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Online Saint Snow  
#721 Posted : 16 October 2019 09:10:25(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: four Go to Quoted Post

You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg

 

Yep. We were at Alton Towers and it was bone-chillingly cold for the time of year. It had snowed there the day before and, in the morning as we were queuing to get there, we had a light flurry.

 

 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Online DEW  
#722 Posted : 16 October 2019 09:16:05(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: doctormog Go to Quoted Post

 

Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.

Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online Brian Gaze  
#723 Posted : 16 October 2019 09:19:54(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

 

Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.

 I never buy into the "too early" or "too late" line of thinking. In the UK if it snows in October or April my advice is enjoy it! Saving the synoptics for December or January doesn't work sadly.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Offline JOHN NI  
#724 Posted : 16 October 2019 12:01:19(UTC)
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0600 GFS ensemble seems to be gradually exhibiting more spread after about 24th - suggesting the transition to cold is unlikely to be as straightforward as some recent operational runs were implying. Not surprising really.
John.

The orange County of Armagh.

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#725 Posted : 16 October 2019 17:49:45(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Nah. GFS UKMO and ECMWF from 96,120,144hrs not that interesting for the UK at all.

And beyond that GFS has no idea at all- no cold Northerly flow being shown.

I guess the warmer and drier weather will return, but as it does- so will more wet and windy and cool weather or mild SW winds and heavy rain or showers mixed with sunnier spells.

Nothing special at all, it gets drier by Monday or even by Sunday I believe. 

Then Low Pressure could move in by the 24th and 25th October in it.

So diffficult for the UK to get colder weather in October, milder weather again forecasted by UKMO, GFS and ECMWF Models by Tuesday the 22nd October etc etc..

.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Whether Idle  
#726 Posted : 16 October 2019 18:18:54(UTC)
Whether Idle

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I'm beginning to sense that the remainder of October may be on the unsettled side, and notwithstanding the large amount of scatter in these central England ensembles. 

I do note that the precipitation spikes pick up again from 25th, so a resumption of the wetter and  unsettled theme is a distinct possibility at this stage, after somewhat of a respite later this week and early next.

 

 

 

Edit - In recent Octobers we've seen quite a few late plumey events.  Todays 12z GFS again plays around with this idea: one to watch and see if it is one that is dropped for a cold plunge as was showing on recent runs. 12z uppers for Halloween shown below:

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 16 October 2019 18:30:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

The Johnson Government had a choice on whether to tackle the virus hard- or let it spread- they've shown they care more for their money than they do for the health and the safety of the British People.
Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#727 Posted : 16 October 2019 19:51:15(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Good evening to all.

There appears to be a mixed signal from ECMWF model 12z that areas of Low Pressure and cool conditions have good chance of influencing UK NE Atlantic and North Europe Airmass set up.  
It is looking chilly but 23rd October showing up as less cool..

The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF are going to experience a few twists and turns in the next 5 days.

All to play for.  Cold air in Greenland and Arctic and Norwegian Sea North Atlantic and North Europe still looks quite potent and organised player in all this.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Online DEW  
#728 Posted : 17 October 2019 05:48:29(UTC)
DEW

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All change this morning. Next week's forecast HP only hanging on by the skin of its teeth, and sited to the east of the UK (NI/NW Scotland not getting much of a look in). ECM shows and early breakdown with local LP back by the end of the week, GFS a more comprehensive breakdown later with cold air from the NW. Only 3 or 4 of the GEFS runs have any sign of yesterday's northeasterlies. Big variations in ens temps

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online ballamar  
#729 Posted : 17 October 2019 08:59:58(UTC)
ballamar

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ECM at the end of the run comes true I am going to start selling plans on Ark building!
Offline tallyho_83  
#730 Posted : 17 October 2019 10:20:35(UTC)
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I see the the GFS models have backed off from that Northerly cold snap during the final week of month?!
Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline roadrunnerajn  
#731 Posted : 17 October 2019 11:40:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
ECM at the end of the run comes true I am going to start selling plans on Ark building!

I’m looking at selling my boat..... maybe I’ll wait a week or so....

Helston Cornwall 62m asl. Land of the eternal spring (13c and overcast mizzle)
Offline Russwirral  
#732 Posted : 17 October 2019 13:24:49(UTC)
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Not the first time the GFS has finiahed its run with major northerly blocking and northern europe into the freezer. Unusual for this early in the season.

Looks like we go from LP dictating things to HP... with that comes the risk of very low and very high temps... but mostly...drier weather :)

Online Saint Snow  
#733 Posted : 17 October 2019 14:39:30(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 Go to Quoted Post
I see the the GFS models have backed off from that Northerly cold snap during the final week of month?!

 

 

FFS 

"Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#734 Posted : 17 October 2019 18:08:32(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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.

The UKMO, GFS 12z runs today keep the UK under High Pressure for much of Next Week, very quiet week of Autumn weather expected.

The Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic to our North and NE, NNE Europe and Iceland plus Greenland and also NW Atlantic get some cold winter weather, but by Thursday and Friday the NW and North Atlantic see further West to East Moving Jetstream energy- with Low Pressure systems Undercutting the Greenland high, then undercut the SW side of the Cold Pool to our North and NE Lol.

.

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#735 Posted : 17 October 2019 18:20:20(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

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Location: Forest Gate London

.

The Blowtorch High is being shown by the ECMWF 12z, giving the UK nothing much- the NW Atlantic at 24-24-72-96 hrs is being shown to get only Scotland and NE Ireland some of the tip of the cold arctic air, but for much of the UK on Sunday at T96 hmm, cool and showery regime is being shown.

This model is agreed with the GFS and UKMO, but the ICON brings the Cold Arctic Northerly in by Thursday and Friday the 24th and 25th October et all.

So- on Wednesday- with 12z ECMWF run being awaited, we see fine settled high pressure over the UK, NE Europe get cold arctic air this coming Weekend, with a few days break then another NE Europe cold plunge from Wednesday onwards aka the 23rd Oct. 2019.

Low Pressure over the NW Atlantic next week as being shown at T96, for this Sunday 12z runs, 20th Oct., a large WAA wedge of air associated with a Deep NW Atlantic Low.  This is shown to cross NE Atlantic and push from the NW and North Atlantic to Southwest and SE of North and NE Europe (away from the UK).

The ECMWF 12z is not showing a mild SW flow in NW Atlantic but actually a cold arctic Plunge for North Atlantic- with massive blocking high- Greenland high, but less cold for West and SW side of Greenland next week. Iceland, Eastern Greenland and Svalbard plus Norwegian Sea and NE Europe seeing very cold spell indeed- is forecasted.

Edited by user 17 October 2019 19:30:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not Specified

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Online DEW  
#736 Posted : 18 October 2019 05:53:36(UTC)
DEW

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Similar sort of pattern to yesterday, but with GFS being more bullish about HP over the UK, stronger and continuing longer, though there's a close brush with a depression in the NW mid/late next week. ECM more hesitant about setting up an HP cell, bit indications are there. Most GEFS runs have temps at or slightly above average, and rainfall low, especially in the op and control runs.

One cautionary note - Hagibis has sent the jet stream into wild meanderings, and according to Weather for thee Week Ahead on BBC last night, this is badly handled by computer models. They were not really offering any forecast for as much as a week ahead. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20191018/00/159/hgt300.png 

Edited by user 18 October 2019 05:56:43(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online ballamar  
#737 Posted : 18 October 2019 21:13:31(UTC)
ballamar

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Trend for HP to be in control in 9-10 days with a nice blast of cold to the NE.

http://www.wetterzentral...maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Would be great in a month let’s hope it’s a repeating pattern

Online DEW  
#738 Posted : 19 October 2019 06:27:26(UTC)
DEW

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Originally Posted by: ballamar Go to Quoted Post
Trend for HP to be in control in 9-10 days with a nice blast of cold to the NE.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png
Would be great in a month let’s hope it’s a repeating pattern

Ten days is a long time in weather! Latest GFS charts show breakdown then with LP from SW.

High pressure generally present for a week or so after current LP fills and moves away in the next few days. GFS shows it as the fragile* tail ends of ridges, first from SW then from NW.  ECM more positive on a definite HP centre, FAX and GEFS show LP grazing the NW with rain for Scotland even in the middle of next week. S Britain notably dry until beginning of Nov

GEFS temps about average except that the op run is a notable cold outlier, as much as 5C below normal for several days

 

* Fragile in the sense that there are quite deep LPs on either side which could easily expand or move so as to displace the ridge

Edited by user 19 October 2019 07:04:36(UTC)  | Reason: clarification

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline Joe Bloggs  
#739 Posted : 19 October 2019 09:27:46(UTC)
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I see Iceland is about to get its first proper winter blast with bitter northerly winds and ice days with heavy snow showers in the north of the island. 

Quite a strong blocking theme over Greenland and the mid Atlantic which could give us some seasonal weather - however the Arctic flow looks likely to miss us with high pressure nudging in from the SE. 

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Offline AJ*  
#740 Posted : 19 October 2019 09:52:16(UTC)
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Location: Tonbridge, Kent

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

I see Iceland is about to get its first proper winter blast with bitter northerly winds and ice days with heavy snow showers in the north of the island. 

Quite a strong blocking theme over Greenland and the mid Atlantic which could give us some seasonal weather - however the Arctic flow looks likely to miss us with high pressure nudging in from the SE. 

Yes, when looking at the FAX charts for next Tuesday and Wednesday I was struck by the big HP area extending from north of Greenland to south of Newfoundland.  I don't remember seeing such a large HP in that location very often.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.
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