BBC Monthly outlook
Monday 31 July—Sunday 6 August
Change in month, surely a change in weather?
Unfortunately not. Areas of low pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the British Isles during the coming week keeping this very changeable spell of weather going for a wee while longer. The stubborn area of low pressure which was centred to the northwest of Scotland for the latter part of last week and over last weekend will linger on Monday and Tuesday. It will continue to be responsible for a very showery airstream, particularly to the northern half of the UK. So it looks as though Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the most frequent and heaviest showers during the early part of this week with a risk of hail and thunder. Still some showers across England and Wales but fewer than on Sunday with more in the way of sunshine and also feeling warmer. All areas will have a brief respite from the showery conditions on Wednesday morning. However another area of low pressure rushing across the Atlantic will bring a spell of wet and windy weather to all parts later on Wednesday, followed by heavy thundery downpours on Thursday. Then sunshine and further showers on Friday and over next weekend, so once again no prolonged dry weather over this coming week.
Monday 7 August—Sunday 13 August
Where has the high gone?
High pressure is expected to make an appearance as we go into the second week of August but unfortunately it looks like being a pretty weak and feeble affair. This means some drier and brighter weather developing at times next week but the high pressure will quickly be pushed out of the way as another Atlantic area of low pressure brings further spells of wet and windy weather. At least high pressure will stay closer to more southern parts of the British Isles with some drier, brighter and warmer days but even here a spell of wet and windy weather is possible for a time early in the week. Further north there will continue to be a very changeable spell of weather with bands of rain and also drier, brighter weather with some sunshine.
Monday 14 August—Sunday 27 August
Normal service resumes
The signals from all the various weather models point to the last two weeks of August being very close to what we would normally expect at this time of year. Southern and eastern parts of the British Isles will see the best of the drier and brighter weather. We are still likely to see some weather systems pushing in from the Atlantic and they will bring spells of wetter and windier weather especially to western Scotland as well as the north and west of Northern Ireland. Even here some drier, sunny days are expected. The air for much of the time will be coming in from the Atlantic so temperatures always fairly close to or even a little below what we would normally expect during the second half of August.
So as we approach the end of the meteorological summer, it looks like we will end up a fairly typical British summer, never being quite as good as we would like it to be.
Next week
As we head into the meteorological autumn, will we see an Indian summer?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook