Annual CET competition – August update
We are now two-thirds of the way through the year and it is still very tight in the competition so anything can still happen. We do have a new leader this month.
The predictions in August were generally excellent. The average error for the 62 people left in the competition was just 0.53C beating the 0.68C in April. We lost just one person this month which was Johnny25.
After a spot on prediction for August Nemi now leads the table and is the only person with a cumulative error less than 7C.
Remarkably Taylor1740 has not been outside the top three all year and just stays ahead of Norseman in third on count back.
The Professional climbs two places to fourth, the third time this year in that position. Stormchaser is a non-mover in fifth.
Easterly Beasterly and Edicius81 both climb one place to sixth and seventh respectively for their highest positions of the year.
The biggest faller in the top 10 this month is once again Weathermac down three to eighth after spending three consecutive months in first place earlier in the year.
Roonie and Charmhills swap places in rounding out the top 10.
Further down Hungry Tiger and redmoons reach their highest positions of the year in 19th and 25th respectively.
There are only three double digit movers this month, nouska down 12 to 27th, moomin75 down 15 to 53rd and ARTzeman down 19 at 56th.
A very interesting stat is that markwells in 61st place has made four predictions this year within 0.5C of the actual CET (all of which has been in the last five months). Nobody else has a better record than this. The other people with four predictions with an error less than 0.5C are Nemi, The Professional and Rob Snowman. Unfortunately in the other 4 months markwells’ predictions have been way off.
It is also interesting to look at the cumulative errors in the last 5 months. Often the biggest errors arise in the winter months and of course in March this year almost everyone had a shocker due to the exceptional cold. If we just look at the period since April the top 10 would be as follows:
1 Easterly Beasterly 2.42
2 Sevendust 2.44
3 The Professional 3.01
4 Edicius81 3.08
5 Nemi 3.17
6 alan 3.23
7 Quantum 3.34
8 domma 3.34
9 Hungry Tiger 3.38
10 Dougie 3.42
August biggest climbers
46 Hippydave (↑8)
41 Alvin Meister (↑7)
39 marting (↑7)
19 Hungry Tiger (↑7)
23 Steam Fog (↑6)
43 GezM (↑6)
45 roger63 (↑6)
50 D McAlister (↑6)
August biggest fallers
56 ARTzeman (↓19)
53 moomin75 (↓15)
27 nouska (↓12)
29 Surrey John (↓7)
49 Llamedos (↓6)
59 AP Snowman (↓6)
For those of you interested in the detailed stats for the year so far here is the table showing the monthly prediction errors (yellow colouring means an error of less than 0.5C and orange means no prediction was made that month) and each person's position in the tables by month.
Edited by user
01 September 2013 12:05:15
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