Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 14 Jul 2017 to Sunday 23 Jul 2017:

Friday will be largely dry bright and warm, especially in the south, with a few showers in northern and central parts. A more persistent band of rain is likely to arrive in the west later on Friday. Rain or showers are then likely for many on Saturday, although some bright or sunny spells are possible at times too. A generally more mobile, unsettled and at times breezy theme looks set to last through mid July, feeling cooler by day with some chilly nights possible. The coolest weather is most likely in the northwest with sheltered southeastern areas probably having closer to average temperatures. Drier, more settled and warm spells may become more prevalent towards the end of the period.

UK Outlook for Monday 24 Jul 2017 to Monday 7 Aug 2017:

Prolonged dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK, perhaps continuing through early August, although northwestern areas are still likely to remain more changeable at first. There may also be spells of rain or scattered thundery showers at times in the south. Temperatures may be around average in the northwest, in contrast to some warmer spells elsewhere, particularly in the south and east.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

ON THE TURN: Brits to enjoy last day of sunshine before ‘massive change’ brings rain and plunging temperatures – but ‘killer’ heat set to return by the end of the month

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3979841/uk-summer-weather-heatwave-cooler-weather/?utm_source=TWITTER&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SprnklrSUNOrganic&UTMX=Editorial:TheSun:TwImageandlink:Statement:News 

BBC monthly outlook


Monday 10 July—Sunday 16 July
An unsettled week with rain and showers

Monday is set to be a rather unsettled start to the week, as a cold front brings rain to the northwest of the UK. Further southeast it will be somewhat muggy, and here there is a risk of thunderstorms and some heavy downpours. It will turn cooler through the week as a northwesterly flow is established. While we will see some rain and showers at times, there will also be a good deal of dry and fair weather through the week; so it's going to be a bit of a mixed bag, and we could see the odd interruption to play at Wimbledon.

Monday 17 July—Sunday 23 July
More of the same?

Next week looks set to continue with the generally mobile and unsettled theme. Showers and longer spells of rain are likely, these more prevalent in the northwest. Turning breezy with a chance of gales at times in the Highlands and Islands, and remaining on the cool side of average. Drier conditions are more likely in the southeast, but with the increased risk of thunderstorms.

Monday 24 July—Sunday 30 July
A return to warmer weather?

The end of July could see a change back to more settled and drier conditions across much of the UK. With the settled weather may come a build of warmth, particularly in the south and east; however there are still some signals that changeable weather could be more prevalent further north.

Next week

We look ahead to the final month of Summer!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167 

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days
UK Outlook for Sunday 16 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 25 Jul 2017:
Sunday is expected to be rather breezy with a band of rain slowly and erratically sinking southwards throughout the day, becoming patchy in nature as it does so. Southern areas could be very warm and humid. Behind this cooler and fresher conditions should move in from the northwest. Once this rain has cleared away to the southeast, settled conditions are likely to prevail. This will lead to generally dry and fine weather with warm sunshine. However, there may be some rain and stronger winds at times in the northwest. By the end of the period it may turn warmer across the country. However, it is also likely to be quite humid with showers and perhaps some thunder possible across the south at times.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Jul 2017 to Wednesday 9 Aug 2017:
Prolonged dry and warm spells may become more prevalent across much of the UK by the end of July, however there is a risk of thunder at times, especially in the south. Towards the beginning of August a less settled pattern is more likely with northern areas seeing a mixture of sunshine and showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Southern areas will probably stay drier overall, but even here there will be a risk of some rain or showers at times.

Updated: 03:07 on Wed 12 Jul 2017 BST

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 19 Jul 2017 to Friday 28 Jul 2017:

Wednesday will still be very warm in southern and central areas, and probably hot and humid in the southeast. However, heavy thundery showers are likely sometime that day, particularly in the south and west and probably further north later. Thursday and Friday look like being changeable and breezy with wet spells at times and less warm temperatures, though the situation is quite uncertain for that period. There is a chance of some strong winds in the north and west. It looks as though the weather will gradually settle down from next weekend and into next week, with generally drier and brighter weather, especially for southern and central areas. Temperatures are likely to rise again, becoming warm in many central and southern areas, perhaps very warm.

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Jul 2017 to Friday 11 Aug 2017:

Prolonged dry and warm spells are likely to become more prevalent across much of the UK by the end of July, however there is a risk of some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms at times, especially in the south. As we head into August a less settled pattern is more likely with northern areas seeing a mixture of sunshine and showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Southern areas will probably stay drier overall, but even here there will be a risk of some rain or showers at times. Despite the trend towards slightly more unsettled conditions overall, there is a weak signal for warmer than average temperatures to prevail into the middle of August. However, at this range confidence remains low.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 20 Jul 2017 to Saturday 29 Jul 2017:

Rain in the southeast on Thursday. Mostly fine elsewhere, though there is a risk of cloudier conditions in the north and west at times, with the chance of an isolated shower here and there. Northern parts look set to see further outbreaks of rain on Friday, with the wet weather slowly spreading southeastwards through the day. Meanwhile, it will be much brighter across the south of the UK. The north-south split will probably continue through the weekend and into Monday, with more unsettled conditions in the north but more prolonged sunshine in the south. As for the rest of the period, we will most likely see predominantly dry and settled weather, possibly with some warm spells.

