For all the talk of the high being too far south, the core of the cold pool (such as it is) actually hits the northern UK on the latest GFS.

I will take encouragement from the fact that the Met Office see a blocked picture right out until March, so the GFS "let's blow the block back to the Black Sea" FI shenanigans are pretty unlikely.

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Slightly off-topic  but the next Buchan Cold Spell is from 7th to 14th Feb

Interesting ...

Some info here - http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/179

 

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Worrying signs seeing these 'warm outliers' suddenly start appearing.

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Again we are back to south westerly winds - Where is the northern blocking, the Greenland HP or Scandi High? - Just seems like the jet strengthens and we never seem to get rid of the Azores HP which isn't helping?

 

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Worrying signs seeing these 'warm outliers' suddenly start appearing.

 

Where are these warm outlier of which you speak? Or do you mean the ECM?

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Using the BBC Weather site to see the MOGREPS spread shows a massive amount of uncertainty still.
For my location the spread for a week today is for maxima between -1C and +10C, and minima between -10C and +4C!

It's giving the most likely figure as a high of 8C and a low of 0C, with winds veering from southerly to southwesterly, so it would appear MOGREPS isn't really on board with the easterly, at any rate.

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Again we are back to south westerly winds - Where is the northern blocking, the Greenland HP or Scandi High? - Just seems like the jet strengthens and we never seem to get rid of the Azores HP which isn't helping?

 

Yet again we still have the Azores HP clinging around 250 miles of the coast of Portugal - I know this is FI but where is the northern blocking/Greenland, Iceland HP or Scandi - surely as the met office said that we are in for a colder second half of the month the signs look very weak:

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The ENS shows a cool down and Meto MRF agrees.. but only for a few days.

The northern arm of the jet takes hold and helps place a strong AH in its default position. 

Into the freezer and snowfest looks like wishful thinking but I suppose there is a chance and a long way to go yet.

 

Interesting how in the previous attempts I dreamt that I would wake up and these easterly's would be downgraded and I dreamt it would happen last night and woke up this morning to see it has. - Dream has come true 4 times in a row now. - A total nightmare scenario.

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Lets compare the GFS 00 run to the 6z run in the mid range, northern hemisphere view and they are completely different. Still lots of ups and downs to come I think.

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Worrying signs seeing these 'warm outliers' suddenly start appearing.

That's always the risk of the block drafts southeast wards.

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Op no longer the cold outlier it was earlier in the week.  More in line with the Mean more or less.

 

The op goes Mild though and gives the impression that things have swung over to the mild forecast. Alot of scatter and still a few runs going quite cold tell another story though.

 

Typical setup really when considering a block, was quite surprised we had a clear as run as we did on the Op run, things looked a little too easy.

 

I expect some more wobbles over the coming days.

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Hmmmm. Now the 6z ens are out I'd describe them as a bit warmer than the 00z set. There's less cold options in the initial cold shot albeit still 5 or so and a bit more in the way of milder options after that. Very late in the run and more cold appears. In no way a 'major flip' though. A look at the T2m temps shows cold or chilly favoured for most of the run and pressure is generally high throughout, with the block staying close to us.

Not the greatest 6z run but not terrible. More runs needed and all that 🙂

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The 06z GFS is merely a development of yesterdays 06z, and if anything is an upgrade for cold lovers. its simply not realistic to compare with yesterdays 12z or 18z which were also an upgrade on their particular forerunners. I don't know why there are such differences, possibly quantity of data or changes in parameters, but you can only compare like with like. Don't give up on the beast just yet.

On a different note it is interesting that the GFSP has never really got on board with the easterly at all. It seems to be generally more progressive than the existing GFS model, from what I have seen in recent weeks. Given that a common criticism of GFS is that it is too progressive, this seems a bit of a step backwards!

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Hmmmm. Now the 6z ens are out I'd describe them as a bit warmer than the 00z set. There's less cold options in the initial cold shot albeit still 5 or so and a bit more in the way of milder options after that. Very late in the run and more cold appears. In no way a 'major flip' though. A look at the T2m temps shows cold or chilly favoured for most of the run and pressure is generally high throughout, with the block staying close to us.

Not the greatest 6z run but not terrible. More runs needed and all that :-)

Quite a big flip from last night's 18z ensembles though unfortunately. I'm certainly less optimistic again.

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Quite a big flip from last night's 18z ensembles though unfortunately. I'm certainly less optimistic again.

quite, and anything more meaningful in terms of real cold is put back into FI. I can't remember a winter in which we have been teased as much as we have with eye candy FI charts that simply melt as they approach real time. 

 

That's not what the label on the graph says.

I still say it is the SD. Very often you will sections of the op standing outside either side of the grey band. If it represented the full spread, they black op line would never deviate outside of it.

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The EC46 is out and not suprisingly it has flipped cold in the short to mid term.

Between the 8th - 18th February temperatures in central southern England are generally 3 - 3.5c below normal. These temperatures recover to average from the 23rd February and then remain close to average for the remander of the run.

In Scotland it is a similar but the return to average is from the 21st..suggesting the block sinks south. 

A big evening coming up..which way will it go. 

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The EC46 is out and not suprisingly it has flipped cold in the short to mid term.

Between the 8th - 18th February temperatures in central southern England are generally 3 - 3.5c below normal. These temperatures recover to average from the 23rd February and then remain close to average for the remander of the run.

In Scotland it is a similar but the return to average is from the 21st..suggesting the block sinks south. 

A big evening coming up..which way will it go. 

 

Woudnt be surprised if the charts are going on a very long detour back to what we had the other week.  Cold slack southerly/south easterly, with oocasional very cold air moving north in pockets introducing raw days, but marginal to snow.  Pattern has already shown itself twice this year, and wouldnt be surprised if that is our pattern again this time round.

 

Nice to see the GFS making an effort in FI to keep us all on our toes though.... the cheeky scamp it is...

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