Tuesday 26 Oct - Thursday 4 Nov

Fine at first in the east on Tuesday before more prolonged, organised rain arrives in the west, with fresh to strong winds. Through the first few days of this period, Atlantic systems will continue to move in from the west, bringing heavy rain and strong, locally gale force winds. Some rainbands could become slow-moving with locally large rainfall accumulations possible, particularly over western hills. Temperatures generally around or a little above average. The rest of October will continue to see unsettled and windy weather arriving from the Atlantic, with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain for many. Wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas.

Thursday 4 Nov - Thursday 18 Nov

To start the period remaining unsettled as before, but from early to mid-November increasing chance of settled weather but confidence of this is very low. Temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most. Perhaps some colder spells and an increasing chance of frost and fog towards the end of this period but confidence of this is very low.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Winter 2021/2022 forecast issued from accuweather.com going for a blocked winter with the coldest weather later on.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

The unsettled weather over most of southern Europe is indicative of southerly tracking lows with drier than average conditions over the low countries like Denmark and then high pressure over Scandinavia is indicative of a drier and blocked winter.

Hmm...we shall see..?

 

 

 

 

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled October, turning colder and drier later

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Saturday 23 October to – Sunday 31 October

Warm but unsettled week to finish out October.

The final week of October will continue to be unsettled across the UK, but the large-scale pattern across Europe will be slightly different. High pressure is more likely to build in Southeast Europe through the week. This will trap low pressure to our northwest, keeping weakened weather fronts overhead for much of the week. In addition, this will shift winds to be out of the southwest, transporting milder sub-tropical Atlantic air, so temperatures will run above average throughout the week. We may see some very wet conditions as fronts stall overhead, but the Southeast could escape this, staying mostly dry.

Monday 1 November to – Sunday 7 November

Staying unsettled, colder Atlantic air moving in.

The first full week of November should see further unsettled conditions for the UK as low pressure remains in charge for Northern Europe. We anticipate that high pressure in Southeast Europe will decline, allowing weather fronts to pass through more easily. The wind direction will also shift from southwest to more westerly, bringing changeable temperatures and less warmth. As fronts move through more regularly, eastern and southern areas will become a little wetter, seeing rain more often than the final week of October.

As high pressure weakens in the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic low pressure systems will be able to dip further south. This means some wetter weather for France and Spain, but also some more consistent cooler Atlantic air for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures there will likely run a little below average on most days, while southern England is more often near or slightly above average.

We may medium confidence in the early November outlook, mainly due to some inconsistent signals from the latest computer models on high pressure in East Europe. Instead, we could see this high remain, which would give us similar weather to late October. This is still an unsettled pattern, but the main difference will be temperatures as warmer air would be expected in the alternate scenario. There is a roughly 30% chance of this occurring instead.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 21 November

Gradually turning settled but noticeably colder.

Through the middle of November, we are seeing some good signals for a development of a more blocked pattern. This is where a large area of high pressure sits nearby and quite literally blocks low pressure systems from moving in. These patterns tend to be long-lived, so once the high develops it should stick around for a few weeks.
The tricky part of this forecast lies in the timing of this block arriving. Mid-November will likely be a transition period as high pressure gradually shift into western Europe and the Atlantic, displacing low pressure troughs into Northeast Europe. During this transition, the weather in the UK will likely remain unsettled with temperatures trending near or below average for most places as winds shift more to the northwest.

As we head into the second half of November, we think the blocking high will be in place and linger just to the west of us. This means north westerly winds bring in colder North Atlantic air from Greenland, so temperatures should tend to be below average. However, weather fronts will be deflected east, so it should be dry and calm. Frost is likely overnight in these conditions, and any weak showers that reach into northern Scotland could turn wintry in the hills.

Further ahead

We will endeavour to pin down the blocking high in November and see when we might expect colder air to arrive bringing the opening salvo of the winter season.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Quite a bullish forecast for dry, cold weather in November from the BBC.

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Thursday 28 Oct - Saturday 6 Nov

Through this period, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Thursday, the northwest may start mainly dry with a few showers, but turning wetter later as some rainbands becoming slow-moving, while the southeast is more likely to see dry and fine conditions. The rest of October will continue to see unsettled and windy weather from the Atlantic, with outbreaks of potentially heavy rain for many. Some possible slow-moving rainbands may bring potentially locally large rainfall accumulations, particularly over western hills. Wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog towards the end of the period. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average.

