Warm but quite a lot of cloud cover

[Updated 06:50 20/08/2018]

Butterfly tree

The working week is off to a muggy start in the southern half of the UK and during sunny spells it will feel very warm. Temperatures will be lower in the north and during Wednesday the cooler air returns southeastwards. At this stage there is uncertainty about the Bank Holiday weekend prospects.

Monday begins mostly dry but a weak weather front is bringing light rain to parts of Wales, Northern England and Northern Ireland. Through the rest of the day there will be cloudy periods and the risk of showery rain, but many places remain dry and sunny spells develop at times.

Maximum temperatures range from 16C (61F) in the north to a warm 25C (77F) in brighter parts of south and east England. See the rain and lightning radar for the latest view

Hirlam forecast chart 1

Hirlam, forecast rain, 16:00 BST Mon 21st August


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Tonight scattered showers continue in the southern half of the UK. It will be another muggy night away from the north with temperatures in much of England not falling below 17C (63F).

Tomorrow isolated showers are possibly but it should be mostly dry across England and Wales. Again there is likely to be quite a lot of cloud but in sunny spells it becomes very warm again. In Scotland and Northern Ireland cloud thickens and outbreaks of rain push in from the northwest. 

GFS forecast chart 1

GFS, forecast rain, 19:00 BST Tue 21st August

Cooler and more changeable

During Wednesday a band of rain in the north slowly pushes southeastwards and cooler conditions follow on behind it. The south eastern corner may remain dry and very warm for much of the day with the rain pushing into central and south western England during the afternoon.

By Thursday the cooler and showery conditions will have pushed southeastwards across all regions. That sets the general theme for Friday and the Bank Holiday weekend but forecast details are still uncertain. There is a possibility of it becoming mostly dry in the southern half of the country from Saturday as another ridge of high pressure builds.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

GFS forecast chart 2

GFS, forecast surface pressure, 16:00 BST Sat 25th August



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A mixed outlook is shown. After a warm start cooler air spreads southwards across all regions but it warms up again during the last days of August and early September. View latest GEFS.

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