I'll not start a new thread yet, but I've just posted the first look at winter 2017/18 here:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3898&title=Winter+2017%2f18+weather

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Jul 2017 to Tuesday 8 Aug 2017:

A generally unsettled spell of weather is expected on Sunday and Monday with a mixture of sunshine and showers for most, and possibly a spell of more prolonged rain in the southeast. Heavy showers and strong winds are most likely in the north west with a risk of hail and thunder, however winds are likely to be lighter elsewhere. The unsettled regime looks set to continue until early August with further frontal systems affecting the UK, interspersed with clearer or perhaps showery weather and some unseasonably windy conditions across many areas. Temperatures should be around normal to cool, with perhaps only the far south east seeing some warmer conditions at times. There are no signals for any significant change from these unsettled conditions during the period.
UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Aug 2017 to Wednesday 23 Aug 2017:

Changeable or unsettled conditions are likely at first with periods of rain interspersed with clearer or showery weather. There are some signals for high pressure to build which would allow for more settled conditions and rising temperatures, mostly likely in the south. By the middle of August signals become mixed and confidence is low. However, the preferred solution is for northwestern parts to stay largely changeable, with drier and brighter spells of weather becoming more prevalent in the southeast. That being said, all areas could see showers or longer spells of rain at times.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast%3C/div%3E%3C/div%3E 

In other words they really don't have a clue due to the volatility of the models. It does seem at least for the time being summer is on hold countrywide to early August ..... interestingly the media have gone quiet on weather related articles recently

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Aug 2017 to Thursday 10 Aug 2017:

Remaining unsettled with sunny spells and showers through Tuesday. The heaviest and most frequent showers affecting the north and west, with much of the south staying largely dry, with sunny spells. We are likely to see a low pressure system push in from the Atlantic on Wednesday, bringing a spell of wet and windy weather to some western parts of the United Kingdom, spreading to all parts on Thursday. Thereafter, we are likely to see a return to sunshine and showers, most frequent and heaviest in the northwest. Into the weekend and early next week, we may begin to see conditions becoming more settled across the UK, with high pressure building from the southwest, with a predominately north-westerly flow. Temperatures will generally be around normal to rather cool throughout.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Aug 2017 to Friday 25 Aug 2017:

There are increasing signals for high pressure to build during this period, which would allow for more settled conditions across the United Kingdom, with a predominately west to north-westerly flow becoming established. However, there will still be the risk of spells of rain or showers, mainly in the north, but overall a good deal of dry weather with some sunshine, especially in the south. Temperatures generally near normal by day, but potentially rather cool at night. By the middle of August signals become mixed, with low confidence. On balance though, we are most likely to see a northwest/southeast split in weather conditions across the United Kingdom, with some rain or showers in the northwest and drier conditions with some sunshine in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 1 Aug 2017 to Thursday 10 Aug 2017:

Remaining unsettled with sunny spells and showers through Tuesday. The heaviest and most frequent showers affecting the north and west, with much of the south staying largely dry, with sunny spells. We are likely to see a low pressure system push in from the Atlantic on Wednesday, bringing a spell of wet and windy weather to some western parts of the United Kingdom, spreading to all parts on Thursday. Thereafter, we are likely to see a return to sunshine and showers, most frequent and heaviest in the northwest. Into the weekend and early next week, we may begin to see conditions becoming more settled across the UK, with high pressure building from the southwest, with a predominately north-westerly flow. Temperatures will generally be around normal to rather cool throughout.

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Aug 2017 to Friday 25 Aug 2017:

There are increasing signals for high pressure to build during this period, which would allow for more settled conditions across the United Kingdom, with a predominately west to north-westerly flow becoming established. However, there will still be the risk of spells of rain or showers, mainly in the north, but overall a good deal of dry weather with some sunshine, especially in the south. Temperatures generally near normal by day, but potentially rather cool at night. By the middle of August signals become mixed, with low confidence. On balance though, we are most likely to see a northwest/southeast split in weather conditions across the United Kingdom, with some rain or showers in the northwest and drier conditions with some sunshine in the southeast.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Sounds a bit more promising.

