong winds across the far northwest. Feeling warm next weekend, with a continued risk of some thundery showers in the south. Into the following week, and it will probably remain settled at first, but there are signs that more unsettled and probably cooler conditions could develop.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Jun 2017 to Sunday 9 Jul 2017:

The rest of June and early July is likely to see a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or hot spells at times. There are signs that early July may bring a more general period of drier, settled weather, particularly in the west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Jun 2017 to Sunday 25 Jun 2017:

Friday is expected to stay very warm and sunny in the south and east. The whole of England and Wales will probably stay dry, though North Wales and north-west England will not be quite as warm. In western Scotland and Northern Ireland, it will be windy and cooler, with frequent showers. As we head into next weekend, dry and warm conditions are likely to continue in the south including a good deal of sunshine but further north, rain, cloud and strong winds are more likely. The following week will probably remain settled for most of us at first, but there are signs of more cloud, rain and showers later in the week, though it will probably stay fairly warm.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Jun 2017 to Monday 10 Jul 2017:

The end of June and early July is likely to give us a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells at times. There are signs that early July may bring a more general period of drier, settled weather, particularly in the west, though signs are that it could be slightly less warm.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Yet another change from MetO. Why bother with these longer range forecasts. Gone from "very warm or hot" to "slightly less warm". Pointless.

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Yet another change from MetO. Why bother with these longer range forecasts. Gone from "very warm or hot" to "slightly less warm". Pointless.

Is it me or as the quality of these forecasts deteriorated over the last year or two. They use to be far better IMO, though I may well be wrong?

Is it me or as the quality of these forecasts deteriorated over the last year or two. They use to be far better IMO, though I may well be wrong?

No I think you are right. They have become very poor in the last few years. Change pretty much every day and are extremely vague. Almost completely pointless. They generally run along the lines of "possibly settled, possibly unsettled, warm or cool, wet or dry".

In other words, "we haven't got a bloody clue".

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Is it me or as the quality of these forecasts deteriorated over the last year or two. They use to be far better IMO, though I may well be wrong?

The quality of the BBC forecasts have deteriorated over the last few years also. 10 years ago I used to rate the BBC above all others but not anymore. Nowadays I turn on the forecast to see the Aberdeen temperature several degrees below what actually transpires like they are forecasting for an oil rig out in the North Sea. I am sure I read Doc had sent in several complaints about this basic mistake but it has never been rectified. Very amateur to be honest.

Also I thought the BBC was changing away from the met office in spring 2017. Doesn't seem to have happened?

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 12 June—Sunday 18 June
A northwest/southeast split, and warming up.

After a windy and showery start across Scotland, much of the UK will enjoy a mostly dry day, although skies will tend to be rather cloudy at times. The odd shower will likely affect northern and western areas at times, with the best of the sunshine reserved for southern and eastern England.

In fact, the pattern of Monday's weather will often be repeated throughout the bulk of this period, with breezy, showery weather crossing Northern Ireland, northwest England and western Scotland on all days. Much of the remaining parts of England and Wales, and also sometimes eastern Scotland, will often be fine and dry. The exception to this rule is that there will be a slight threat of the odd thundery shower crossing the far southeast of England on Thursday.

This general set up is the result of the anticipated jet stream position being just to the northwest of the UK, steering any Atlantic lows and their attendant weather fronts across northwestern regions, and allowing pressure to build from the south.

As we head into the weekend, the weather forecasting models and tools at our disposal suggest that pressure will continue to build from the south, meaning that the majority of the UK should experience some fine and relatively warm weather, with only the extreme north under threat of wetter and windier conditions.

Monday 19 June—Sunday 25 June
Warm and dry for most at first, but for how long?

This period will most likely start on an anticyclonic note, with the majority of the UK enjoying fine an dry conditions. The feel of the weather will however be greatly influence by the exact position of the anticyclone. Should the system be centred slightly to the west, a broadly north to northwesterly flow will maintain average temperatures, which will still feel quite pleasant. However, should the anticyclone be centred over or just to the east of the UK, some very warm air could be drawn up from the near continent. At the time of issue, there is very little computer model consensus on the exact positioning of the anticyclone. So although we are fairly confident in dry conditions for most, just how warm conditions get is still open to some doubt.

As the week progresses, there are increasing signs in the forecast models that the high will tend to break down, and further Atlantic weather systems will begin to impinge on the UK, bringing spells of wet and windy weather again. These unsettled spells will once again most likely be chiefly steered across north western regions of the UK, and it's also probable that temperatures will return to values nearer the average for the time of year.

Monday 26 June—Sunday 9 July
An uncertain picture for late June and early July.

There is always an inherently lower degree of confidence in the forecast detail for the longer range period, but even taking this factor into account, the uncertainty in forecast for the start of July is particularly high. At time of writing, there is very little computer forecasting model consensus for the type of weather pattern we can expect during this period, particularly as we head into early July. During the winter months, in addition to computer models, meteorologists can often use observations in weather patterns and phenomena on the other side of the globe to help shape ideas for longer range forecasts closer to home, but these methods do not correlate as well during the summer.

