LOL

Certainly a detailed analysis!

Was anyone surprised that the MetOffice didn’t issue an Amber warning yesterday.

I follow a few people on Twitter and they seemed to call the problems yesterday far better IMHO.

There was a fair swath of damage across England.

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Thought these are worth the watch:

What do you think re winter 2021/22? Assuming you can speak Deutsch?

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Thought these are worth the watch:

What do you think re winter 2021/22? Assuming you can speak Deutsch?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4coM0-4tkl0

Such long-range predictions are rarely ever worth taking much notice of, no matter whoever issues them. Might as well have a go at predicting the winning lottery jackpot numbers for the next three weekend while we are at it.

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Was anyone surprised that the MetOffice didn’t issue an Amber warning yesterday.

I follow a few people on Twitter and they seemed to call the problems yesterday far better IMHO.

There was a fair swath of damage across England.

Some models suggested that an event of this nature might occur.

That said, things erupted very quickly and it wasn't really until dawn yesterday that the trouble became apparent with a tight circulation and torrential rain appearing on the Dorset coast.

An amber would have been justified along the swathe of the feature but it was over very quickly.

Some models suggested that an event of this nature might occur.

That said, things erupted very quickly and it wasn't really until dawn yesterday that the trouble became apparent with a tight circulation and torrential rain appearing on the Dorset coast.

An amber would have been justified along the swathe of the feature but it was over very quickly.

As you said it was a blink and you'd miss it event. 

Quite extraordinary to be under though and as I've mentioned elsewhere, the infrastructure and vegetation damage notable.

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Saturday 6 Nov - Monday 15 Nov

An unsettled and changeable start to this period with typically autumnal conditions dominating the weather. Wettest and windiest conditions expected in the west and northwest over the weekend with bands of heavy and perhaps prolonged rain and a risk of gales. There is a risk of this rain being impactful, however there will also be some drier interludes. Driest and brightest conditions most likely in the southeast where any bands of rain will be weaker than those seen elsewhere. Occasionally windy throughout with the strongest winds expected in the northwest but becoming less windy by the end of the period. Temperatures will be around or slightly above average however, some brief colder spells are still possible.

Tuesday 16 Nov - Tuesday 30 Nov

Temperatures set to be slightly below average overall throughout this period with an increased likelihood of wintry showers from the north and northwest at times. These showers are most likely over high ground with low risk of them reaching lower levels later in the month. Less windy than the previous week, with stormy conditions much less likely than usual. Little evidence to suggest any prolonged widespread settled conditions as often areas of cloud, rain and showers will be around. Any clear spells that do occur give way to frost and fog as expected for the time of year. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 7 Nov - Tuesday 16 Nov

Blustery showers are likely in the far north and northeast at the start of the period, but these quickly clearing. Otherwise, plenty of fine, dry weather with long spells of sunshine. Rain and thicker cloud will then steadily encroach from the west and northwest. Through the week beginning the 8th, areas of low pressure lying to the north or northwest of the UK will bring unsettled conditions predominantly affecting the north and west, with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by cooler, more showery interludes. The driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast where rain bands will often be weak. Temperatures generally around average thorough this period, although brief cold spells possible.

Wednesday 17 Nov - Wednesday 1 Dec

Through this period, there is an increased chance of wintry showers from the north and northwest, initially over higher ground but also a low risk at lower levels later in the month. While there is little sign of prolonged, widespread settled weather, conditions are likely to be less stormy and windy. Where there are more settled spells, frost and fog are increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Signs of a colder November on the horizon

____________________

Wednesday 3 November to – Sunday 7 November

Cooler through the end of the week

As high pressure builds to the southwest, northerly winds will usher in a burst of below normal temperatures to the UK for much of this week. Low pressure to the north and east may allow spells of showers to occur the latter half of the week across northern and eastern areas while largely dry conditions develop across the south. A more potent low pressure system should pass between Scotland and Iceland this weekend. This will bring a wave of wet conditions to Scotland and Northern Ireland, along with increased winds and a return to milder weather.