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Accuweather,s take on prospects.

 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 2 Aug 2017 to Friday 11 Aug 2017:

An area of low pressure will bring rain and strong winds to the west on Wednesday, before this gradually spreads eastwards during Thursday. The heaviest rain is likely to be across the northwest, whilst further south and east there will be smaller amounts of rain. Thereafter, it is likely to remain unsettled across the UK, with a mixture of sunshine and showers, these heaviest and most frequent in the northwest with the risk of thunder. It will remain windy for most with the chance of gales in exposed parts of the west and northwest. It may start to turn drier in the south towards the end of this period. Temperatures will stay close to normal for early August, but it will feel cooler in showers and stronger winds.

UK Outlook for Saturday 12 Aug 2017 to Saturday 26 Aug 2017:

As we head through second week of August, there are signs that we will see drier and more settled weather with high pressure becoming more widely established across the UK. This will bring a break from the previously unsettled weather with longer spells of drier and brighter weather. However, there is still the chance that spells of rain or showers will affect the north at times. With more sunshine, temperatures should become a little warmer than normal for some, but with a west or northwesterly wind we could see some cooler nights. Thereafter, confidence reduces significantly, perhaps with a return to more unsettled conditions in the north and west. The south may hold on to drier and brighter weather, but even here there is the risk of showers.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Aug 2017 to Sunday 13 Aug 2017:

Friday and Saturday is likely to see a continuation of sunshine and showers for many areas, with the showers heaviest and most frequent in the northwest with the risk of thunder. There is also a low risk of some more prolonged rain moving into the far south for a time. Thereafter it looks likely to remain fairly changeable across the UK, with spells of rain or showers mixed with some drier and brighter interludes. The north and west are likely to see the most frequent rain, with the south and east seeing the best of any drier weather. Temperatures will stay close to normal for August, but it will feel cooler in showers and stronger winds, however in the drier and sunnier interludes it will feel rather warm.

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Aug 2017 to Monday 28 Aug 2017:

As we head into the middle of August, there are some signs that southern areas may see a greater frequency of drier and sunnier spells, but elsewhere is likely to remain on the changeable side with bands of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures are likely to remain on the cool side for many, but southern areas are likely to feel warmer in the drier and sunnier spells. Later in August, confidence reduces significantly, but a northwest-southeast split is probable, with the northwest seeing the most frequent wet weather, with the southeast seeing the best of the drier and brighter interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

MetO have updated their MRF to the 28th August and it isn't pretty.

Basically, if you are north of Birmingham its game over and even for southerners any settled weather will be fletting, no mention of the nationwide mid month high pressure and a mobile westerly flow dominates instead.

Oh dear.

Andy

The best news we have heard so far, so warmth and high pressure on the way. 

BBC Monthly outlook

Monday 31 July—Sunday 6 August
Change in month, surely a change in weather?

Unfortunately not. Areas of low pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the British Isles during the coming week keeping this very changeable spell of weather going for a wee while longer. The stubborn area of low pressure which was centred to the northwest of Scotland for the latter part of last week and over last weekend will linger on Monday and Tuesday. It will continue to be responsible for a very showery airstream, particularly to the northern half of the UK. So it looks as though Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the most frequent and heaviest showers during the early part of this week with a risk of hail and thunder. Still some showers across England and Wales but fewer than on Sunday with more in the way of sunshine and also feeling warmer. All areas will have a brief respite from the showery conditions on Wednesday morning. However another area of low pressure rushing across the Atlantic will bring a spell of wet and windy weather to all parts later on Wednesday, followed by heavy thundery downpours on Thursday. Then sunshine and further showers on Friday and over next weekend, so once again no prolonged dry weather over this coming week.

Monday 7 August—Sunday 13 August
Where has the high gone?