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Jul 2017 to Sunday 13 Aug 2017:

Prolonged dry and warm spells are likely to have become more prevalent across much of the UK by the end of July. However, there is a risk of some showers and perhaps some thunderstorms at times, particularly in the south. As we head into August, more changeable conditions are more likely with northern areas seeing a mixture of sunshine and showers or longer outbreaks of rain. Southern areas will probably remain drier overall, but even here there is a risk of some rain or showers at times. Despite the trend towards slightly more unsettled conditions overall, there is a weak signal for warmer than average temperatures to prevail into the middle of August. However, at this range confidence remains low.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 17 July—Sunday 23 July
Two fine days and a thunderstorm!

In a very traditional style, this week is set to fulfil the old summer saying "two fine days and a thunderstorm". Monday and Tuesday will start dry and fine with temperatures building day on day - by Tuesday we could see highs in southeast England approaching 30 Celsius. From late on Tuesday we will start to see thunderstorms approaching from the south and moving north. There will be more thundery showers on Wednesday with the potential for some torrential downpours, though it will still be a very warm day. There is high uncertainty regarding the exact locations of the thunderstorms, but inside the showers there could be some very heavy rain, whereas in the sunnier spells it will feel hot. By the end of the week, though, we will all have a fresher feel with some further outbreaks of rain, especially in the north.

Monday 24 July—Sunday 30 July
Summer set to make a return.

As we look ahead to the end of July, many places should see a continuation of dry, fine and warm weather. Southern parts of the UK are mostly likely to see spells of rain with the chance of heavy, thundery showers pushing north from the near continent. However, the timing and exact location of these potential thunderstorms is very uncertain at this early stage. We are all likely to see temperatures above the seasonal norm through this week, especially overnight, giving some warm and humid nights.

Monday 31 July—Sunday 13 August
A transition on the way mid-month.

At the start of August the dry and settled conditions look likely to continue at first with temperatures still remaining on the warm side. But towards the middle of the month we look likely to make a transition to wetter and windier conditions. This transition is likely to spread in from the northwest, which will start to allow a north-south split to develop. Southern parts are likely to see the best of the drier and brighter weather, whilst northern parts of the UK look favoured to keep more unsettled spells of weather, especially towards the middle of August.

Next week

We look ahead to the final two weeks of summer.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jul 2017 to Monday 31 Jul 2017:

We are likely to see a north and south split in the weather across the United Kingdom during this period, with a broad west north-westerly pattern becoming established. This will bring further bands of rain or showers across the north, but with drier and brighter weather in the south. It is likely to be rather breezy, with stronger winds in the north. Feeling cooler and fresher than of late, with daytime temperatures probably around the average but slightly below at times, particularly in the north. As we look towards the end of the month, there are weak signals for mainly dry and settled conditions across the United Kingdom, with temperatures perhaps returning to slightly warmer than average, with the risk of thundery rain in the south.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Aug 2017 to Tuesday 15 Aug 2017:

The first few days of August are likely to be mainly dry and settled, with temperatures probably slightly warmer than average. However, there remains the risk of some thundery rain in the south, but confidence is low at this stage. Through the early part of August we may see a changeable pattern becoming established across the United Kingdom, with some fine and dry conditions in the south, but also some unsettled weather at times, mainly in the north. There is a reasonable signal for warmer than average temperatures through to mid-August. However, confidence regarding the wind and rain detail at this range remains low.

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Local weather forecast for Solent area on radio for Tuesday night/weds , ....."isolated thundery showers but most will miss them" ??

Local weather forecast for Solent area on radio for Tuesday night/weds , ....."isolated thundery showers but most will miss them" ??

There's not been any forecast/model output that's said any different - isolated thundery showers/storms sounds right. 

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There's not been any forecast/model output that's said any different - isolated thundery showers/storms sounds right. 

 

ok fair comment...I guess I got over excited as I expected a widespread explosion of storms not just the odd one. 

 

There's not been any forecast/model output that's said any different - isolated thundery showers/storms sounds right. 

 

certainly nothing significant to the south of us this morning, so looks like another over hyped event and they were correct in the forecast 

 

 

certainly nothing significant to the south of us this morning, so looks like another over hyped event and they were correct in the forecast 

The forecast thundery showers are for tonight and into Wednesday morning, aren't they?

 

In other "news", the Daily Star front page is predicting a "two-month heatwave" with temperatures of 36C. Hmm.

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In other "news", the Daily Star front page is predicting a "two-month heatwave" with temperatures of 36C. Hmm.

