Unsettled and possibly stormy week

[Updated 08:45 19/11/2017]

Cloudy weather

The week ahead brings the potential for stormy periods. It will turn milder in most of the UK although northern Scotland is likely to remain colder. By next weekend cold air probably returns southwards.

Sunday begins mostly dry and there is quite a widespread frost. Sunny spells develop this morning but through the day thicker cloud builds in from the west. By the early evening outbreaks of rain begin to affect Northern Ireland and western Scotland but elsewhere it remains dry.

Most of the UK has a cold day with afternoon temperatures ranging from 5C (41F) in the north to 7C (45F) in much of the south, although the south west will be milder. See the rainfall radar for the latest view.

Tonight wet and windy weather spreads across central and northern regions. Over the Scottish mountains heavy snow is likely. Some rain pushes into southern counties too but it will be lighter and patchier.

Tomorrow periods of rain affect much of the UK but they become increasingly patchy and in the afternoon a few sunny spells may develop. It will still be cold in Scotland but despite the cloud the rest of the UK has quite a mild day.

On Tuesday another area of wet and windy weather spreads across the north and west. It will generally be mild but northern Scotland hangs on to the cold air. 

Stormy mid-week?

During the middle of the week it stays unsettled. The southern half of the UK is expected to become very mild but there is the potential for stormy conditions. The north has heavy spells of rain and northern Scotland could remain under colder Arctic air for much of the time. 

The GFS forecast chart for Wednesday night shows wind gusts approaching 70mph in the north west and close to 60mph in the south.

GFS 00z, 19th November, max wind gusts (mph) for 00GMT, Thurs 23rd November

Cold air returning southwards

By Friday low pressure is expected to be pulling away northeastwards as the ECWMF chart below shows. That allows the colder air to return southwards and probably bring a chilly weekend with wintry showers in the north.

ECWMF 00z, 19th November, 850hPa temperatures and surface pressure for 00GMT, Sat 25th November

TWO news

Buzz looks at the likelihood of unsettled weather. TWO's fourth winter discussion update has been issued. The winter forecast covering December, January and February will be issued at the end of this month.

Christmas countdown

TWO's annual Christmas Countdown continues.

16 day GEFS ensembles at a glance

Changeable weather is shown. Rather mild conditions are favoured for a time next week but beyond that temperatures trend downwards towards the seasonal average. View latest GEFS.

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