Monday 8 November to – Sunday 14 November

An unsettled pattern returns for mid-November

The early part of the week should see milder air being drawn in across the UK from the southwest as high pressure shifts towards Central Europe. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to pass over or just to the north of the UK during the week. This will provide for periods of wet weather to develop along with breezy winds, especially across the north and west.

Later in the week a cold front is likely to move through, which will spread wet and windy conditions across the UK. In the wake of the front, high pressure will develop late next weekend allowing for drier and calmer conditions to return, but will cause temperatures to cool down. It is not likely to be anomalously cold though.

The main risk to the forecast for this week is that the ridge of high pressure in Central Europe becomes weaker and allows for the trough of low pressure in Scandinavia to extend southward across Western Europe.

This would result in colder northerly winds to become more entrenched across the UK, especially over the latter half of the week. This would also likely promote a drier pattern as the more active storm track shifts away from the UK and instead would favour Western and Central Europe. There is about a 25% chance of this pattern developing.

Monday 15 November to – Sunday 28 November

Late November cold

Moving into the second half of November, we should see an overall colder pattern begin to take shape. Model guidance continues to struggle with the large-scale pattern, so we have turned to our historical analogues to delve into what had occurred in similar situations in years past.

One important signal to consider is the La Nina that is currently developing. La Nina events occur when cooler than average ocean temperatures develop along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean. While far away from the UK, La Nina is an important driver in setting up the large-scale weather pattern across North America towards the Atlantic and Europe. With a La Nina occurring in November, one common feature is high pressure forming near Greenland while a weak area of low pressure develops in Western Europe.

This is the pattern that is expected to take hold over the second half of November. The high pressure near Greenland will help direct colder air from the north towards the UK, leading to a period of below normal temperatures. As the Greenland high becomes more entrenched and occasionally extend towards Northern Europe, winds are likely to diminish. With low pressure still expected to be close by, this doesn't appear to be a dry pattern, but it is also unlikely to be an extremely wet pattern. A few of the computer models are beginning to support the solution indicated by the historical analogues.

The other scenario which has support in the computer models would be for high pressure to be more prevalent across Western Europe. This would still favour a cooler pattern, but temperatures would be more sensitive to the position of the high with a few brief shots of milder air possible. An overall drier pattern would also develop. There is about a 35% chance that this pattern ultimately prevails. Confidence is higher, however, regarding temperatures for the period falling on the colder side of normal.

Further ahead

We will continue to monitor the risk for a potential outbreak of cold Arctic air to develop late in November.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Tuesday 9 Nov - Thursday 18 Nov

Areas of low pressure lying to the north or northwest of the UK will bring changeable autumnal conditions at the start of the period, with active rain bands travelling across the UK, followed by showers and drier interludes, with occasional strong winds. Likely to be wettest with stronger winds in the northwest, whereas the driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast where rain bands will often be weak. There is an increased chance of wintry showers from the north and northwest towards the end of the period, initially over higher ground but also a risk they will occur at lower levels. Temperatures generally around average throughout this period, although milder interludes more prevalent at first, and colder interludes increasing possibly later on.

Friday 19 Nov - Friday 3 Dec

Through this period, the chance of wintry showers from the north and northwest continues over higher ground, but also a continuing risk they will occur at lower levels throughout the period. While there is little sign of prolonged, widespread settled weather, conditions are likely to be less stormy and windy. Where there are more settled spells, frost and fog are increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average. Overall remaining drier than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

So 3rd December it is everyone! 😃🌨❄

https://www.mylondon.news/weather/london-weather-exact-date-london-22075282

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning colder and drier heading into winter

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Friday 12 Nov - Sunday 21 Nov

Remaining changeable and autumnal particularly to the north through the start of this period as low-pressure systems dominate, where cloud and outbreaks of rain are most likely with the chance of persistent rain here, with occasional strong winds. Drier, brighter conditions are more likely in the southeast. There is an increasing risk of heavy, blustery showers in the north later in the period, whereas the driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast of the UK, with rain spreading to some southeastern areas at times. Temperatures expected to remain around average throughout this period, although milder interludes may be prevalent at first, and colder interludes increasingly possible later, where some wintry conditions are possible over higher ground in the north, with a slight risk at lower levels.

Friday 12 Nov - Sunday 21 Nov

Remaining changeable and autumnal particularly to the north through the start of this period as low-pressure systems dominate, where cloud and outbreaks of rain are most likely with the chance of persistent rain here, with occasional strong winds. Drier, brighter conditions are more likely in the southeast. There is an increasing risk of heavy, blustery showers in the north later in the period, whereas the driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast of the UK, with rain spreading to some southeastern areas at times. Temperatures expected to remain around average throughout this period, although milder interludes may be prevalent at first, and colder interludes increasingly possible later, where some wintry conditions are possible over higher ground in the north, with a slight risk at lower levels.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 12 Nov - Sunday 21 Nov

Remaining changeable and autumnal particularly to the north through the start of this period as low-pressure systems dominate, where cloud and outbreaks of rain are most likely with the chance of persistent rain here, with occasional strong winds. Drier, brighter conditions are more likely in the southeast. There is an increasing risk of heavy, blustery showers in the north later in the period, whereas the driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast of the UK, with rain spreading to some southeastern areas at times. Temperatures expected to remain around average throughout this period, although milder interludes may be prevalent at first, and colder interludes increasingly possible later, where some wintry conditions are possible over higher ground in the north, with a slight risk at lower levels.

Friday 12 Nov - Sunday 21 Nov

Remaining changeable and autumnal particularly to the north through the start of this period as low-pressure systems dominate, where cloud and outbreaks of rain are most likely with the chance of persistent rain here, with occasional strong winds. Drier, brighter conditions are more likely in the southeast. There is an increasing risk of heavy, blustery showers in the north later in the period, whereas the driest and brightest weather is likely to be in the southeast of the UK, with rain spreading to some southeastern areas at times. Temperatures expected to remain around average throughout this period, although milder interludes may be prevalent at first, and colder interludes increasingly possible later, where some wintry conditions are possible over higher ground in the north, with a slight risk at lower levels.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 

Identical forecasts I see? 🤔

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Just wanted to share the video Gav has uploaded re the EC 30 day outlook - still going for a colder than average month:

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

 

Colder trends to end November and start December

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Did anyone see the mass drumming spectacular and portrayal of the BBC news theme last night?

Well here is the Points West's weather presenter Ian Ferguson's contribution from his own kitchen......

https://mobile.twitter.com/fergieweather/status/1291511599740715013

Man of many talents.

Thursday 18 Nov - Saturday 27 Nov

Throughout this period, winds will often be blowing from the west or northwest, with some incursions of northerly winds possible. High pressure will often be close by to the south and southwest of the UK, bringing largely settled and dry conditions here, this possibly extending to all areas of the country at times. However, some spells of rain are likely to affect northern areas, accompanied by brisk winds. There is a possibility of a trend towards colder conditions later in the period, with a low risk of wintry showers in the north. Otherwise, temperatures are likely to be average to above average. However, under high pressure, frost and fog is likely overnight, this fog slow to clear during the morning.

Sunday 28 Nov - Sunday 12 Dec

Conditions remaining similar during late November and early December, with the northwesterly flow dominating. High pressure close by to the south and southwest will bring a good deal of dry and settled weather, where frost and fog is likely overnight, the fog often slow to clear in the morning. The weather will be more changeable further north, with spells of rain, and occasional strong winds, this interspersed with sunshine and showers. Temperatures above average overall, but short-lived colder spells are likely, with the risk of snow and ice, especially in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

BBC Weather forecaster this morning on the Today programme indicated a change in weather from this weekend with colder weather on its way.Any truth in this?

I'm fed up with the BBC presenter trying to imply the current weather is in some way pleasant and keep going on about it being mild . 10.8C is not mild for recent Novembers, it is at best average, and it doesn't feel mild with it being grey and dark and often drizzly!

Still the outlook for Wednesday is colder which I look forward to as it showed higher temperatures than today and sunny!

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