 

Was that for the UK? 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 23 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 1 Aug 2017:

Remaining unsettled, with low pressure dominating the weather across the United Kingdom at the start of this period. This will bring unsettled weather, with showery and windy conditions across the country through the weekend and most likely into next week. There is now a much lower probability than previous of a more prolonged settled spell of weather developing through the remainder of the period. We are likely to see a changeable conditions, with a broadly west to northwesterly pattern becoming established, bringing a mixture of sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain, mainly in the north, where winds will be strongest. Generally rather cool, especially in the northwest, but temperatures are likely to recover to some extent, with some warmer than average temperatures at times through to mid-August.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Aug 2017 to Wednesday 16 Aug 2017:

There are weak signals throughout this period. However, we are likely to see some fine, dry spells of weather across the United Kingdom, but also some unsettled weather at times, mainly in the north. Temperatures are likely to recover to some extent with warmer than average temperatures at times through to mid-August, but cooler conditions at times, especially in the northwest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

There is now a much lower probability than previous of a more prolonged settled spell of weather developing through the remainder of the period.

 

 

Also I wish they would get somebody to proof-read these things before they go live! They are always riddled with errors.

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Jul 2017 to Friday 4 Aug 2017:

Generally unsettled throughout the remainder of July and into the start of August with spells of rain and strong winds crossing the country from west to east. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly in the northwest and here there is also the chance of gales at times too. In between there will be some drier and brighter spells, however there will be also be a scattering of heavy showers, again these most frequent and heaviest in the northwest. The chance of any longer drier and more settled spells is limited and only the southeast of the country is likely to be drier overall. On the whole temperatures will be close to or slightly below normal for the time of year, with the coolest temperatures likely in the west.

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Aug 2017 to Saturday 19 Aug 2017:

There is low confidence in the forecast during August. At first we are likely to see a continuation of changeable weather with further showers or longer spells of rain, accompanied by some spells of stronger winds. Southern and eastern parts will perhaps become drier and more settled at times. However, after a rather cool start to the month, temperatures are likely to recover and become closer to average or slightly above as we head through the month.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Jul 2017 to Saturday 5 Aug 2017:

Some rather unsettled weather looks set to affect the UK with often cloudy conditions with heavy rain moving across the country at times. A mixture of sunny spells and showers between the heavier spells of rain looks likely. Temperatures will be cooler generally, especially in any rain or showers but some warmer spells also. The unsettled or changeable theme looks likely to remain through the end of July, with north-western areas seeing the heaviest rain and showers and stronger winds. South-eastern areas are likely to be drier through the period, however a more prolonged spell of settled weather looks unlikely at this point. Signals in early August look very weak however there is increasing confidence for a continuation of changeable weather influenced by the Atlantic.

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Aug 2017 to Sunday 20 Aug 2017:

Despite rather mixed or weak signals for this period, the most likely scenario is for a changeable Atlantic driven airflow across the UK. This is likely to bring showers or longer spells of rain, and chance of strong winds at times. Southern and eastern areas are most likely to see periods of more settled weather. Temperatures may also recover to some extent through August, particularly in the south, to average or perhaps above.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Monday 24 July—Sunday 30 July

July set to end on a Low

As we go into the last week of July, there are some typical British summer weather conditions on the way with drier, warmer days but rain never too far away. After the very showery conditions of this past weekend, the early part of the week does look to be drier and brighter with fewer showers and a lot of dry weather. Still some showers over eastern England on Monday otherwise many places will be dry with sunny spells and warm in the sunshine too. These conditions continuing on Tuesday with temperatures not too far from normal for late July and with light winds, it will feel very pleasant in the sunshine. All change for Wednesday, a trough of low pressure will bring a band of rain eastwards across the country during the day.

The rain will be persistent and heavy for a time but moving through relatively quickly. Thursday will see a return to drier and brighter weather, some sunshine and fresh westerly winds. Friday will also see a lot of dry weather with sunny spells but all change again in the west later. As we head towards next weekend, it does look as though another area of low pressure will make its way across the Atlantic towards the British Isles, bringing another spell of wet weather. It will also be windy at times with gales in the north.

Monday 31 July—Sunday 6 August

New month, same old weather

Further areas of low pressure will keep the unsettled theme going into the first week of August. There will be further bands of rain crossing the country with drier and brighter interludes in between. The most prolonged and heaviest rainfall will be across northwestern areas where it will be windy at times too. It will be driest and brightest for longest across more southeastern areas. No heatwave during this period, the air coming in from the Atlantic will keep temperatures close to or even a little below what we would normally expect in early August.

Monday 7 August—Sunday 20 August

High pressure fights back

As we move into the second week of August, there are indications of high pressure beginning to build close to the British Isles. This would suggest longer spells of drier weather with large gaps between the areas of low pressure. Also the areas of low pressure are expected to pass close to northwest Scotland bringing further rain at times here and some rain extending further south at times too. The driest, brightest weather is expected to be over southeast England where temperatures will be on the warm side.

So the weather pattern as we go through August is one we would normally expect to see at this time of year.

Next week

As we head towards the end of the meteorological summer, any hot summer weather on the horizon?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

High risk of 'unprecedented' winter downpours - Met Office

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40683302?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central