Saturday 6 Nov - Saturday 20 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights, with a risk of frosts are likely, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 29 Oct - Sunday 7 Nov

Towards the end of October, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Friday, although the north and far southeast may see some dry spells, the weather will be unsettled for the rest of the UK, especially in central and western areas, where spells of prolonged heavy rain may develop. The weather will remain unsettled across the UK for the rest of October, with heavy rainfall likely to continue in the west. In the second half of the period, wettest in the west and northwest, but still with brief dry interludes. Driest conditions likely across some south and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog towards the end of the period. Temperatures generally around or slightly above average.

Monday 8 Nov - Monday 22 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights, with a risk of frosts are likely, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 30 Oct - Monday 8 Nov

Towards the end of October, Atlantic systems will move in from the west, bringing unsettled and windy conditions. On Saturday, although the north and far southeast may see some dry spells, the weather will be unsettled for the rest of the UK, especially in central and western areas, where spells of prolonged heavy rain may develop. The weather will remain unsettled across the UK for the rest of October, with heavy rainfall likely to continue in the west. In the second half of the period, it will be wettest in the west and northwest, but still with some drier interludes. Driest conditions are likely across southern and southeastern areas, with lighter winds and a risk of overnight fog. Temperatures are expected to be generally around or slightly above average.

Tuesday 9 Nov - Tuesday 23 Nov

In the longer term, a continuation of the generally unsettled theme seems likely at first, with more rain and further showers in many places, especially once again in western areas - with temperatures around or a little above average. Towards the middle and end of November, there are signals for a greater chance of more settled conditions developing, particularly in southern and western areas, where colder nights are likely with a risk of frost, as well as an increased chance of mist and fog - especially overnight.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Winter 2021/2022 forecast issued from accuweather.com going for a blocked winter with the coldest weather later on.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

The unsettled weather over most of southern Europe is indicative of southerly tracking lows with drier than average conditions over the low countries like Denmark and then high pressure over Scandinavia is indicative of a drier and blocked winter.

Hmm...we shall see..?

 

 

 

 

 

Thought this sentence in the ACCU WEATHER winter 2021/2022 forecast is interesting esp given we will be in a La Nina.

"On top of chilly winds out of the east, the La Niña phase will increase the opportunity for snow across the United Kingdom and Ireland as well as areas from France to Poland, especially later in the season."

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Sunday 31 Oct - Tuesday 9 Nov

Sunday is expected to be a generally unsettled and windy day, with prolonged and sometimes heavy rain for some parts being followed by showers for most. There is a low risk of a potentially very windy spell lasting into early next week. Thereafter, a spell of cooler weather is expected due to northwesterly winds, possibly becoming northerly later. It will remain unsettled, where longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, and there is the potential for further episodes of strong winds. As a result of this, temperatures will be at or below average, and this will be cold enough for snow over the Scottish Highlands. Any settled spells during this period will be short-lived, but if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

Wednesday 10 Nov - Wednesday 24 Nov

Northwesterly winds are likely to continue to dominate during this period. It will continue to feel cool with temperatures below average for many. The unsettled weather will continue, where the west and northwest will see the wettest conditions, and the east and southeast the driest. Longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, these likely wintry over the Scottish Highlands and perhaps the hills of northern England and Wales later in the month. There will be some drier and settled spells, but these will often be short-lived. However, if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Monday 1 Nov - Wednesday 10 Nov

Further persistent rain is expected for most areas heading into next week, however not as widespread as recently, with very windy conditions possible for north and northeastern areas. It will remain generally unsettled through the week, with further spells of rain and a risk of gales across northern and eastern coastal regions. North to northwesterly winds continue to strengthen, bringing further wet and windy conditions, interspersed with often heavy showers, some of which are likely to turn to snow over mountainous areas to the north. Unsettled conditions are likely to remain for much of this period, with a few short-lived settled interludes arriving later. It will feel cooler than average for this time of the year.

Thursday 11 Nov - Thursday 25 Nov

Northwesterly winds are likely to continue to dominate during this period. It will continue to feel cool with temperatures below average for many. The unsettled weather will continue, where the west and northwest will see the wettest conditions, and the east and southeast the driest. Longer spells of rain will be interspersed with showers, these are likely to be wintry over the Scottish Highlands and perhaps the hills of northern England and Wales later in the month. There will be some drier and settled spells, but these will often be short-lived. However, if they occur overnight, frost and fog is likely.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

South West England weather forecast
Friday 29 Oct - Tuesday 2 Nov
Headline:
Unsettled and windy with heavy rain at times.