At the start of this period, conditions will most likely be wet and windy at times, particularly in the north and west, with drier weather often found across eastern areas of the UK. Beyond the end of June, the only consistent signal from the tools available to us is that of slightly higher pressure in the vicinity of the UK during the first week of July. Some models also hint that this pressure anomaly might be positioned slightly to the west. These factors lead us to forecast that for the beginning of July, the most likely prevailing conditions across the UK will be drier than average weather, with a slight downwards trend in temperatures, although with daytime maxima probably still above values normally expected in early July.

Next week

Find out next week if we can firm up on the forecast trends for the first half of July.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 17 Jun 2017 to Monday 26 Jun 2017:

As we head into next weekend we will probably see a northwest - southeast spilt in the weather across the UK. Dry and warm conditions are likely to continue in the south including a good deal of sunshine at times, with winds easing. Further north, cloud, rain or showers and strong winds are more likely at times, but also some dry and brighter spells. Confidence is currently low for the following week. Conditions will probably remain settled for most of us at first, but there are signs of more cloud, rain and showers later in the week with an increasing risk of stronger winds, especially in the northwest. However, it will probably stay fairly warm, but become cooler with time.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 11 Jul 2017:

The end of June and early July is likely to give us a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells at times. There are signs that early July may bring a more general period of drier, settled weather, particularly in the west, though signs are that it could be slightly less warm for a time.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 27 Jun 2017:

At the end of this weekend we will probably see a north - south spilt in the weather. Dry and warm, or locally hot, conditions are likely to continue in the south including a good deal of sunshine at times, with light winds. Further north, cloud, rain or showers and stronger winds are more likely at times, especially in the northwest, but also some dry and brighter spells. Confidence is currently low from next Tuesday, until the end of the period. Conditions will probably remain settled for most of us at first, but there are signs of more cloud, rain and showers later in the week, especially in the northwest, perhaps with some thunderstorms in the south. However, it will probably stay fairly warm, but become cooler with time.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 28 Jun 2017 to Wednesday 12 Jul 2017:

The end of June and early July is likely to give us a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells at times. There are signs that a more general period of drier, settled weather may develop later, particularly in the west, though signs are that it could be slightly less warm for a time at first.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Monday 19 Jun 2017 to Wednesday 28 Jun 2017:

The far northwest is still likely to be cloudy on Monday and Tuesday, with rain at times that may spread further south-eastwards. Elsewhere will be dry and warm, with a good deal of sunshine, and it may be hot in the south and southeast. There is however a small chance of heavy showers or thunderstorms in the south and southeast in response to these hot temperatures. Confidence is currently low from next Wednesday, until the end of the period. Conditions will probably remain settled for most of us at first, but there are signs of more cloud, rain and showers later in the week, especially in the northwest, perhaps with some thunderstorms in the south. It will probably stay fairly warm, but will then become cooler with time.

UK Outlook for Thursday 29 Jun 2017 to Thursday 13 Jul 2017:

The end of June and early July is likely to give us a mixture of weather, with a cooler spell likely at first. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. There will be the ongoing risk of thundery outbreaks too, especially in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells at times. There are signs that a more general period of drier, settled weather may develop in early July, particularly in the west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Last night's BBC News Channel 2155 weather mentioning the chance of low pressure and thunderstorms coming up from the south in a week or so. Not certain as an Atlantic breakdown was given as the alternative, but as the thundery low has not been mentioned previously it's worth keeping an eye on

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 21 Jun 2017 to Friday 30 Jun 2017:

Much of the United Kingdom is likely to be mostly dry with plenty of sunshine on Wednesday, after a fresher start, especially in the south. Further warm and humid weather is likely to spread N into W parts later next week, before pushing erratically E across all of the UK. This will be accompanied by cloudier conditions and outbreaks of rain, with the possibility of some heavy, thundery downpours. As the rain clears, turning much fresher with sunshine and showers most likely, especially for NW areas. Into the following week, unsettled conditions look most likely to become established across the United Kingdom, although confidence is low. It will probably stay fairly warm, but then becoming cooler with time.

