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RobSnowman
12 November 2011 19:53:23


I'm still erring on the mild side to be honest, as the winter months approach a repeat of last year is a no/no. It will be into Jan before we see some colder air,and even then I'm still erring on the milder side. CET +1.7


Originally Posted by: QQQQ 


Lol.....I'd love to see what figure you would put if you thought it was going to be cold!!!!!


I built this snowman of myself.
Steam Fog
13 November 2011 12:29:29

Thought it might be worth putting up the Met Office winter mean charts for the last few years for reference.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/16/2011_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/16/2010_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/16/2009_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2008/16/2008_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2007/16/2007_16_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif 


On the same basis the current spread of guesses and or scientifically accurate predications is:


>2.0C  0


1.5 to 2.0C  0


1.0 to 1.5C  4


0.5 to 1.0C  3


-0.5 to 0.5C  11


-1.0 to -0.5C  5


-1.5 to -1.0C  3


-2.0 to -1.5C  4


>-2.0C  7

13 November 2011 13:52:53

Graphically it looks something like this. A good spread but plenty going for deep cold.


13 November 2011 13:57:34
I'll go for a fairly mild winter this year. CET 5.3.
doctormog
13 November 2011 13:59:28
You can put me down for 3.2°C. It is a bit of a guess but you never know!
Dingle Rob
13 November 2011 15:50:58

4.4 for me - only because no-one else has as far as I can see.

four
  • four
  • Advanced Member
13 November 2011 18:02:22

I'm not guessing, however .... this autumn feels strikingly similar to 1978 to me.   


RWL757
13 November 2011 20:22:31

4.1C For me I think this winter season will balance out to around average with both cold spells and mild spells


Rich WL
Warmley
South Glos


The Beast from the East
13 November 2011 20:47:56
about average. There may be one significant cold spell but overall a disappointing winter after all the media hype. Anyway, I hope I'm wrong!
"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
RobSnowman
13 November 2011 21:26:55


I'm not guessing, however .... this autumn feels strikingly similar to 1978 to me.   


Originally Posted by: four 


Hence my CET forecast.


I built this snowman of myself.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 November 2011 17:10:52

As posted in winter  prospects METO hHdley probabilty charts coming down  slightly on the mild side.May cause some to re think but I'm sticking to slightly below average for the winter ahead.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
23 November 2011 08:53:31

Just a reminder that there is a week to go before the closing for your own overall winter 11/12 CET forecast.


Could I ask Mods if this could be left as a sticky as it covers the entire winter period and the competition will develop as each winter month passes.

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
26 November 2011 11:34:15

Just a reminder that the final date for your overall winter 11/12 CET forecasts is this Wdenesday midnight 30th November.


Might Brian be tempted to put on overall figure on his upcoming winter forecast?


 


 

celtic1888
26 November 2011 16:23:55

I will go for a CET of 5.7c (hope i am completely wrong)

Andy Woodcock
26 November 2011 18:14:47

3.5c for me.


Mostly dry overall but with a wet, mild start, colder in New Year with one or two significant cold spells in January and February.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Andy Woodcock
26 November 2011 18:16:46


As posted in winter  prospects METO hHdley probabilty charts coming down  slightly on the mild side.May cause some to re think but I'm sticking to slightly below average for the winter ahead.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


MetO Probability charts ALWAYS indicate a mild winter!


I think winter 2005/06 was the only one the MetO said would be colder than average and that turned out a damp quid.


Andy


Andy Woodcock
Penrith
Cumbria

Altitude 535 feet

"Why are the British so worried about climate change? Any change to their climate can only be an improvement" John Daley 2001
Whether Idle
26 November 2011 19:01:24

!!!STOP PRESS!!! WHETHER IDLE LRF for WINTER 2011-12 follows:


 December - mild zonal SWly type with occasional cooler interludes.  Snow absent except for northern hills.  Frost rare except anticyclonic interlude possibly mid month.  Potentially very stormy and wet into 12 days of Christmas. CET 5.9


 January - Continuing stormy wet and increasingly cold start with possibility of colder from blast from NE in 2nd week. Snow in N and E. Frosty Anticyclonic 3rd week then mild end with SWlies. CET 4.4


 February - Mild continues week 1.  Colder with snow in East week  2 .  Week 3 Renewed attack from N.  Snow N and W. Week 4 Mild/Cold battle. CET 2.3


 Chances of success - 1/1000.


 Methodology - Intestinal


 


P.s. Fairly similar ideas to that of a certain A Woodcock, by the looks of it.  We shall see.


 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
27 November 2011 12:52:49

It occurs to me some people may wish to hold off from making a post in this thread until after the December CET predictions have closed. This is on the basis a winter CET prediction might give some hint as to the person's view on what will happen in December (particularly if they go for an extreme winter CET either warm or cold).

On that basis I have suggested to Roger that it may be sensible to keep the predictions in this thread open for the first day or two of December which I don't think really gives anyone an advantage given we are talking about a forecast for a whole season.

So far we appear to have 45 predictions. If all those who take part in the monthly CET competition join this one as well then we ought to get up to around 100.

Snow Hoper
27 November 2011 13:20:11

If I'm honest GW, I would say not many would be thinking about making the comparison (at least I'm not). this for me was always a bit of fun and not taken seriously. I wouldn't for one minute, have thought about the figures in here being related to those in the year long thread.


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
muppet77
30 November 2011 11:27:42

3.8C please.


thanks


Stormchaser
30 November 2011 12:35:24

Based heavily on gut feeling once beyond December, my winter 2011/12 CET forecast is:


2.7C.


 


That relies heavily on February being very cold indeed although there is plenty of scope for a colder January than what I'm thinking of


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Quozzle
30 November 2011 13:42:38

4.4C please!


Thanks.

redmoons
30 November 2011 13:45:05

6.2c 


Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





30 November 2011 21:51:48

No idea really - a season is too long for any sort of accurate prediction from me. I will have a guess at 3.6C.

John S2
30 November 2011 22:38:37

My guess = 3.8c

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