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I'm going to guess at 3.5c Thank you!
4.1c
Mild December, average January and cold February please.
I'll go 4.8c please.
4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.* tea leaves.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
I too use the same technique but have included some code in the algorithm which allows for Tanin-modulated jasminesis (Earl Grey tea leaves)
The signals are far more mixed than the previous three years, but I would guess anything from average to well below average would be in the offering. So with that I'm going with 3.1c, slightly below average for December, well below average for January, and slightly below for February.
I will wait just a while longer before entering, My Winter Predictions in the other Fun competition could be a few days out, I think we could get a short sharp shock regarding temps but I'm still not sure wether very late in November or the start of December which could make December's CET a tricky one.
I'm going to go for a cheeky 4.0c.
4.8C please
December 5.2 Jan 4.2 Feb 3.0 making winter avaerage of 4.2, I thank you. i dont honesly have a clue. Its called gut feeling.
Originally Posted by: Jonesy
Basically average. 4.1C. Presumably it's just the one guess rather than chopping and changing between now and the end of the month?
Originally Posted by: Steam Fog
Won't be posting any table until beginning of December and the end of winter is over 3 months way.So no problem in changing forecast as long as its before end of November.To avoid duplication simply delete original post and replace with new one.
Right I'll throw my hat into the ring and my prediction will be 4.6c
Ho hum....
The long-term trend says average to mild but four below average winters in a row is not without predecent.
I'm going to go for an average December but a cold to very cold mid- to end of winter.
2.9C - just inside the lower quartile.
After a long consultation with the weather Gods we have decided to make the winter of 2011-12 a very cold one, in order to balance out the suffering many have endured through this overly mild season. It is forseen that the winter will have a CET of +1.4C, with a condierable cool down occuring mid-december but the real cold, snowy stuff reserved for post- Christmas and January. February cold and anticyclonic.
CET = +1.4C
Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.
Above average 31%
On average 3%
Below average 66%
Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)
I'll take a punt at 4.9c.
Mild until a frosty period around mid December, usual freezing fog in the prone areas where temps will remain at or just below 0, but no snow.
Change between Xmas Day and New years Day as the Atlantic wakes up and throws a front at the UK brining snow at the start. May stall for a while but would push through introducing mild wet weather for the New Year, mild and pretty dry also for the remainder of Jan.
It is Feb and late winter I see as potentially the main differece from the last few winters as I think something slong the lines of late Feb 2001 or Feb 2006 is probable.
Just my thoughts anyway.
Originally Posted by: roger63
5.4c
A real disappointment
On average is spot on 4.5C.
Originally Posted by: RobSnowman
Going with a similar view this year, just like every other year!
CET +1.617c, give or take 0.001c.
I think any indications of a prolonged cold/snowy period from now until early December will fail. In fact, November on the whole will by very mild, and the start of December too. After around mid-December, things will start to cool down, and I have a feeling that we may be in a for a big freeze around Christmas this year, with widespread snow. With the odd milder period, things will remain well below average quite far into January. February will then follow suit in terms of temperatures, but much less in terms of snow.
Just my feeling.
CET = +2.3C
I'm still erring on the mild side to be honest, as the winter months approach a repeat of last year is a no/no. It will be into Jan before we see some colder air,and even then I'm still erring on the milder side. CET +1.7