Really difficult this month but I'll go for 3.75C without a great deal of conviction!

Hello everybody

I would be willing to put time in to posting predictions and posting results at months end. I wouldn't be able to give graphs like GW has done brilliantly but would post as follows: Here's an example from page 1 of this thread(first 10 names);

JANUARY CET Prediction

ARTzemen: 5.56

Bolty:       3.1

Gavin 😨   4.1

Cowman:  2.1

Moomin:  -0.6

Rob K:      2.4

roger63:   3.8

Deep po:  3.0

Roonie:    2.7

schmee:  1.9

At months end I would post the cumulative results in a column also(1st of each month) I have surplus time so results would be always published on the first and predictions on the 2nd of each month. This would be to keep the thread organised and interesting. I am more than happy to spend the time calculating results and posting predictions if I have everyone's support. 

 Many thanks for reading, CET.

5.0C please.

3.5c please

I will go for 4.4C

As mentioned previously I have been very busy this month and decided I needed a proper break over Christmas so am rather behind. There has been plenty of the usual winter nonsense going on in the model thread to no doubt keep you all entertained in my absence. 

Everything will be brought up to date in the next 48 hours. After that I will endeavour to keep on top of things going forward but let's see how it goes. I am hoping I can start the new year with a clean slate and stay ahead of the curve. But if that proves to be unrealistic then I will welcome some assistance.

If you wish to make a prediction for the annual CET for 2017 please feel free to add it to this thread. I think it makes sense to keep everything CET related in one thread going forward. We can roll forward the predictions and latest charts for the annual numbers in the new thread each month.

No changes to the rules for the competition in 2017. The current system seems to be working well unless anyone thinks otherwise or has any suggestions.

The contingency planners forecast is linked - suggests an increased probability of a cooler than normal January but you knew that already.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf

Jan mean CET

1971-2000 4.2C

1981-2010 4.4C

1996-2015 4.6C

Apart from 2010 and 1997 we have not had a sub 3C January since 1987. But will this be the year? Personally I doubt it. While the synoptic setup this year is very different to the last few winters, the strong westerly QBO is I think a key factor in helping to keep the really cold weather away from us. Eastern Europe is probably the place to be if you want severe cold. That said I am sure there will be some brief cold snaps for us in the next couple of months.

Going to go on the record as punting for an at least cold and dry situation to dominate for the first 10 days or so with nights below freezing and days of 4-5*C, after which I'm hoping signs of vortex disruption plus possible tropical forcing events will allow for at least similarly low temps to be retained - or recovered quickly after a brief milder interlude.

What's alarming is I was thinking very similar with respect to last month. At least this time we're not relying on a chaotic weak vortex state that could recover at short notice!


So I'm being bold(ish) and going with a fairly low Jan estimate of 3.2*C, for better or worse.

For the 2017 annual CET, a feeling in my bones about next winter is offset by vague signals for spring... 10.21 is my fairly boring guesstimate!

Thanks for everything GW 

Great to see you back GW!  Hope you're refreshed after your break.  4.15 Jan  please and 10.59.

Thanks

WI

5.1c please GW 

3.8c

4.1C please

10.59 for the annual CET Thread please..

Will go for 4.6c Jan CET and 10.48c annual CET please

Can I try 2.2c please