UK Outlook for Saturday 1 Jul 2017 to Saturday 15 Jul 2017:

July is likely to bring a mixture of weather. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions. There will be the ongoing risk of thundery outbreaks too, especially in the south. Temperatures are likely to be above normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells at times. There are however signs that a more prolonged period of drier, settled and weather may develop in early July, particularly in the west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Jun 2017 to Monday 3 Jul 2017:

Rather cloudy with outbreaks of rain in the south at first this weekend, with cool, showery conditions and some sunny spells in the north. The cooler, showery conditions then possibly spreading to all parts later in the weekend, although confidence in the timings of this is low. Looking ahead, changeable conditions look likely to prevail, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, or longer spells of rain possible. The showers could be heavy with thunder, especially in the south or southeast, where it is also likely to be driest. It will be rather windy at times with a risk of gales, mainly in the north. Temperatures will be near normal overall with a low chance of hot conditions returning, into the south or southeast at least.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 4 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 18 Jul 2017:

A continuation of the rather cool, changeable or unsettled weather looks most likely at first. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions, mainly in the northwest. There will be the ongoing risk of thundery outbreaks too, especially in the south or southeast. Temperatures are likely to gradually recover to be near normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm or even hot spells, especially in the south or southeast. There are weak signals for more settled conditions towards the end of the period, but confidence for this is currently very low.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

A very disappointing update from MetO there. Thankfully they are usually useless so paying no attention to what they say.

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BBC monthly outlook

Monday 19 June—Sunday 25 June
High pressure is in control

We start this week with hot and sunny weather across the south of the UK and temperatures around 30ºC for many. In the north, across Scotland and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland we have cooler air moving in along with a band of cloud and some patchy rain. This cloud and rain will pull away from the UK by Tuesday and then mid-week it will be replaced by showers from the west. We won't all see these showers though and southern parts of England and Wales may remain completely dry all week. By this point temperatures will be dipping into the low-twenties. Ending the week we'll see a weather front approaching from the northwest bringing cloud and rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland. It's slow progress as this front approaches. England and Wales will remain dry and with warm air being pulled in from the continent, temperatures here look set to climb again. As often seems to be the case, as the weekend approaches, so does the rain and most of us will see some unsettled weather by Sunday. It's worth a mention that for much of this week, both UV and pollen levels are either high or very high.

Monday 26 June—Sunday 2 July
A bit of variety

With high pressure receding away to the near continent, the weather will certainly be more changeable than the previous week. It looks as though we'll get a few showers spreading right across the UK but we'll get some warm and dry days too. It's going to be one of those weeks where you'll need to keep up to date with the forecast fairly often. As pressure begins to build again to the west we'll see more settled weather coming to the fore. This should gradually spread to all parts allowing temperatures to build once more. As this happens we may well get a few thunderstorms developing, particularly during the evening or overnight.

Monday 3 July—Sunday 16 July
Where do you draw the line?

At this stage there is quite a lot of uncertainty in the forecast with hints of high pressure in the south and low pressure at least nearby in the north. This means that generally speaking the south will be fine and settled and the north will see some windy spells with rain at times. That's not to say the start of July will be a washout across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. There will be some settled, sunny and even warm weather too. In the same vein, saying that the south will see lots of dry weather doesn't mean no rain at all. Rain in the south looks most likely to take the form of large showers and thunderstorms developing through the heat of the day. All this talk of north and south begs another question in this forecast; where does one become the other? Unfortunately this isn't obvious and where the high pressure sits will determine this. Should the high pressure be centred across central France, we could see unsettled conditions permeating as far south as the Midlands. If it's further north, centred over England, we could see the mainly dry, warm weather pushing as far north as the central belt of Scotland.

Next week

Will it be the weather for beach days or board games?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Well the June monsoon typically comes in two stages (beginning & end of month) with a settled warm/hot spell in between...

We look to be seeing that happen now towards the later half of the month and early July..

BUT....

The met have mentioned the on going small chance of hot spells of weather at least in the south & southeast, and at this time of year hot in those regions means +30C heat!

However even average temperatures by early July are in the low 20's (21-23) so still not at all bad..

Warm being mid 20's (24-27C)..

So will be looking at typical day temps ranging between 21-27C over the coming weeks (after a brief cool spell later this week and into next week) with a chance of maybe a few hot days mixed in..

All fairly average looking to me.

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Jun 2017 to Tuesday 4 Jul 2017:

Rather changeable conditions are expected for Sunday and Monday, but confidence in details is low. Northern areas are likely to have sunshine and showers on Sunday with the south probably drier. However, rain may move east of north-eastwards across the UK at times. Cool for most, but warmer in the south. Looking ahead, changeable conditions look likely to prevail, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, or longer spells of rain possible. The showers could be heavy with thunder, especially in the east or southeast, where it is also likely to be driest. It will be rather windy at times with a risk of gales, mainly in the north. Temperatures will be near normal overall with a low chance of very warm conditions returning, into the east or southeast.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 5 Jul 2017 to Wednesday 19 Jul 2017:

A continuation of the rather cool, changeable or unsettled weather looks most likely at first. Warm and largely dry spells of weather can be expected at times, interspersed with more unsettled conditions bringing spells of rain, although drier conditions are most likely in the east. There will be the ongoing risk of thundery outbreaks too, especially in the south or southeast. Temperatures are likely to gradually recover to be near normal for the time of year, perhaps with some very warm spells, especially in the south or southeast. There are weak signals for more settled conditions towards the end of the period, but confidence for this is currently very low.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast