Good morning......

Coronavirus may never go away, World Health Organization warns

Speaking at a briefing on Wednesday, WHO emergencies director Dr Mike Ryan warned against trying to predict when the virus would disappear.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52643682

It's a good start to today. To sum up:

* At long last our government has decided to push forwards with antibody testing, albeit the start of it is still to be confirmed. (Why it took them so long I'll never know, the test they're using has been CE-marked for a while and that should have been good enough for them!)
* We are building herd immunity if other countries such as Spain are anything to go by. This is great news, even at the 4-10% level. Why? Every single percentage point reduces R, regardless of weather, social distancing or whatever. With measures in place, R will decrase even faster.
* There's light at the end of the tunnel - shield the elderly (60+, to be on the safe side), gradually ease the lockdown and the immunity levels will continue to rise.

It's also worth bearing in mind that these figures show that anywhere from 2-5 million people have had it in Spain. Bearing in mind the vast, vast majority of deaths are in the elderly, it shows that the actual fatality rate for youngsters is minimal - confirming what we already knew from the raw figures. Bear in mind as well that young adults (<30) usually get rid of the virus in ways that don't involve antibodies, meaning that the number of cases is even higher - which means the fatality rate is even lower.

With all this in mind, what should be done? Obviously shield the elderly and those with underlying conditions, but we also need to find out *why* some people who are otherwise healthy are so badly affected. At present it still seems a mystery and much more needs to be done here.

Countries such as South Korea may have avoided much of that first wave, but they're now paying the price - one guy in a nightclub infects dozens of others.

There's still a lot we need to learn about this, but at long last things are moving in the right direction. We don't have a clear picture of the puzzle we're putting together, but we at least have a hazy outline of it now!

Took the plunge yesterday and ordered a hair trimmers from Amazon (50 quid inc post costs) only to find out that I have to wait until at least the first week of July for it to arrive. By that time, my whole look will have changed from the present scruffy 70s chic to all out Monkees. All I need now is the big red flares and big collared, tight fitting flowery shirts. Also have some more work to do on my New York pimpesque walking style, but I'm getting there.  

Yes indeed Darren, it’s a good start to the day!  The sun is shining and we seem to be making progress, getting the R down and gathering ammunition to fight this virus!  

Not wanting to dampen enthusiasm, but not wanting people to have dashed hopes either.  I don’t think we should put all our eggs in the antibody basket because it will take a long time to test everyone and if we find 4 - 10% have antibodies, as suspected.  What about the 90 - 96% who don’t have them?  Where do they stand?

I’m increasingly of the opinion that susceptibility is the deciding factor and I’m just hoping they’re seriously looking at the biological link between obesity and susceptibility.  Studies have already shown a link between obesity and asthma.  

Hubby’s hair clippers went missing and we tried to order new ones with the same results!  I’ve threatened to get the kitchen scissors out but he won’t let me near him with them!  My brother managed to buy some clippers early on in lockdown and the trim his wife gave him ended up in a full head shave.  It’s growing again now!  

My brother once shaved off his beard. He said:

"I looked in the mirror and there was Granny looking back at me!"

I've not seen my chin since the Monkees. I shall keep it that way.

R.

Some thoughts: the 90-96% are now at a lower risk than they were, thanks to those who've had it and are now immune. Remember as well, we're talking of 90-96% of the over 30s, or over 40s - wherever the line is drawn for an antibody response to be mounted. Under that age most dispose of the virus in other ways - whether that means they'll keep catching it, or whether there's another mechanism to provide immunity remains to be seen.

We now now that by far the most important factor is age. We should be doing all we can to ensure the over 60s are kept as safe as possible from it, as they are more likely to die if they get it.

For the rest, a gradual easing will doubtless continue and as a result that number of immune people will gradually rise... and every percentage point gained in terms of immunity will reduce R by that little bit more (it's also an exponential function, so going from 10-11% immune will have more of an effect than 2-3% immune).

Obesity - yes, it's a factor but a mild one. There are lots of fat under 45s, for example, yet we know that under 45 you are most unlikely to die from it. Age and then underlying conditions are far, far more of an indicator it seems.

Which leaves us with those unlucky folks who, for whatever reason, are young, otherwise healthy and die. The chances are miniscule, of course, but we should be doing much more research - DNA analysis etc - to see what the cause is.

When do you receive your result Darren? Good post to read first thing in the morning btw. Hope you are right. 👍

The sample should reach the lab today and - assuming it's viable (I hope so, as 10ml is actually quite  bit of blood), I should have the results tomorrow. It's one of the few tests in life, I guess, where a positive would be a good result!

You're not looking at the whole data though. What it shows is that if you're elderly and get it, you're at serious risk. If you're younger then the risk is much less, unless you have an underlying condition or are unlucky enough to have whatever it is that causes a cytokine storm.

And if you're under 30, or 40 (the line is a bit vague) then you won't show up on the test at all, as you won't have used antibodies to clear the virus in the first place.

The results are clear: shield the old, maintain distancing etc and the youngsters will slowly but surely continue to build immunity.

(EDIT: And your post shows well the folly of using averages in a massively skewed distribution. Just as a few people earning a million+ a year will skew the average much higher in terms of average earnings, so too the CFR is skewed by the massive bias towards elderly people. You should instead look at CFR by age).

If Spain is underreporting deaths like the UK and the true figure is closer to 50000 the mortality rate is close to 2%. The spread is similar to my back of fag packet calculation the other day. Remember British experts were suggesting a mortality rate of 0.20 to 0.50% early on because of a huge number of unreported cases. The WHO investigation into Wuhan said that was NOT the case but we seemed to dismiss their work. 

You're falling into the same trap that John did, Brian. Break it down by age band and as ever it's the elderly - the over 60s, and especially the over 75s, who have a far greater risk of dying. The CFR is a fraction of a percent lower down, still an order of magnitude higher than regular flu, but nowhere near 2%.

We should be shielding the elderly, or at least making it clear that if they go out they do so at their own risk!

That's not clear yet. However, the number of asymptomatic cases does seem to be quite high. I wonder how it compares to other corona viruses?

According to Marina Pollan, the head of the National Center of Epidemiology, around 26% of infections were found to be asymptomatic.

She also said the study found that antibodies were less frequent in children than in the general population 

As a well-over-60-year-old, I have no objection to the principle of being kept safe, but if this involves being confined to my own house for however many years I have left, then the miserable existence implied by the cure is worse than the disease. I would have no hesitation in breaking a time-unlimited lockdown even if it meant a fine every time I went out. As it is, I put my faith in social distancing and I'm fairly happy to adjust my lifestyle to incorporate that e.g. avoid public transport and go shopping onlyat quiet times. I'm sure that others of my age would feel the same.

It's reminiscent of the treatment of menatl health where "lock 'em up and throw away the key" was recognised in the second half of the 19th century as inhumane and replaced with medical treatment. Roll on vaccination.

I agree. Odd how they coincide with the release of UFO footage by the US government. 

This is absolutely right. I would not condone my parents or my mother-in-law being locked away for months on end. That would be utterly appalling and anybody advocating such a thing would be suffering an empathy problem. We have to come up with better solutions than simply ‘shield the elderly’.

The more data we have, the more accurate the fag packet calculation is likely to be simply because we can average out all the anomalies. The remaining uncertainty IMO is whether we are looking at 2% of people infected or 2% of people who show symptoms. Mass testing is the only way to resolve that one.

Some delivery dates are quite distant on Amazon. I’ve been looking at face masks and some were also July.

You could always buy elsewhere and cancel the Amazon order. I don’t know if John Lewis ships to your area but they have cheaper ones.

I disagree quite strongly there. Every part of Four's post is highly questionable.

Where the hell does anyone get the idea that covid-19 targets western centres of power when the stats show that it preferentially kills people in the BAME community?

I'd love to know where he gets such statements from. I hope they are copied and pasted because if he makes them up himself, I fear he may be hitching up a bit more than he can tow.

UK meds have face masks in. Surgical:

https://www.ukmeds.co.uk/surgical-face-masks

FFP2

https://www.ukmeds.co.uk/hygiene-face-mask-ffp2-n95