The big picture looks relatively clear but the details are uncertain. Onwards...

 

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ECM still has promise of potential retrogression. GFS ensembles are firming up on a warm-up by the end of the month.

And Fergie says the ECM long ranger also goes for a warm-up by then. So I'll be hoping we get some clear skies under the high and some nice wintry frosty conditions while it lasts!

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ECM still has promise of potential retrogression. GFS ensembles are firming up on a warm-up by the end of the month.

And Fergie says the ECM long ranger also goes for a warm-up by then. So I'll be hoping we get some clear skies under the high and some nice wintry frosty conditions while it lasts!

The next week and a half looks dry and cold in the South, possibly very cold at times in the far South East with the chance of the odd flurry. Beyond that, the ens do seem to point to a flatter pattern with a much more mobile regime. But it's so far out and neither the GEFS or the Euro ENS have exactly covered themselves in glory in the last month or so.

If we get a cold week next week and for a while thereafter, I'd be more than happy with an early spring 

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If it wasn't for that tweet about be extended ECM suite I would be pretty happy with the output. But if the ECM long ranger negates the promise of the ECM 10-day run then that's a shame.

Still, as Iain F says, low confidence.

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UKMO looking dry and settled

If it wasn't for that tweet about be extended ECM suite I would be pretty happy with the output. But if the ECM long ranger negates the promise of the ECM 10-day run then that's a shame.

Still, as Iain F says, low confidence.

I wouldn't put any faith in any of the EC 46 or long range model output, all of them have been pish poor this winter.

Looking at the De Bilt ens, ECM is having a major wobble about putting Nederland in the freezer. A significant number of members now suggesting it may be brief or not happen at all.

But GFS now looking reasonably confident of at least 5 days in the freezer.

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Looking at the De Bilt ens, ECM is having a major wobble about putting Nederland in the freezer. A significant number of members now suggesting it may be brief or not happen at all.

 

 

I wonder what synoptics they are showing? The high would have to sink a LOT from the op run to let mild air over the top into Holland, ao that seems puzzling.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011306/gfsnh-1-126.png?6

just a glancing blow from the cold uppers before they drian out

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011306/gfsnh-1-126.png?6

just a glancing blow from the cold uppers before they drian out

No, that's a misreading of the charts.  The 06z builds the high to our east and the cold air oozes slowly but steadily west and north through Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we have a developing high to the west and the potential for a renewed Arctic outflow from the north by next weekend - although that's far from certain.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.gif 
Looks full of potential how everyone would have dreamed of this last year

GFS 06Z at 216 hours - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

not a million miles away from ECM 0z http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

(I know the hours don't compare exactly - my bad)

 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017011306/gfsnh-1-126.png?6

just a glancing blow from the cold uppers before they drian out

 

I would take that glancing blow down here all day, oh as I look out of the window at the snow falling.

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I posted yesterday that i was worried about the potential cold easterly spell being shortened  by a squeeze at both ends.

Todays meto forecast has a statement that colder air may get into the SE on Tuesday.

Presumably that is based on the 84h fax shown below which shows a cold front beginning to track west in the south but a warm front continuing to move east in the north.Looking at GFS ,ECM and GEFS it looks like the 17th/18th by the time an easterly flow is establishes.At the other end the easterly seems to collapse by Saturday/ Sunday so we are looking at a 3/4 day easterly.

Of course there maybe wintry possibilities in the breakdown Iceland/GH and even more snow opportunities However by 240h there are also zonal ENS starting to appear.

 

 

 

 

 

I posted yesterday that i was worried about the potential cold easterly spell being shortened  by a squeeze at both ends.

Todays meto forecast has a statement that colder air may get into the SE on Tuesday.

Presumably that is based on the 84h fax shown below which shows a cold front beginning to track west in the south but a warm front continuing to move east in the north.Looking at GFS ,ECM and GEFS it looks like the 17th/18th by the time an easterly flow is establishes.At the other end the easterly seems to collapse by Saturday/ Sunday so we are looking at a 3/4 day easterly.

Of course there maybe wintry possibilities in the breakdown Iceland/GH and even more snow opportunities However by 240h there are also zonal ENS starting to appear.

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datukgfshires.aspx?display=fax&model=fax

That looks positive with the cold air making good progress Westward but I can't quite tie it in to the FAX chart above for Tuesday which shows the cold front no further West than London.

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A Great Looking 06z Run IMO and a trend I hope the models will pick up on rising heights in Greenland will be the only way we can get really cold uppers at the moment.

I think this could be something to look out for.

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Maybe model fatigue is setting in but I'm quite surprised there aren't more comments about the 06GFS - now it's our friend again.
There is enough of a cold low dp continental feed moving into the S and SW Thurs/Fri to set off channel snow showers.
Then into extended we have a much firmer push from the North as the high quickly retrogresses West. -13 at 850 into Scotland is not to be sniffed at.
Come on chaps - it's far from over and many have had or are having snow falling as I type (not here obviously lol)

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Pretty good agreement in recent model runs for a week of fairly quiet, cold and dry weather before things could become interesting again towards next weekend, with the possibility of a Greenland High forming. A long way off of course, but the potential of a very cold, snowy, and perhaps prolonged blast from the N/NE is certainly there in this morning's runs.

Will be fascinating to see how this plays out 

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Daytime highs for Friday look cold.

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Control so far

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2017011306/gens-0-1-174.png

 

Again signs of a GH

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