Saturday:
Overnight rain will quickly clear the east during the morning, leaving behind a day of sunshine and a few showers, mainly in the west. Winds also easing, but remaining cold. Maximum temperature 14 °C.

....... about average then

Some very unusual wording in the Met office extended outlook:

“often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around.”

 

 

 

 

…the new ‘wintery hazards’ ! 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A colder, slightly wet outlook for November.

____________________

Saturday 30 October to – Sunday 7 November

Drier and colder next working week for a time.

A very wet weekend is in store for much of the country as heavy rain sweeps across the UK. Low pressure is expected to remain nearby through much of the next week, but high pressure will also build to the west. This will cause winds to shift to the north and bring in some noticeably colder air, causing temperatures to dip below average through the working week. The nearby low will keep shower chances high for northern and eastern areas, but many will have a dry midweek. By next weekend, however, unsettled weather will likely return, bringing milder, wetter days.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 14 November

Unsettled and changeable week, but often cool.

Heading into the middle of November, our confidence in the forecast has dropped a bit as computer models are really struggling with how strong high pressure will be. It is looking more likely now that we will see highs remain in Southwest Europe or the Mediterranean, keeping low pressure to the north of the UK and a cool, wet, and breezy pattern for us.

However, it will probably be quiet a changeable week due to the nearby high pressure. These pressure zones tend to dominate the weather patterns and push low pressure out of their way, so it is very likely we will see some occasional ridges of high pressure extend in from the south. This will bring some dry but colder spells as the ridges shift winds to the north. Dry spells should only last for a few days at a time though.

The risk to this forecast is that these ridges do not move away and instead build in and remain. This is a drier, cooler, less changeable outlook, as winds will tend to be out of the northwest and bring in colder air from Iceland. There is perhaps a 30% chance of this pattern developing instead, so confidence is a bit low. We do, however, have medium to high confidence that it will often be cooler than normal.

Monday 15 November to – Sunday 28 November

An often wet and cold second half of November.

Confidence has also dropped for the second half of November. Again, the computer models are really struggling with the large-scale pattern. In these situations, we can turn to our historical analogues for some additional guidance. These are models where we look at years since 1950 that saw similar weather patterns to those we are observing at the moment. One big signal is coming from a pattern called La Nina, which is cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.

Although far away from the UK, this trend can set up the large-scale weather pattern from North America stretching across the Atlantic and into Europe. Usually in November, we see high pressure near Iceland and Greenland, extending north of Europe into West Russia with a weak area of low pressure near the UK. We are expecting this to be the case for the second half of November this year, and there are signals in a few computer models that support this. This would be a colder than normal and slightly wet outlook for the UK with weak weather fronts often bringing outbreaks of rain.

The alternate scenario, which has some strong support in the computer models, is for high pressure to build overhead and remain in place, keeping things slightly cooler than normal but dry. The temperatures would be sensitive to the position of the high in this pattern, and the further east the high is the milder it will be. There is a roughly 35% chance of this developing instead, but we have higher confidence that in either pattern temperatures will tend to be on a cooler side of average.

Further ahead

Hopefully we can increase the confidence in the forecast with fresh data. We will also look at the risk for a potential cold outbreak of Arctic air in late November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 4 Nov - Saturday 13 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest conditions expected in the northwest with bands of heavy rain and showers which later briefly give way to drier interludes. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however it will most likely be less so than of late. Driest conditions most likely in the south east where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest. Temperatures are set to be around average overall with some milder interludes likely as weather moves in from the Atlantic. Some brief colder spells are still possible, especially in the south.

Sunday 14 Nov - Sunday 28 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are initially most likely over high ground with an increasing chance of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Seasonal outlook for November updated by Weather Online by Alexi Venerus:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

 

 

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Friday 5 Nov - Sunday 14 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest and windiest conditions expected in the north and west over the weekend with bands of heavy rain and showers and a risk of gales. Drier interludes to follow these showers. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however it will most likely be less so than of late. Driest conditions most likely in the southeast where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest but becoming less windy by the end of the period. Temperatures will be around average with some milder interludes however, some brief colder spells are still possible, especially in the south.

Sunday 14 Nov - Sunday 28 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are initially most likely over high ground with an increasing chance of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of messy cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Messy clouds must be the new wintry hazards!

Seasonal outlook for November updated by Weather Online by Alexi Venerus:

https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/seasonal-outlook.htm

 

 

LOL

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LOL

At the forecast or my post? 

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At the forecast or my post? 

The forecast mate , as brief as brief can be 

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