July retrospective
The first above average month of the year and well above average at that. Likely to finish just under 2C above average. So far 2013 has seen every month of the year at least 0.5C either above or below average. The pattern matching for July was useless as it did not predict any real chance of very warm weather.
Looking ahead to August
Early indications are that apart from a brief hot spell at the start of the month we could be looking at very average conditions in the first half of the month.
Please place your August CET predictions in this thread. The deadline for entries with no penalty is 23:59 on 31 July. Late entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 August but are subject to a penalty of 0.2C per day for the purposes of the annual competition.
August historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
We have not had a warm August since 2004 so perhaps we are due one. 2004 saw 17.6C and the previous year saw 18.3C. The last really hot August was 1995 with 19.2C. Three of the last 6 August's saw a CET of 15.3C or 15.4C (2007, 2010 and 2011). In 2012 the CET was a little above average at 16.7C.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 16.2C
1981-2010: 16.4C
1988-2012: 16.5C
Here is a chart of the July CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
A hot start potentially but then very average but fairly dry.
ECM ensembles (De Bilt)
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
A very warm start to the month but temperatures then drifting down towards and even below average.
Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
After a hot start turning cooler but then could see a fair bit of warmer weather from mid month onwards.
Met office
Contingency planners forecast not yet available but probably will be released on Monday
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=regionalForecast
30 day forecast - after a brief hot start generally average temperatures for the rest of the month
Pattern matching (just for fun)
Looking at years since 1900 with a Jun - Jul temperature of 15.5C to 16.5C and July temperature of 17.7C to 18.8C there are only 8 matches. No obvious pattern can be discerned from this. In some years (1900 and 1901) August was very cool, in others (1911 and 1995) it was hot and in others it was about average.
So no clear signal at all this month.
Edited by moderator
28 July 2013 16:20:07
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