High pressure is expected to make an appearance as we go into the second week of August but unfortunately it looks like being a pretty weak and feeble affair. This means some drier and brighter weather developing at times next week but the high pressure will quickly be pushed out of the way as another Atlantic area of low pressure brings further spells of wet and windy weather. At least high pressure will stay closer to more southern parts of the British Isles with some drier, brighter and warmer days but even here a spell of wet and windy weather is possible for a time early in the week. Further north there will continue to be a very changeable spell of weather with bands of rain and also drier, brighter weather with some sunshine.

Monday 14 August—Sunday 27 August
Normal service resumes

The signals from all the various weather models point to the last two weeks of August being very close to what we would normally expect at this time of year. Southern and eastern parts of the British Isles will see the best of the drier and brighter weather. We are still likely to see some weather systems pushing in from the Atlantic and they will bring spells of wetter and windier weather especially to western Scotland as well as the north and west of Northern Ireland. Even here some drier, sunny days are expected. The air for much of the time will be coming in from the Atlantic so temperatures always fairly close to or even a little below what we would normally expect during the second half of August.

So as we approach the end of the meteorological summer, it looks like we will end up a fairly typical British summer, never being quite as good as we would like it to be.

Next week

As we head into the meteorological autumn, will we see an Indian summer?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook 

Latest GFS shows not a bad weekend coming up for most...after that anyone's guess as it has low pressure developing to the SE and deepening eventually moving north...bring with it by the looks of things some unpleasant weather for eastern counties

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Aug 2017 to Monday 14 Aug 2017:

Saturday is likely to see a continuation of sunshine and showers for many areas, with the showers heaviest and most frequent in the north. Sunday may then after a cool start turn drier across the UK, but rain may move into the far west later in the day. Thereafter a north-south split is likely to develop, with further spells of wind and rain affecting the north of the UK, whereas southern areas seeing more in the way of settled weather, especially compared to of late. Temperatures will stay close to normal for August, but it will feel cooler in the rain and stronger winds in the north, however in the sunnier interludes across the south it will feel rather warm.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Aug 2017 to Tuesday 29 Aug 2017:

As we head into the middle of August, there are some signs that a more generally settled period of weather is likely, although some spells of rain or showers are still likely, especially across northern areas. The best of the driest and warmest weather is likely across the south and southwest, with elsewhere seeing temperatures around average for the middle of August. Later in August, confidence reduces significantly, but a northwest-southeast split is probable, with the northwest seeing the most frequent wet weather, with the southeast seeing the best of the drier and brighter interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Fantastic news for our summer today as Rao and Madden have predicted a washout for the rest of summer. This after they forecasted a nationwide heatwave just two weeks ago. Presumably the HUGE SOLAR FLARE didn't materialise? 

Thought the ensembles were looking a little better of late! 

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Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Aug 2017 to Tuesday 15 Aug 2017:

Sunshine and scattered showers are likely for most on Sunday, with some more persistent rain reaching the west of the UK later on. This should ease and clear through during Monday to leave many places with a dry spell of weather during the middle part of that week, with light winds and temperatures near normal. Towards the following weekend things look more likely to turn changeable once again, especially across the north and west, with rain moving in. However, the south and east of the UK could stay mostly dry, perhaps even a little warmer than average. By the middle of August a generally more settled spell of weather is likely; the driest and warmest conditions across the south and southwest of the UK.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Aug 2017 to Wednesday 30 Aug 2017:

From the middle of August, the more generally settled period of weather should continue, although some spells of rain or showers are still likely, especially across northern areas. The best of the driest and warmest weather will remain across the south and southwest of the UK, with most other places having temperatures around average for the middle of August. Later in the month, confidence reduces significantly, but a northwest-southeast split is probable. This would result in the northwest seeing the most frequent wet weather, and the southeast seeing the best of the drier and brighter interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Aug 2017 to Tuesday 15 Aug 2017:

Sunshine and scattered showers are likely for most on Sunday, with some more persistent rain reaching the west of the UK later on. This should ease and clear through during Monday to leave many places with a dry spell of weather during the middle part of that week, with light winds and temperatures near normal. Towards the following weekend things look more likely to turn changeable once again, especially across the north and west, with rain moving in. However, the south and east of the UK could stay mostly dry, perhaps even a little warmer than average. By the middle of August a generally more settled spell of weather is likely; the driest and warmest conditions across the south and southwest of the UK.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Aug 2017 to Wednesday 30 Aug 2017:

