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Roonie
09 November 2011 22:09:27
3.9 please..
Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
09 November 2011 23:35:29

I'm going to guess at 3.5c  Thank you!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
LeedsLad123
10 November 2011 00:32:32

4.1c


 


Mild December, average January and cold February please. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
alan
  • alan
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2011 07:17:13

I'll go 4.8c please.

nsrobins
10 November 2011 10:09:27

4.3C for me. Slightly below average overall, with a mild December, cold January and average February.

The above forecast is based on advanced aqueous phytoanalytical techniques* and is thus at least as reliable as most LRFs.



* tea leaves.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 I too use the same technique but have included some code in the algorithm which allows for Tanin-modulated jasminesis (Earl Grey tea leaves)


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Solar Cycles
10 November 2011 10:28:18

The signals are far more mixed than the previous three years, but I would guess anything from average to well below average would be in the offering. So with that I'm going with 3.1c,  slightly below  average for December, well below average for January, and slightly below for February. 

tallyho_83
10 November 2011 10:38:01
Milder winter then last year and we will get a cold spell between 17th December - 24th and everyone will panic and it will make the news!!

I honestly do not know!

Anyway - I am in Prague now enjoying the cold crisp air and seeing the sunshine for a change.

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Jonesy
10 November 2011 11:28:29

I will wait just a while longer before entering, My Winter Predictions in the other Fun competition could be a few days out, I think we could get a short sharp shock regarding temps but I'm still not sure wether very late in November or the start of December which could make December's CET a tricky one.


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Gusty
10 November 2011 12:05:27

I'm going to go for a cheeky 4.0c.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



AlvinMeister
10 November 2011 12:11:16

4.8C please

Whether Idle
10 November 2011 21:19:36

December 5.2 Jan 4.2 Feb 3.0 making winter avaerage of 4.2, I thank you. i dont honesly have a clue.  Its called gut feeling.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
10 November 2011 23:00:09


I will wait just a while longer before entering, My Winter Predictions in the other Fun competition could be a few days out, I think we could get a short sharp shock regarding temps but I'm still not sure wether very late in November or the start of December which could make December's CET a tricky one.


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

Now then Jonesy!  I wonder whether waiting nearer to the time to guess, statistically produces more accurate guesses?  No, seriously!    Anyway, snow for Christmas eh? 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 November 2011 11:05:26

Basically average. 4.1C. Presumably it's just the one guess rather than chopping and changing between now and the end of the month?

Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 


Won't be posting any  table until beginning of December and the end of winter is over 3 months way.So no problem in changing  forecast as long as its  before end of November.To avoid duplication simply delete original post and replace with new one.

Jonesy
11 November 2011 15:05:59

Right I'll throw my hat into the ring and my prediction will be 4.6c


 


Medway Towns (Kent)
The Weather will do what it wants, when it wants, no matter what data is thrown at it !
Gandalf The White
11 November 2011 16:31:53

Ho hum....


The long-term trend says average to mild but four below average winters in a row is not without predecent.


I'm going to go for an average December but a cold to very cold mid- to end of winter.


2.9C - just inside the lower quartile.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
11 November 2011 17:56:19


Right I'll throw my hat into the ring and my prediction will be 4.6c


Originally Posted by: Jonesy 

  I hope it was nothing I said! 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
RobSnowman
12 November 2011 08:49:01

After a long consultation with the weather Gods we have decided to make the winter of 2011-12 a very cold one, in order to balance out the suffering many have endured through this overly mild season. It is forseen that the winter will have a CET of +1.4C, with a condierable cool down occuring mid-december but the real cold, snowy stuff reserved for post- Christmas and January. February cold and anticyclonic.


CET = +1.4C 


I built this snowman of myself.
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 November 2011 08:50:40

Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.


Above average 31%


On average       3%


Below average 66%


Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)


 

SydneyonTees
12 November 2011 10:18:32

I'll take a punt at 4.9c.


Mild until a frosty period  around mid December, usual freezing fog in the prone areas where temps will remain at or just below 0, but no snow.


Change between Xmas Day and New years Day as the Atlantic wakes up and throws a front at the UK brining snow at the start. May stall for a while but would push through introducing mild wet weather for the New Year, mild and pretty dry also for the remainder of Jan.


It is Feb and late winter I see as potentially the main differece from the last few winters as I think something slong the lines of late Feb 2001 or Feb 2006 is probable.


 


Just my thoughts anyway.

Steam Fog
12 November 2011 10:29:20

Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.


Above average 31%


On average       3%


Below average 66%


Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)


 

Originally Posted by: roger63 



Are you only counting average as being spot on the long term average or do you have a bit of plus minus either side?
Saint Snow
12 November 2011 10:37:19

5.4c


A real disappointment



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 November 2011 10:59:18


Quick update on which way the forum is leaning.


Above average 31%


On average       3%


Below average 66%


Broadly speaking,at present a 2:1 majority for colder than average(wishful thinking?)


 


Originally Posted by: Steam Fog 

Are you only counting average as being spot on the long term average or do you have a bit of plus minus either side?

Originally Posted by: roger63 


On average is spot on 4.5C.

Phil G
12 November 2011 11:20:07


After a long consultation with the weather Gods we have decided to make the winter of 2011-12 a very cold one, in order to balance out the suffering many have endured through this overly mild season. It is forseen that the winter will have a CET of +1.4C, with a condierable cool down occuring mid-december but the real cold, snowy stuff reserved for post- Christmas and January. February cold and anticyclonic.


CET = +1.4C 


Originally Posted by: RobSnowman 


Going with a similar view this year, just like every other year!


CET +1.617c, give or take 0.001c.   

Hamptonian
12 November 2011 16:41:20

I think any indications of a prolonged cold/snowy period from now until early December will fail. In fact, November on the whole will by very mild, and the start of December too. After around mid-December, things will start to cool down, and I have a feeling that we may be in a for a big freeze around Christmas this year, with widespread snow. With the odd milder period, things will remain well below average quite far into January. February will then follow suit in terms of temperatures, but much less in terms of snow.


Just my feeling. 


CET = +2.3C

QQQQ
  • QQQQ
  • Advanced Member
12 November 2011 18:09:24

I'm still erring on the mild side to be honest, as the winter months approach a repeat of last year is a no/no. It will be into Jan before we see some colder air,and even then I'm still erring on the milder side. CET +1.7


Cheers
"Q"
Poole, Dorset
39m ASL
Poole Current Conditions  

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