From the middle of August, the more generally settled period of weather should continue, although some spells of rain or showers are still likely, especially across northern areas. The best of the driest and warmest weather will remain across the south and southwest of the UK, with most other places having temperatures around average for the middle of August. Later in the month, confidence reduces significantly, but a northwest-southeast split is probable. This would result in the northwest seeing the most frequent wet weather, and the southeast seeing the best of the drier and brighter interludes.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Aug 2017 to Thursday 17 Aug 2017:

Remaining unsettled on Tuesday with scattered showers, possibly heavy and thundery in places, although it should become drier and brighter from the southwest later. From midweek onwards high pressure is likely to be dominant across at least the south bringing some drier and sunnier conditions here, however northern areas are likely to see some further rain at times, with a risk some of this occasionally spreading further south. After a cool start to the week, temperatures are likely to recover to near average, and perhaps turning warm across the southeast. Towards the middle of the month the north-south split is likely to continue, with the north continuing to remain changeable, with rain or showers at times, whilst the south should see the best of the drier weather.

UK Outlook for Friday 18 Aug 2017 to Friday 1 Sep 2017:

During the second half of August, we are likely to see a northwest-southeast split in the weather across the United Kingdom. This would result in the north continuing to see some rain and strong winds at times, whilst the south should see drier and brighter weather. Temperatures will generally be around average for the time of year, but perhaps turning warmer in the south at times. There is a small chance of some very warm air being drawn northwards into the southeast, perhaps accompanied by thunderstorms.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

^ Interesting hints of plumes at the end of the month there!

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A very good article in today's Times Newspaper by Paul Simons backing up Brian's weather forecast projections on the TWO front page for an improvement in our weather later next week

Met office update

UK Outlook for Thursday 10 Aug 2017 to Saturday 19 Aug 2017:

Many areas should have a settled start to this period with dry weather and sunny spells dominating, although showery rain and windy weather could affect some eastern parts at first. Through Friday, it will turn cloudier from the west as rain spreads eastwards. It is likely to become largely dry over southern areas by the weekend with spells of sunshine but it will be cloudier further north with rain or showers. This rain could move south at times to affect more central areas. By the end of the period, northwestern areas are likely to be cloudiest with rain and stronger winds at times with best of the fine weather in the southeast. After a cool start to the period, it should turn warmer in the south in any sunshine.

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Aug 2017 to Sunday 3 Sep 2017:

During the second half of August, we are likely to see a north-south split in the weather. This will bring changeable conditions across the northwest, with spells of rain and strong winds at times, whilst the south and east should be drier and more settled. As a result, temperatures may often be warmer in the south with a low chance of it turning very warm and thundery across some southeastern areas. In contrast, temperatures will remain close to normal across the north.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office update

UK Outlook for Friday 11 Aug 2017 to Sunday 20 Aug 2017:

Many areas should have a dry day on Friday with dry weather and sunny spells. It will turn cloudier from the west as outbreaks of light rain spreads eastwards. Rain will clear across all parts over the weekend, leaving largely dry conditions in the south, but showers across the northwest. Winds will also freshen, possibly with gales in the far northwest. Into the following week, many places will probably see largely settled conditions, particularly in the south. Northern areas are more likely to see a mixture of settled weather interspersed with stronger winds and showers or bands of rain. Temperatures will vary around normal for the time of year with warm spells possible in the south at times.

UK Outlook for Monday 21 Aug 2017 to Monday 4 Sep 2017:

During the later part of August, we are likely to see a northwest-southeast split in the weather. This will bring changeable conditions across the northwest, with spells of rain and strong winds at times, whilst the south and east should be drier and more settled. As a result, temperatures may often be warmer in the south with a low chance of it turning very warm and thundery across some southeastern areas. In contrast, temperatures will remain close to normal across the north. By early September, confidence is very low, but a continuation of similar conditions looks more likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast